Totally Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 10/1/2024 07:51

So how does the £13m relate to the statement in the interims about potentially doubling the original value thanks to the additional winter capacity?

"The additional capacity agreed for the period 1 October and 2023 to 31 March 2023 has the potential to double the revenue originally confirmed for the original NHS 111 resilience contract."

[parob] 10/1/2024 07:41

Yep £10M to £13M.Market cap is currently just over £9M.

[trotterstrading] 10/1/2024 07:28

30% increase in contract size too, nice

[parob] 10/1/2024 07:23

Totally Urgent Care awarded contract extension worth c.GBP13 million p.a. to provide national contingency support for NHS 111Totally plc (AIM: TLY), a leading provider of frontline healthcare services, corporate fitness and wellbeing services across the UK and Ireland, is pleased to announce it has been awarded a contract extension by NHS England to provide national NHS 111 contingency services for a further year.The contract, awarded to Vocare Limited ("Vocare"), part of Totally Urgent Care, will run for 12 months from 16 February 2024 at a value of c.GBP13 million per annum.

[t-trader] 09/1/2024 15:50

The more Sikh pumps this share, the lower it goes!

The more he deramps on the house building threads the higher they go.

Luckily I’m invested in house builders and not here.

But its worth noting the trend that has developed, do the opposite of what Sikh does and you can’t go far wrong :)

[pierre oreilly] 04/1/2024 15:44

Oh what a tangled web we weave eh shreek?

So the man appointed Chair spends 75k on the company he's made chair of. Were that you, it would be more than your net worth, but to Simon, I expect its peanuts and less than 10% of his last year's bonus.

Now what has slipped your mind in your advice to Mr Oz, is that another industry professional about the same time, sold at least 6% of the whole of tly. So, not a 1.5m buy by an interested party, but a massive sell by an established holder who has obviously given up any hope of tly, and is cutting his losses. I think that's about a 12,000,000 sell isn't it?

Funny how a 1.5m buy (would have been unusual had he not bought) you report to Mr oz, yet a 12m sell was 'overlooked'.

Anyhow, any theories on why Mr Sneller (from my old uni) bailed? Didn't he read your posts on how fantastic tly is?

Ref rns 4 dec 23

My advice to readers is carefully check everything Mr Shreek tells you. He's at the very best completely disingenuous in his posts.

[sikhthetech] 04/1/2024 12:07

Mr Oz

Not just contracts.


Facts
Simon Stilwell appointment as Chair, starting this week.
Being ex-founder of Liberum, ex-director of Company Growth Investor Ltd and current director of Gresham plc, he should have a lot of contacts with investing community.

Simon also bought 1.5 shares using his own money.

Around 40% held by Institutions and some were increasing recently.



None of 1gw's deramping stories pre-H1 have come true.
Hundreds of trades, small sells, coupled with a surge in deramping stories - coincidence??

[mr.oz] 04/1/2024 10:44

Yes, some decent contract news would see this in double figs.

[netcurtains] 04/1/2024 10:27

Yes - I put this through my little system last night and it came up poor.

I sold with a small loss (£80)..... Back to the drawing board...

No offence to anyone - I should stick to my own systems and not take 'tips' from others (not a tip just listened to the story) - it never works for me. Alas.

But now 've done this its bound to go up loads... It does have a lot going for it from points of view that are not within the parameters of my normal buying system...

[netcurtains] 04/1/2024 09:02

Its back to normal now....

I wonder what that was all about?

[netcurtains] 04/1/2024 08:54

a lot of hectic trading going on (IG have it set to "Call to close")...

[1gw] 03/1/2024 19:22

I was just demonstrating that you were being disingenuous when you made the statement:

"They had only £7.5m 4 years ago and they still managed to grow during covid, even though some of their services were closed."

Their growth was locked in because of the placing/acquisition made before covid. They were a beneficiary of covid-related contracts and it can be argued that they then (perhaps recklessly?) paid for a further acquisition by leveraging the cash generated by those negative working capital contracts.

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 18:16

1gw,
"Greenbrook acquisition completed in June 2019 (i.e. part way through FY20) so revenue growth from FY19 to FY20 is mainly due to Greenbrook "

Again, which was why I posted the figures from 2019 onwards. I didn't exclude 2019, did I?


"So a lot of the growth has been funded by placings/subscriptions"
I don't know if you know but companies raise money to grow the business. It's not a new concept.
Unlike, Byot where they had an emergency fund raise just to survive and still losing cash. Yet you have no problems with that. That shows your agenda.


TLY bought GBK/Vocare etc to adapt to NHS requirements.
As in my earlier post, that's what companies do, adapt.

Without GBK/Vocare, there would be no Urgent Care division, would there?.

They have already said they are acquisitive. If they find another suitable acquisition then they will raise funds to grow the business.

So the BoD have done exactly what they said they will do?


sikhthetech3 Jan '24 - 15:32 - 20932 of 20937 Edit
<...>

They had only £7.5m 4 years ago and they still managed to grow during covid, even though some of their services were closed.

2019 £78m, £7.5m, £1.1m
2020 £105m, £8.9m, £4m
2021 £113M, £14.8m, £5m
2022 £127.4m, £15.3m, £6.2m
2023 £135.7m, £6.5m, £6.9m
H12024 £55.8m, £1.7m, £0.6m

[1gw] 03/1/2024 17:40

Posts 20933, 20935

Greenbrook acquisition completed in June 2019 (i.e. part way through FY20) so revenue growth from FY19 to FY20 is mainly due to Greenbrook being included for 3/4 of the year, and revenue growth from FY20 to FY21 is due in part to Greenbrook being included for all the year. This growth was funded by the placing in FY19 and new equity issued as part of the Greenbrook consideration.

Totally then used cash on the balance sheet to fund most of the acquisition cost of Pioneer in FY22 (£6.4m cash in March 2022, £4.9m deferred cash in December 2022). They also issued equity for both the initial payment and the deferred payment, in addition to the cash. The inclusion of Pioneer for the full year accounted for a material part of the revenue growth from FY22 to FY23. The cash to pay for Pioneer was available at least in part because of the negative working capital brought on to the balance sheet by the acquisition of Greenbrook and the Covid-related contracts.

So a lot of the growth has been funded by placings/subscriptions, other equity issue (paying part of acquisition consideration in equity) and cash on the balance sheet coming from the negative working capital contracts in urgent care.

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 16:11

bmcollins,

I haven't seen any bear points which prove that TLY is not very cheap at £10m.

The fact is around 40% of institutions hold and some were increasing recently.

New Chair, Simon Stilwell, is co-founder of Liberum and director of Gresham, so I'm expecting further interest from institution and other investors.


Nothing 1gw and his mates said pre-H1 have come true.

If bull points can be countered then it makes the bear case stronger.
If bear points can be countered then it makes the bull case stronger.

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 16:05

1gw,

The placing you mention was in 2019. My post shows the revenues/cash/ebitda SINCE 2019.

Nothing wrong with my post.


"Covid itself was a windfall in the sense that Totally took on additional "negative working capital" contracts on Covid-related work"

They are a healthcare company. They are aligned to the NHS and so adapt to healthcare needs. That's exactly what TLY do, adapt.

Did you expect TLY to sit by and watch... like Byot did!!!

They provided covid assistance at airports etc.


Look at the current crisis, there was a need for resilience for NHS 111. TLY adapted and tendered for the contract and won.
They now expect more work from the same contract. It may or may not be there when it finishes but there will always be work.


Everyone needs healthcare, even you and your mates...regardless of whether it's hospital, A&E, urgent care, planned care, physio, ambulances.


Whatever emergency arises and there will always be emergencies, sensible forward looking companies will adapt. TLY have proven with their diversified business model, they are well positioned to adapt.

[bmcollins] 03/1/2024 15:54

Is this a serious bulletin board or just a highly repetitive echo chamber ?

[1gw] 03/1/2024 15:51

Talk about disingenuous!

Totally grew through acquisition didn't it? It raised over £40m from the issue of equity (see post pasted below for details). It used that money to acquire many companies. Didn't it then generally take money out of those companies i.e. effectively using cash on the balance sheet of some of the acquired companies to partly fund the acquisitions?

Covid itself was a windfall in the sense that Totally took on additional "negative working capital" contracts on Covid-related work which boosted the cash on the balance sheet. It used some of that cash to fund the contingent payment due on Pioneer. The wheels fell off, to some extent, when Covid ended and the additional contracts with it, meaning the negative working capital unwound reducing the cash on the balance sheet. This was exacerbated by the loss of the North West London UTC contracts which were also "negative working capital."


----------------------------
1gw - 02 Mar 2023 - 16:34:22 - 19668 of 20933 Totally Health - 2014 onwards - TLY
savaged - from a quick look at RNS's I think I can see:

2015: £1.0m (subscription at 17.5p, 6m shares) when Bob Holt came on board
2016: £6.2m (subscription at 62p, 10m shares) to fund early acquisitions
2017: £17.6m (placing/open offer at 55p, 30.6m shares) to fund Vocare acq.
2019: £9.7m (placing/open offer at 10p, 97.4m shares) to fund Greenbrook acq.

So that accounts for around £35m raised at a weighted average of around 23.5p. Don't know if I have them all.

In addition, the company issued shares directly to Vocare and Greenbrook sellers as part of the acquisition considerations:

2017: £3.5m (7.3m shares at 47.9p) Vocare consideration
2019: £2.5m (25m shares at 10p) Greenbrook consideration

So over £40m in total if you include the consideration shares. Again, don't know if I have them all. This was a quick look, so could be some errors and omissions.

Edit: and it looks like there was another £2.7m of new shares issued in Pioneer consideration (initial + deferred + additional).

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 15:32

Willow6501

"£2.7m isn't going to last long."

They have monthly income coming in from NHS. They not reliant on some overseas companies or dodgy local suppliers.


They had only £7.5m 4 years ago and they still managed to grow during covid, even though some of their services were closed.

2019 £78m, £7.5m, £1.1m
2020 £105m, £8.9m, £4m
2021 £113M, £14.8m, £5m
2022 £127.4m, £15.3m, £6.2m
2023 £135.7m, £6.5m, £6.9m
H12024 £55.8m, £1.7m, £0.6m


They also have a revolving credit facility.

I'm not saying they won't ever need to raise money, never say never..just that there's no indication of such from H1.

I invest/trade in different investments and assets classes. TLY is just 1 of my investments.
I base my opinions/research on facts/company newsflow. Look at Trmr, Byot, PSN/TW and Nano.

[willow6501] 03/1/2024 15:17

Sikh,

2.7M isn’t going to last long

Agree, we all need healthcare and always will…..doesn&#8217;t mean TLY will make a success of it.

As it stands, this company doesn’t fit my investment criteria but clearly fits yours. Maybe you will prove me wrong, good luck either way.

PS: I don’t short stocks

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 15:06

Willow6501,

That's in the past. Have a read of the outlook and listen to the presentation.

With £100m++ revenues, they need to increase margins very slightly for an increase in profits.
Elective Care and Company Wellness have significantly higher margins than Urgent Care and crucially, margins are increasing.


£2.7m cash in bank as of end of Oct, new contracts signed. Current contracts increased in value from £10m to £20m.


Operating in a hot sector with GE this year.

Everyone needs healthcare.


£10m mcap.


Feel free to short at 5p, if you think there's cashburn.

[willow6501] 03/1/2024 15:05

Down vote already, guess Sikh is about to post his come back post

[willow6501] 03/1/2024 15:04

netcurtains

Agree recovery plays are worth a few quid but depends on the company.

Cash burn is too high to make this a recovery play in my books.

[netcurtains] 03/1/2024 14:59

Recovery plays are always worth a few quid. The upside can be massive and provided you just play with a few quid the odds of winning are on the punters side (providing the spread not too wide)