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Igor Kuchma

Macro Is Leading The Dance

04 Dec 2023 @ 13:26
With inflation falling and the economy still resilient, expectations grew that the Federal Reserve could soon change the course of monetary policy without pushing the economy into recession. In particular, investor optimism was boosted by news that the US core PCE index slowed to a 30-month low of 3.5% and rose 0.2% month-on-month, below its […]
 

What could stop the upward trend?

27 Nov 2023 @ 12:58
Money seems to grow on trees: once again, online shopping during Black Friday in the United States set a new record. This time, the figure was 9.8 billion dollars, an increase of 7.5% over the previous year. Cyber Monday sales did not disappoint either, reaching $12 billion. Overall, there are no apparent signs of the […]
 

Euphoria returns to the markets, but for how long?

20 Nov 2023 @ 14:45
Against the backdrop of slowing inflation and falling oil prices, euphoria returned to the markets. At last, investors seem convinced that the rate hike cycle is over. Perhaps this will be the case, and the Fed will heed the latest data and return to dovish rhetoric. The issue is that the longer-term outlook for the […]
 

The Commercial Real Estate Problem Is Far From Over

13 Nov 2023 @ 13:27
Although the pandemic may seem to be behind us, its impact is still being felt. And it’s not just about rising prices and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, but also about a change in people’s behaviour. Suddenly, many realised that working from home is not so bad. However, this change in mindset has had […]
 

Banks Leave Interest Rates Unchanged

06 Nov 2023 @ 14:31
The central banks’ week brought no surprises. For starters, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 5.25% per annum. They expect a significant decline in inflation, projecting it to fall to 4.75% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and further to 3.75% in the second quarter of 2024 from the current 6.7%. Looking […]
 

Tradingview Weekly Market Wrap Monday 30 October 2023

30 Oct 2023 @ 14:00
The U.S. economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, exceeding the 4.3% forecast. It should be recalled that in the second quarter, the figure was only 2.1%. Even so, US ten-year bond yields fell. This means that markets do not believe it will affect the direction of monetary policy. Rather, no further rate hikes […]
 

Markets React With Uncertainly To Powell Speech

23 Oct 2023 @ 13:14
Unsurprisingly, Jerome Powell stated in his recent speech that a strong economy and a stable labour market may require a further interest rate hike. According to the Fed chief, the regulator is committed to bringing it back to the 2% target, but they will proceed cautiously to achieve this. He also acknowledged that inflation is […]
 

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates again?

16 Oct 2023 @ 14:03
Unemployment is at historic lows, and GDP is above expectations, so one would think that markets should be soaring, reaching new highs or at least on track to do so. However, in the last six months, the markets have returned to where they were six months ago, albeit experiencing ups and downs. What could be […]
 

Should We Worry About A US Recession?

11 Oct 2023 @ 08:36
On the first day of the new fiscal year in the United States, the country’s national debt rose from $33.167 trillion to $33.442 trillion, setting a new record. Still the markets didn’t seem to care much about the historic event. What did capture their attention was an increase in the┬ánumber of new non-farm jobs┬áto 336,000, […]
 

Why markets remain under pressure and what to follow next

25 Sep 2023 @ 14:28
Despite the recent pickup in inflation, driven primarily by rising energy prices, the Federal Reserve chose to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 5.25-5.5% range. However, the markets still went down. Jerome Powell’s “hawkish” speech, in which he stressed that the pause in interest rate hikes does not signal the end of the […]
 
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