Matt Simpson

Gold Miners Could Shine In The Current Trading Environment We’re keeping a close eye on the ratio between gold miners ETF (GDX) against gold (XAU). We can see on the weekly chart that gold miners are trying to outperform the underlying metal, after hitting a major low in late 2016. Whilst the ratio corrected between […]

Weekly COT Report: USD Bullish Interest Drops To a 14-Month low As of Tuesday 20th of August: Traders were net-long USD $10.9 bn, down from $12.3 the prior week (-$1.41 bn). Against G10 currencies, traders were net-long by $14.5 bn, down -$0.95 form the prior week. Net-long exposure on the yen increased for a 3rd consecutive […]

Price action on the gold/silver ratio suggests a correction could be underway, to Silver’s advantage. It goes without saying that gold has had a stellar couple of months and, given the backdrop of global negative yields and the potential for a Fed easing cycle (even though they currently deny this), we expect gold’s trend to […]

Canada’s inflation surprised to the upside yesterday, providing CAD with a boost and further lowering expectations for a cut. At 2% it remains at their centre band of the 1-3% target and, so far, we’ve not seen the ‘inflationary dip’ outlined in July’s MPR and policy statement, so CPI is technically outperforming their expectations for […]

Market Brief: Trump Leans On Fed Ahead Of Jackson Hole Trump says the Fed need to be proactive and cut interest rates and they should cut by a minimum of a full percentage point over ‘a period of time’. He’d also love to reduce capital gains tax. RBA’s Governor Lowe is reported to have called […]

A potential head and shoulders top pattern has been forming on copper prices since August 2018. With China continuing to show signs of a slowdown, weaker copper prices underline global growth concerns and will only add to the negative sentiment if they break lower. Of course, this will have a material impact on copper miners […]

Since RBNZ surprised markets with a 50 bps cut this month, NZD/JPY has coiled below key resistance as it builds up energy for its next directional move. How prices react around resistance could be the key for way it breaks next. Whilst we see the area around 69.30 as pivotal, we are open to a […]

Whilst AUD remained confined within its range, we continue to look out for range expansion. Summary of RBA’s August minutes Further easing is widely expected around the world AUD recent fall to support exports Consumption supported by tax rebates and stabilisation in housing market Reasonable to expect an extended period of low rates Appropriate to […]

Weekly COT Report: Yen Remains In Demand As of Tuesday 13th August: Traders were net-long USD by $12.3bn overall, and $16.6bn against G10 currencies Large speculators are their most bullish on the Japanese yen since November 2016 The yen also saw the largest weekly change among FX majors, with traders adding +14.2k contracts to their […]

With Gold prices stretched and Bitcoin Around Key support, convergence could be approaching. In previous analysis we’ve highlighted a positive (although imperfect) correlation between Bitcoin and USD/CNY. And in recent times we’ve seen Bitcoin and gold rise in tandem during bouts of risk off, although we can see the relationship has broken down these past […]