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Thierry Laduguie

Why Trend Following Systems Fail

13 Dec 2013 @ 11:51
Lately I’m hearing that many people are not making money trading the UK stock market. It’s not surprising, the FTSE 100 has gone sideways since May this year and because most people use trend-following systems when a trend does not persist – profits are hard to come by. However, if you are not a trend […]

A Contrarian Approach to Investing

05 Dec 2013 @ 11:58
Despite the recent good economic reports, sentiment remains bearish and the stock markets are staying down. As I have mentioned before the FTSE 100 is the leading index and the S&P 500 is now catching up with the FTSE 100. Companies listed on the FTSE 100 are exposed to emerging markets which are a barometer […]

An Extreme in Bullish Sentiment is a Warning Signal

27 Nov 2013 @ 12:25
Sentiment appears to be changing from bullish to bearish. The e-Yield Sentiment Indicator (ESI) moved to neutral after one of its components, the BTI, turned down yesterday. Sometimes the BTI will be down for a day or two then it will turn up again, this is what I call a false signal. To avoid false […]

Don't Be Fooled by the Stock Market Relentless Rise

14 Nov 2013 @ 12:22
In the world of stocks and shares sentiment plays a big part in the valuation of a stock. The basic relationship is that when stocks are expensive and sentiment is bullish stocks become dearer, and when stocks are cheap and sentiment is bearish they become cheaper. Remember the merger between AOL and Time Warner in […]

FTSE 100: Last Move Up Before the Trend Goes Sideways

29 Oct 2013 @ 16:04
The bull run in the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 tenaciously continues but perhaps a time for caution is just around the corner. Based on recent economic reports investor sentiment has reached an extreme level in optimism. Investors are optimistic that the Fed will continue to support and push stock markets higher but the irony […]

Bullish Sentiment Drives the S&P 500 To New Highs

23 Oct 2013 @ 11:51
The nonfarm payrolls report came in below estimates yet stock markets powered ahead yesterday. We are back to the situation where bad news is good news. Investors are addicted to stimulus so if the news is not favourable, the economy will weaken and the Fed will continue to print money. That’s why stock markets went […]

Relief Rally Should Drive The FTSE 100 Higher In The Short Term

16 Oct 2013 @ 11:43
The FTSE is up more than 200 points from the recent low, one of my sentiment indicators is still declining. This bearish divergence should disappear and I expect sentiment to turn bullish to confirm the uptrend. But right now volatility is picking up and this will continue until we have an agreement on the debt […]

FTSE 100: the tide is turning

09 Oct 2013 @ 15:31
At the start of year most traders and investors thought it would be an easy ride. After all the stock market has been climbing relentlessly in the last four years on the back of QE or, as I put it, the Fed’s manipulation program. Four years ago the stock market was in a precarious state […]

FTSE 100: Sideways or Down in the Short Term

02 Oct 2013 @ 11:24
Today’s re-test of the 21st August low at 6386 is not a positive development. Chances are the decline will continue but not before we see a decent counter trend bounce. I say this because the FTSE is oversold as indicated by my own timing indicators. In addition the 34-day BTI is oversold too. When the indicators […]

FTSE 100: Upward Zigzag to 6800

16 Sep 2013 @ 13:09
On Friday I questioned the validity of a third wave down as the 34-day BTI was near a bottom. Today’s strong open would appear to support the alternate scenario, the FTSE is not at the start of the next major decline, instead the index is in the midst of an advance. Markets can change direction […]
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