Investment Evolution Cre... Share Discussion Threads

[davius] 18/12/2008 11:06

Are there really enough funds short in this share to make sufficient gains to outweigh the likely profit from those long? There must be an ever decreasing number of shares available to loan, that should make it more and more difficult to go short as we get closer to the deadline. My guess is we're getting on for 80% commitment so far.

[cliffyburger] 18/12/2008 11:00

More from the FT on getting the vote in on time:

"Imperial Whip"

[togglebrush] 18/12/2008 10:50

I think the reaction to this Indian deadline is typical English Phlegm (calm indifference).

Phlegmatic English nation is something the Indians should be used to. There was a lovely line in the "Carry On Up the Khyber" ... something from Kenneth William as a Indian Nawab threatening Sidney James as District Commissioner "I spit on your English Phlegm"

[katsy] 18/12/2008 10:35

Yuka I think the current share price tells it's own story as to the risk involved. If the risk wasn't there we would be in the £12+ range now. None of us are that naive, we know we'll see a very low share price if 90% isn't reached and that's before anyone knows what ONGC will do next. I'm having enough sleepless nights without you adding to them.

[stuart14] 18/12/2008 10:33

That would be the very best way to start Christmas

[davius] 18/12/2008 10:30

SP up a tad and the level 2 order book looking firmer than of late. L2 has been distorted by a raft of sells at 1060p and above, including a 60K order at 1230p.

Removing buy and sell orders outside of the MMs lowest and highest prices and it's roughly bid volume 61K, offer volume 46K.

[yuka] 18/12/2008 10:23

Madjock - doubtless you've me filtered so you don't have to take your head out of the sand but to set the record straight I wasn't saying they won't get 90%. It was a hypothetical discussion as to what would happen IF they don't. Katsy was saying if they don't get 90% it was because 10% didn't like the price. I was saying it would be nothing to do with the price and hence a lower offer could still succeed if more time and if ONGC was happy not to have 90% at first stage. Fingers crossed they get 90% and 1250 goes through but mad not to consider possibilities and downside risk if they don't as imo not a hope in hell of them following through at 1250 in that scenario.

[pingu08] 18/12/2008 10:22

Did I read that EK is short here?

Only followed him once and took a small punt on eel when he went long on it 7 or so months back....that one really went well.... Hope he is as accurate in his view here lol!

[pingu08] 18/12/2008 10:15

Cheers Katsy, just had a thought that could have been PL's next trick had it been separated from the group

[katsy] 18/12/2008 10:12

Pingu08, No Rig, although a separate unit in the IEC umbrella of companies was never listed as a totally separate entity. So ONGC will get $90m of top of the range drilling rigs thrown into the bargain.

[pingu08] 18/12/2008 10:07

Did anything ever come of RIG? Is it included in the sale?

[togglebrush] 18/12/2008 10:06

Four and a half trading days left before 30th December deadline
Market Volumes since Tuesday 9th have been:-
Wed 3,364,844
Thu 1,663,419
Fri 1,047,171
Mon 1,429,242
Tue 1,032,549
Wed __877,507
Thu volume at 9.30 was 120,633 which suggest a final day below median

Half day Trading left ... Today ... Christmas Eve... 30th December (pre 1.00pm)
Full day Trading:- Friday, Monday, Tuesday

The on-market volumes are around the median for normal trading days. This would indicate NO special attention is being given to the share. Neither an excess of buyers or sellers but a gentle drift down in the share price suggests a lack of interest.

IMHO holders are just expecting and waiting for the deal to go through. Traders can get 10% to 20% daily movements on some Blue Chip shares and don't wish to tie up resources until 20 January or when ever the pay day is.

Median daily trading volume from Jun 2006 to 26 August (announcement date) was 742,436:
that volume from the rights issue on 6 May to 26 August was 1,123,312;
trading volume since 26 August has been 957,781.
Median is middle one of a sorted sample

[madjock2] 18/12/2008 10:05

We want buckfast! No solids either. They make you poorly.

[igranic] 18/12/2008 10:02

If they were not going to walk away at £12.50 they would be buying up shares in the market.
£12.50 or £6 - no brainer, 90% level will be reached.

[katsy] 18/12/2008 10:02

Madjock2 it'll only be 1.2p a serving North of the border, don't have to put any quality ingredients in. I've had a preview of the soup, it's tap water and Tenants Extra.

[madjock2] 18/12/2008 09:57

10p per serving. friggin luxury. Must be dan sath.

[squintyflinty] 18/12/2008 09:55

The tracker funds were my main fear.Institutions alone should carry this way over the 90%

[pingu08] 18/12/2008 09:54

A London based company this time then =:o-D

[squintyflinty] 18/12/2008 09:54

We are up to approx 70%that we know of .The tracker funds were holding 6.8%

[katsy] 18/12/2008 09:49

Pingu08 I heard he was getting into the mobile soup kitchen game to feed the millions of destitute and hungry people that this depression will bring. The government will pay him 10p a serving.

[cliffyburger] 18/12/2008 09:49

The key question for IEC is whether 90%+ of shareholders accept ONGC's offer of £12.50 a share. I am encouraged by this news from Standard Chartered (LSE: STAN):



"Standard Chartered PLC (the 'Company') today announces that under the terms of a 30 for 91 Rights Issue announced on 24 November 2008, valid acceptances have been received in respect of 96.95 per cent. of the total number of New Ordinary Shares offered to Shareholders."

So, STAN went cap in hand to its shareholders for more cash on 24 November. Within 24 days, almost 97% had taken up their rights and handed over more cash to STAN.

Hence, despite the short deadline for IEC acceptances (10 to 31 December is just 21 days), I am now more confident that the 90% line will be crossed. ;0)

Cliff

[katsy] 18/12/2008 09:47

Well that's two of Evils (Simon Clarwells) arguments for failure blown out of the water. Leahman Bros/tracker funds.

[pingu08] 18/12/2008 09:47

This is going through.

Wonder what PL will do next?

Retirement or next adventure already in the making with the cash he took out previously??