08 Jan 2024 @ 13:48
The latest ISM and PMI reports and the strength of the labour market have made it clear that the worrying predictions about the US economy are overblown. In other words, the likelihood of a hard landing and recession seems to be ruled out. However, this is not great news for markets, as it increases the […]
02 Jan 2024 @ 09:55
Headwinds in the form of rising geopolitical tensions did not prevent US inflows in 2023 from breaking all-time records and pushing indices to all-time highs. Against the backdrop of Santa’s rally, stable energy prices and cooling inflation, analysts began to upgrade their equity forecasts for the coming years. Specifically, Yardeni now expects the S&P 500 […]
18 Dec 2023 @ 14:18
The central bank week did not bring any surprises as the ECB, Fed, and BoE kept interest rates unchanged, giving investors hope about the end of monetary policy tightening. The good news is that although the rhetoric of the chairmen of the regulators remains hardline, the data suggest that inflation is finally receding as the […]
11 Dec 2023 @ 14:11
Neither interest rates, the economic slowdown, nor even the introduction of AI have caused the labour market to collapse. It continues to improve like there is no tomorrow. Who is responsible for such resilience? The unexpected drop in the US unemployment rate to 3.7% in November, down from 3.9% in October, is not so much […]
04 Dec 2023 @ 13:26
With inflation falling and the economy still resilient, expectations grew that the Federal Reserve could soon change the course of monetary policy without pushing the economy into recession. In particular, investor optimism was boosted by news that the US core PCE index slowed to a 30-month low of 3.5% and rose 0.2% month-on-month, below its […]
27 Nov 2023 @ 12:58
Money seems to grow on trees: once again, online shopping during Black Friday in the United States set a new record. This time, the figure was 9.8 billion dollars, an increase of 7.5% over the previous year. Cyber Monday sales did not disappoint either, reaching $12 billion. Overall, there are no apparent signs of the […]
20 Nov 2023 @ 14:45
Against the backdrop of slowing inflation and falling oil prices, euphoria returned to the markets. At last, investors seem convinced that the rate hike cycle is over. Perhaps this will be the case, and the Fed will heed the latest data and return to dovish rhetoric. The issue is that the longer-term outlook for the […]
13 Nov 2023 @ 13:27
Although the pandemic may seem to be behind us, its impact is still being felt. And it’s not just about rising prices and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, but also about a change in people’s behaviour. Suddenly, many realised that working from home is not so bad. However, this change in mindset has had […]
06 Nov 2023 @ 14:31
The central banks’ week brought no surprises. For starters, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 5.25% per annum. They expect a significant decline in inflation, projecting it to fall to 4.75% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and further to 3.75% in the second quarter of 2024 from the current 6.7%. Looking […]
30 Oct 2023 @ 14:00
The U.S. economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, exceeding the 4.3% forecast. It should be recalled that in the second quarter, the figure was only 2.1%. Even so, US ten-year bond yields fell. This means that markets do not believe it will affect the direction of monetary policy. Rather, no further rate hikes […]