Ebiquity Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 12/5/2024 20:53

Another reason for them touting the £535M potential fee income - they may want to raise cash for acquisitions = dilution. £535M+ potential fee income sounds magnificent and can turn heads to help raise cash.

Frankly, they haven't proven they can extract full value so let's hope they don't raise until they have done so and the share price is much higher.

The current delays on GMP365 from 3 yrs to 4 yrs by the looks of it is less than edifying and the 6.8% revenue growth, although the economic backdrop was poor, is less than electric.

From my memory, they didn't outline how they intend to attack the potential £535M fee income - they left it hanging like a carrot.

[p1nkfish] 12/5/2024 09:54

Do they have the products able to access the Fee Income potential?
Do they have the management able to exploit the opportunity?

The 6.8% revenue growth won't do it in anything like a reasonable time frame.

Something has to change because what we see in the public domain doesn't look sufficient to turn this into a company able to exploit what it has ahead of it - or there is more going on than we are made aware of?

Is there anyone else here to throw another angle on it?

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2024 17:06

They service 70 of the top 100 global advertisers with the total ad spend being around $100Bn annually. Add in the long tail and it's higher. I don't know what the total would be but $130Bn probably isn't a ridiculous number.

Total fee income could be c 0.49% of the global total spend, say $1.2/£, possibly a lower % depending on ad spend growth.

Where this takes us:

1) How quickly can they show traction? The current revenue growth rate appears anemic - when will we see up a gear?

2) Digital transformation is to increase efficiency - but what are they doing to access the extra fee income opportunity as quickly as possible?

3) On current trajectory of revenue growth of 6.8% in 2023 (from £75.1M - £80.2M) we will all be much older before it reaches even £150M. Rules of 72 suggests > 10 years.

Some catalyst needed to spur revenue growth else it will be bought out or competition will eat their lunch.

Is management up to the job of accessing a decent % of the £535M in a reasonable time frame?
Does it need more drive or do they have a plan we don't know about?

They have stated what the potential fee income ranges are - now we need to see action to get there and some hint of a plan.

The IMC was OK but now I have more questions than answers.

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2024 16:33

This is from EBIQUITY - their own presentation,

Media Management - Estimated fee income opportunity – c £30-40m
Media Performance - Estimated fee income opportunity - c £100-200m
Contract Compliance - Estimated total fee income opportunity – c £30m

Marketing Effectiveness - UK market – estimated fee income opportunity c £75m
US market – c 5x (say 4x, c £300M)

Take the lower of all of those figures to be conservative and EBIQUITY are saying they see an estimated fee income opportunity of c £535M - hence huge.

It's all to play for and absolutely critical for EBQ to digitise as quickly as possible, move fast.

[p1nkfish] 10/5/2024 17:13

ITV has been perky, not a bad sign.

[p1nkfish] 08/5/2024 23:46

Sum all the estimated total fee income opportunities on the presentation - hence the world "huge".

I don't see an obvious reason why Deloitte wouldn't be interested in Ebiquity, together they could be formidable. Deloitte have extensive global capabilities and strong in digital.

[p1nkfish] 08/5/2024 10:17

8th May - indicates market may be turning, worth a read:

[p1nkfish] 07/5/2024 21:39

It comes down to getting the rate of transformation back on track and what rate of uptake of new product offerings that are in test. Do that and 50% upside is conservative imho.

If the non-Exec Chairmain is not known for hyperbole then this statement is interesting, if they can execute: "The market opportunity for Ebiquity is huge........"

DYOR etc.

[p1nkfish] 07/5/2024 18:41

Big stand-out are 2 costs:

a) Transformation - slower than expected, the sooner completed properly the better to at least reduce costs incurred during the process. Ultimately should lead to higher productivity but have to wonder what delay has set them behind schedule.

b) Costs of aborted acquisition close to £1.8M in fees etc. Have to wonder what size acquisition it was. How much was fees for advice and how much paid to the target once they aborted - looks careless - can't afford a repeat.

The opportunity set is huge, lots to look forward to, execution critical.
Would suggest they get a) right first before risking another acquisition attempt.

[p1nkfish] 07/5/2024 07:24

Foundations appear laid for re-rate. Have to reread later today when have time but forward look appears good with new product offering potential, more efficient operations and growth opportunities.

States clearly the market opportunity is "huge".

Need more time to read slowly.

Analysts call today, IMC tomorrow. Won't get to take part due to travel.

GLA, dyor etc.

Imho, if they get 2024 & 2025 right, this can multi-bag. I'm often wrong though.

[p1nkfish] 01/5/2024 22:25

Advertising for a "Change Manager" and the way I read it they are serious about Automation and AI. Service more customers, more quickly and address a longer tail with less friction. It will feed through to the bottom line.

"Context:

Ebiquity’s executive leadership team continues to evolve the organisation’s target operating model to facilitate deployment of emerging technologies (such as automation and AI), address clients’ evolving media analysis needs and to tap the diverse range of skills across the organisation’s team of media specialists around the globe. In order to ensure that Ebiquity rapidly achieves the business benefits of deploying the target operating model, the business seeks to appoint an Interim Change and Communications Manager who will bring a robust change management skill-set, a proven playbook of change management processes and tools and a well-honed ability to accelerate adoption of organisational change. This is an exciting role that would suit a results-oriented Change and Communications Manager who can equip the colleagues of this well-regarded professional services business to support the continuous evolution of the organisation’s target operating model and embrace the diverse range of opportunities this presents."

[p1nkfish] 30/4/2024 15:56

Probably not a lot of free stock floating about sub 40p?

[p1nkfish] 30/4/2024 15:29

Interesting to see it wake up today a week before the audited results.

I am of the opinion this is undervalued and if the forward look is good it could recover towards 50p+.

I'm often wrong, dyor etc.

[p1nkfish] 26/4/2024 17:21

No worries, thought I was the only one here.

EBQ has a great deal of promise if they can execute but need to be a little more investor savvy imho.

[lookagain] 26/4/2024 16:19

Sorry meant email address not link

[p1nkfish] 26/4/2024 14:44

There was no link only email address to apply to be added to the list?

[lookagain] 26/4/2024 10:02

The link provided in RNS for webcast does not work.

[p1nkfish] 26/4/2024 09:30

7th May for results and analysts presentation.

[p1nkfish] 25/4/2024 09:54

Hope EBQ put their audit out to tender again with bid criteria including more than just cost. Something doesn't strike me as right when an auditor has a business unit that may also be a competitor.

Also, forward look should ideally indicate how AI is helping drive business. What are EBQ doing with it now and have planned for the future?

“Media planning and buying will be revolutionized…; the major holding companies probably employ about 200 to 250,000 people in media planning and buying. There will not be this amount of people in three years’ time. The headcount will be drastically reduced because US$650bn on the digital side of the media industry can be reduced by algorithm” – Sir Martin Sorrell, founder and executive chairman, S4 Capital, speaking at Spikes Asia.

Sourced from Spikes Asia 

[p1nkfish] 24/4/2024 14:56

Sooner we get a forward look via the results the better.

[p1nkfish] 23/4/2024 20:55

Can't remember seeing these type of open recs in USA for EBQ before now? Currently travelling in US and this came across my feed. Two open.

[p1nkfish] 22/4/2024 21:08

Rebound expected in 2024, can only add to whatever 2023 results were -

[p1nkfish] 19/4/2024 17:05

Interested to see if the audited finals are accompanied by any news thereafter.
7 day window if they meet the 2nd half of April target.

[p1nkfish] 14/4/2024 23:04

Audited results and some forward look within 2 weeks.