Totally Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 26/4/2024 18:43

"Expect" seems a bit of a stretch given the limited volume.

But if they can "surprise" to the upside with a TU which shows decent cash generation and a more positive "current trading" assessment then you could be rewarded with a decent pop.

Have a look at what happened to Carclo today. By coming out with a TU which stated things were going a bit better and they hadn't breached their covenants last year they saw a 75% jump in their shareprice on the day. And that's despite reporting net debt was still £30m. So when sentiment is awful even a modest beat can do wonders for the shareprice.

[nobbygnome] 26/4/2024 18:10

A good end to the week with some chunky buys this morning. It would appear we can expect a more than satisfactory trading update…

[sikhthetech] 23/4/2024 16:44

1gw,

How's that evidence coming along to back up your assertion of materal institution selling from 27th July to end of H1 or were you just making it up as per usual?

Evidence I've posted shows there wasn't any.

AR of 27th July, total holdings > 3%
91,754,158

AGM result: unanimously voted for majority of the resolutions
91,552,076


91m in July and similar voted in Sept.

There is NO evidence of material institution selling between July and end of H1.

The shares were manipulated by you and your mates with the multiple ids.

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2024 20:37

Up to 20% of NHS EC Patients now being treated by Private Hospitals!!

Facts by HSJ and not spins, fabricated stories


Revealed: The ICBs most reliant on private hospitalsBy James Illman23 February 2024 Bath
Up to 20 per cent of NHS elective patients are now being treated by private hospitals in some areas, analysis by HSJ suggests.

[sikhthetech] 21/4/2024 18:44

1gw,

"Is it not reasonable to highlight evidence that offers a different perspective to some of the other posts?"

Nothing wrong with opinions. As I've repeatedly said:
If bull points can be countered then it makes the bear case stronger.
If bear points can be countered then it makes the bull case stronger.

As evidenced, virtually all your stories, suggestions have turned out to be false, ficticious.


"Yes there have been some holdings notices showing other major holders increasing, but it looks like there has been material net selling by the major holders listed in the annual report (as of late July) doesn't it? This is consistent with the share price trend since then, isn't it?"

No, look at the evidence. I said in Sept that there was no evidence of significant selling by institutions (note, significant and plural institutions). The evidence backs that assertion and you have been proven wrong.


AR of 27th July, total holdings > 3%
91,754,158

AGM result: unanimously voted for majority of the resolutions
91,552,076


91m in July and similar voted in Sept.


There is NO evidence of institutions selling between July and H1.


"And various posts by the thread owner suggesting there is no evidence of institutions selling and that the sustained shareprice decline is due to manipulation."


The share price continued to fall from around 20p in July to 10p in Sept.
Hundreds of trades, yet only a few PIs, no significant selling by institutions. So evidence suggests share price was manipulated.


I said last Sept until Jan (3 months ago, shortly after new chairman started) there was no evidence of significant selling by institutions.
Again, you're misrepresenting what I've actually said as you and your mates normally do.
There wasn't any significant selling by institutionS. We've now moved beyond fy 2024 and are now in H1 2025.


Feel free to provide the evidence of significant selling by institutions July to H1 2024.

Sounds like share price being manipulated by PIs, don't you think?






As to Stonehage:

You claimed in December that attention shifts to them

1gw - 04 Dec 2023 - 18:26:49 - 20781 of 21163 Totally Health - 2014 onwards - TLY
So attention now shifts to Stonehage, perhaps. In July they added (at 11-12p?), saying:

<...>
Will they see the opportunity to do the same again, or are they going to feel more exposed given Sneller's sale and the collapse in shareprice since they bought in July. At 12.2% declared in July they now hold more than twice as much as any other declared holder (Columbia Threadneedle at 5.9%).


Yet only 5 days after your post, Stonehage increased their holding!!! So you were proven wrong there as well





Given you portray yourself as a well researched poster, why do virtually all your stories turn out to be ficticious? Why do virtually all your and your mates shares crash (byot down 99%, trmr down 80%, rthm down 80% etc etc etc) ?
How many multiple ids do you have and why?

Btw, your post not in 'top posts' again. Multiple ids???

[1gw] 21/4/2024 10:39

Is it not reasonable to highlight evidence that offers a different perspective to some of the other posts?

For example your post 21185 suggesting an II "just bought 2.55 million" as evidence that a fundraising is not expected.

And various posts by the thread owner suggesting there is no evidence of institutions selling and that the sustained shareprice decline is due to manipulation.

What we actually have is clear evidence that Richard Sneller sold down below 3% or below approx 6m shares (and quite probably out altogether) from a position given in the annual report as 9% and 17.7m shares.

And perhaps more troubling for the bulls ahead of the expected TU is Friday's evidence that Ameriprise (Columbia Threadneedle) has just gone down to 4.7% and 9.2m shares from a position given in the annual report as 7.4% and 14.6m shares.

Yes there have been some holdings notices showing other major holders increasing, but it looks like there has been material net selling by the major holders listed in the annual report (as of late July) doesn't it? This is consistent with the share price trend since then, isn't it?

[nobbygnome] 19/4/2024 19:46

But some have increased. Why always focus on the negatives? Of course we all know why and it’s nothing to do with TLY!

[1gw] 19/4/2024 18:43

So that's now 2 of the then 3 biggest shareholders selling down materially since the annual report analysis (27th July).

[grahamburn] 19/4/2024 17:48

Wonder whether the two holdings RNS have some connection? Trafalgar have increased their position by getting on for 1.5%, whilst Minneapolis have reduced their position by just 1%.

[1gw] 19/4/2024 17:47

So Ameriprise [Columbia Threadneedle in the Annual Report & on the website] look to have sold 5.4m shares since 27th July (annual report figure), or possibly since 6th February (last update of Totally website shareholder page, but perhaps not a complete register analysis).

They've dropped from 7.4% to 4.7% (14.6m shares to 9.2m shares).

They must be an institution subject to the 5%, 10% disclosure regime (rather than 5%, 6%, 7%,...) as the previous notification referred to in today's holdings notice is I think when they went through 5% on the way up back in November 2018.

[nobbygnome] 19/4/2024 16:12

An II just bought 2.55 million. They clearly aren’t expecting a fund raise but of course the trolls know better…㈳4;

[pierre oreilly] 19/4/2024 15:38

1m trades are delayed by the se system. Probably by days for such a multiple of nms. Hence that's what drove the price down over the last week.

I've questioned what shreek knows about investing for a while now. Another misunderstanding of the absolute basics if he thinks the trade was a buy.

[sikhthetech] 19/4/2024 14:17

Good to see a 1.1m buy yesterday afternoon.

[pierre oreilly] 18/4/2024 16:28

Always an anxious time when trading updates are due for companies like this. When it's fallen from 80p to 4p (all the while being told to buy by shreek btw) you have to question whether the odd contract will save it. Obviously, I'd say, the cfo thought not. Not sure of her options, but if she did a runner, she must have valued her options at zilch.

Amongst the spin and guff, I'll be keeping an eye on the cash position, and burn rate and estimating the time to a cash raising, or worse, from those. I'll also be looking for what contributed to the cash in the last few months, since I worked out they should have none left - so look for drawdowns of debt facilities.

Not one for me - I prefer Vegas where at least I get free drinks as I gamble. I also go for mush lower risk cos with high cash balances and demonstrably growing businesses with already high share price appreciation. Seems odd to me why a few go for the exact opposite (and quickly lose 95% of their money). Still, each to their own, and there's always shreek to cheer you up saying how great everything is.

Edit - If you question why shreek has a monopoly on his ttly thread and states outrageous claims with no one questioning him - well he simply bans those who do! So much for share discussions. Beware people who censor others because they can't answer the points they raise. Maybe people could have exited at 80p instead of sitting on 4p if points questioning shreek's ramps were allowed to be posted.

[sikhthetech] 18/4/2024 15:08

GBCol,

Absolutely,

According to their website, the fy TUs over the past 4 years have been mid to late April or early May.


Last 2 years, post Covid, the fy TU has been late April or 1st week in May.
2020 20th Apr TU for fy2020
2021 13th Apr TU for fy2021
2022 25th Apr TU for fy2022
2023 2nd Mar TU for fy2023
2023 2nd May TU for fy2023


I don't know many companies with c40% held by institutions and where there is huge demand for their services, as the NHS continues to struggle and the govn must reduce the waiting lists.
A company which provides it's services in all 4 UK Nations and Republic of Ireland and made £55m revenues in H1. A company which is trusted by the NHS, as evidenced by the national contracts they were awarded.

[gbcol] 18/4/2024 10:37

For the last few years trading updates have been released between mid-April and early May, so could drop anytime.

[savagedstock] 18/4/2024 10:29

is there any timeline on the TU please? I look into this from time to time, so appreciate the comments. I can still see the positive news side of things (outsourcing etc), but in my (very small) interactions with the NHS, I think there is a real crisis in both funding, confidence and strategy....and with an election looming, it feels that decisions are being delayed.
Interested to see talk of TLY going private, i did allude to that while back as being a classic PE play....guaranteed cashflow and aggressive cost-cutting to be able to sell it on in a couple of years. However I am not sure the IIs will support this, given their entry price...unless the TU pops the price up to the 10p level...

[sikhthetech] 17/4/2024 17:51

1gw,

Again, you're showing your lack of understanding of the business/sector, like you did at Byot, trmr, rthm etc.


As my previous post, there are problems which impacted the NHS and therefore, TLY. Those problems were highlighted by the company over the past year or so.

As per my previous post, given the share price is below nominal value, I fully expect some CA, which could include capital reorganisation or going private.


Now +ves:

Both Labour and Tories have endorsed the use of private companies to bring down waiting lists.
TLY provides it's services in all 4 UK Nations AND Republic of Ireland.
NHS have endorsed TLY services, which is evidenced by the national contracts awarded to them.

Over £55m revenues in H1, so expecting around £100m for fy.
c40% held by institutions and some increased. So TLY management are backed by significant holdings by IIs.

New Chairman was co-founder of Liberum and has been buying shares. He's obviously got contacts with IIs, who would back the company.

Consultants strike has ended
Wage inflation should have reduced considerably

Mcap only £9m.


-ves:
Junior Doctors strike is still ongoing. That is the biggest problem facing the NHS, not what you and your mates have suggested.

Sp is below nominal value. Obviously the share price was manipulated lower to get to this position in order to force TLY to act and for you to massage your ego and try and prove you have got something, 1 thing right.

Therefore, I expect CA, which could be capital restructuring as they did in 2019 or going private.
I have no problem if they go private because the company clearly has demand for it's services. The company is clearly trusted by the NHS. I would welcome the company going private and fully back it.

If the company goes private and then they can concentrate or building the business without the distraction of muppets manipulating the share price Then they can come back in 2-3 years time in a much stronger position.
Unlike Byot, where the BoD are not trusted. They go private and it's likely Byot will still go into administration.


I'm aware of the risks/rewards and happy with them.

[1gw] 17/4/2024 16:44

I think the main risk to share price is probably the new chairman deciding that they need to sort the balance sheet out, isn't it? If that means a big clear-out of goodwill and a big raise (in relation to market cap) then it's probably going to get ugly (or uglier) - particularly if he decides to follow the recent trend of delistings to sort things out less publicly.

On the other hand if they've managed to generate a meaningful amount of cash over 2H and indicate that they can continue to generate cash going forward then there may well be a relief rally.

[nobbygnome] 17/4/2024 12:12

I certainly don’t expect the TU to be glowing but if it’s half decent the price will go up because the current price is madness

[bmcollins] 15/4/2024 15:24

"money moved to APH"
Who cares?

[blackhorse23] 15/4/2024 15:01

Money moved to APH

[sikhthetech] 14/4/2024 20:48

The fy TU should be published within the next few days.

There's an increasing demand for Elective Surgery.
We know H1 revenues were £55.8m

Both Labour and Tories have stated they want increasing use of private providers within the NHS. Therefore, any political risk is derisked.

I'm expecting the current stated difficulties to have continued, although wage inflation is likely to be under control now.

Given the share price is below nominal value, I'm expecting CA, reorganisation etc.

The outlook will be the important comments.