Zenith Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mick113] 15/2/2017 21:41

Sja123 fully agree with your posts above.

Confirmed breakout! Exciting times ahead!!

[ravin146] 15/2/2017 21:15

Great comment this evening. The main story here is workovers will increase production. They will choose the best wells first. Market cap has yet to value the potential.Do the research and maths. Gd luck before the traders turn up and boost the share price Dyor

[sja123] 15/2/2017 20:44

This is a very oily area with production going back more than 150 years. In 1902, it was responsible for half of the then, by modern standards, small amount of oil produced in the entire world. During the Soviet era, it was producing 9000+ bpd. It's decline has been a result of a) collapse of Soviet union, b) resurgence in oil production concentrated offshore Caspian sea c) general neglect of interest and maintenance.

I think zen know very well what is possible here which explains the full market listing, director taking payment in shares and ramp up of the speed of workovers evident with only a month on lse....CEO talks always of managing expectations and over delivering targets...all the best managed companies do exactly that and please the market with each announcement...It's what I'm expecting here!...

All imo dyor etc...

[hearts1] 15/2/2017 20:24

If all goes well I think they have 5000bopd. First few wells will be telling.

[richie666] 15/2/2017 20:23

42p per our note - alignresearch.co.uk

[divmad] 15/2/2017 19:34

What could the valuation be here if Zen looks like reaching 2k bopd?

[flashheart] 15/2/2017 19:14

sja, absolutely. The main man isn't just taking shares in lieu of salary just for fun.

[thelung] 15/2/2017 19:01

Well said hearts1

[sja123] 15/2/2017 18:34

In my opinion, the company knows by selecting the best wells and correct modern techniques, they can easily exceed expectations! CEO says as much in his interviews...

Originally targeting 1000 bpd with one rig by qtr 1 2018....2 rigs are now going to be used, so you can bring that forecast forward six months, talk of the possibility of a third rig also....if the 1000 barrels original steer was an under promise, 2000 bpd could come here by the end of summer....not certain of course but if we do exceed expectations and have three rigs, much could be achieved quicker than you think!

All imo etc

[mick113] 15/2/2017 17:25

Very nice finish, tight spread before close, they must be running low on stock especially if volume is good tomorrow!

This is a breakout now, could really motor north quickly on buying.
Herd is still to arrive, still under the radar! Most have not noticed this could be a oil monster in the coming weeks/months!

Remember broker targets 31p/42p! Dyor

[hearts1] 15/2/2017 17:20

As long as PIs manage expectations , these work overs aren't going to give spectacular results, however over a two year period will significantly increase production.The key here is the market cap. That's why the upside can be huge if production hits 2k bopd.

[cashandcard] 15/2/2017 16:42

I bought in earlier today, a small position and plan on topping up when I can.
I think, on balance, the opportunity is rare and aslong as they tailor solutions to individual wells, it should be steady growth now the field rehabilitation has begun. The W/O's are enough to send this to double current valuation should they meet targets. It'll take just one or two very good wells to cover a lot of this years production target, so perhaps even a chance of exceeding the 12month target.


Cash

[dipla] 15/2/2017 16:34

Looks like the chartists would indicate this as a breakout.

Lets see how tomorrow plays.

imvho

[moormoney] 15/2/2017 15:54

A few more for me today. Knocking on the ceiling 😄 Can we smash through before the close??? IMO we can.

[mick113] 15/2/2017 14:47

I loaded up today only another £7.5k roughly, still looking to drop in the same amount again today or tomorrow. Chart is primed now for sharp rise, so i will be a buyer still and will hold tight.

Nice photo today again!! Looks like they are making swift progress!

[cpap man] 15/2/2017 14:05

Remember that you can never buy enough shares but there is always a limit to how many you can sell!!!!

[barnetpeter] 15/2/2017 14:02

ravin....I wrote elsewhere


barnetpeter15 Feb '17 - 10:20 - 564202 of 564214

Cpap man....I have 12 grand cash in Zen. I have also traded it three times to reduce my average price. Always a buyer at 9.5. Not sure I will get that price again. A serious investment for me.


Lets see if the US seller smacks the price today.

[sja123] 15/2/2017 13:20

Plus....1000 bpd by qtr 1 2018 was with only one workover rig....but now...

ZENGAS - 09 Feb 2017 - 07:17:28 - 324 of 403 Zenith Energy....oil & gas in Azerbaijan, Italy and Argentina - ZEN

Great news.

With a 1,000 bopd target for early next year from Azerbaijan, using 2 rigs should effectively bring that 1,000 bopd target forward by 6 months to Aug/Sept.

In addition they are considering leasing a 3rd workover rig, so operations should really gather pace.

[sja123] 15/2/2017 13:18

In my experience, always worth repeating ZENGAS research...

ZENGAS - 02 Feb 2017 - 12:12:59 - 299 of 402


Zenith Energy....oil & gas in Azerbaijan, Italy and Argentina - ZEN
At this £10m m/cap (10.125p) Zenith really has potential to surprise and it's already a producer which many at this m/cap can't lay claim to.

Some more from Beauforts note - read down to well 130 ie produced at 10,000 bopd and produced 650,000 bls in 1 year (before failing)so equivalent to almost 3600 bopd for 1 year or 1800 bopd average for 2 years.

"Azerbaijan production is currently circa 300 bopd and rising rather than declining due to simple maintenance and the high pressure, low decline, nature of the field (average decline rate is 4-5% per annum). The 300 bopd generates circa $150k of free cashflow to Zenith’s Azeri subsidiary.

Substantial 2P reserves and 145 drill locations
Zenith’s independent consultants calculate gross 2P reserves of 76 million barrels, of which 33 million are net to Zenith post the SOCAR profit share. 80% of these reserves are Probable Undeveloped from 145 drill locations.

1,000 bopd by early 2018
The investment case is based on multiple drilling and workover opportunities which should result in a much greater production uplift. Management is targeting 1,000 bopd before end 1Q18 from workovers, while we believe drilling has the potential to turn Zenith into a 3,000 bopd plus business within three years.

Exciting IP rates, slow decline
Well 211 drilled on the main Muradkhanli Field demonstrates the high initial production and low decline rates of the area. Drilled in 1981 it initially produced over 2,000 bopd and after 18 years in 1999 was producing over 1,400 bopd before production stopped quickly and dropped to sub 50 bopd, probably due to a well collapse. It still produces a few barrels today and is a potential recompletion or side-track opportunity.

1. Despite the main Muradkhanli field reservoir being fractured volcanic rocks, horizontal drilling has never been attempted

2. Having taken operation control in August last year, Zenith has succeeded in increasing production by 25bopd through simple maintenance

3. Three wells at Zardab produced over 500 bopd each but plugged with sand from the reservoir. This occurred in 1985 but no concerted effort has been made to recover these productive wells

4. No drilling has been undertaken for 15 years despite the substantial remaining reserves

2017 work programme –; started this week
Zenith’s 2017 work programme is designed to improve current operations through simple workovers and to determine the best technology for cleaning out one or more of the Zardab wells.

Not including the Zardab workovers, the CPR identifies 44 workover opportunities across the licence area. Management plans to complete 20 workovers over the next 24 months.

Last week (24th January) Zenith announced it had signed a workover contract and the workover rig is expected to start operations this week. M-195 and M-45 are the first workover wells.

2017 programme:
Muradkhanli up to 7 workovers including M-195 and M-45
Jafarli up to 2 workovers
Zardab 1 workover - more complex well clean-out work

Workovers and drill locations
In addition to reserve calculations, the Competent Persons Report identifies 44 workover opportunities on non producing wells and 33 prime drill locations on proved undeveloped reserves. It describes a further 112 probable undeveloped well locations.

Well 130 –; this is what could happen…

The CPR assumes average initial production of 120 barrels per day from vertical wells and 500 barrels from horizontals. This is reasonable given variability between wells, however we donâ€482;t feel it properly reflects the potential very high productivity of the Muradkhanli Contract Area reservoirs.

Well 130 drilled at Muradkhanli Field is a good example. Drilled in 1985 (15 years after first production), initial production was a modest c.100bopd, however within 24 hours production increased to 10,000 bopd as an uncontrollable gusher. Local farmers quickly built a sump and the well returned to normal production 25 days later. It then failed 1 year later having produced 650,000 barrels of oil.

The Zardab area –; high production workover opportunity
In the 1990’s 18 wells were drilled in the Zardab area - five were successful, one produced (and still produces) and two produced but plugged-up with sand within a week. Significantly, the two plugged wells produced over 500 bopd during their short lives. Bearing in mind the slow decline rates and overall productivity of successful wells in the area, these wells have the potential to be very significant for Zenith.

Under the lake and horizontal wells
In addition to multiple infill opportunities which are currently envisaged as vertical well locations, the CPR has identified 58 horizontal well locations. Many of these sit under a shallow lake which SOCAR didn’t attempt to drain. Zenith will drain the lake and, if it sticks to the CPR work programme, will drill 10 horizontal wells."

[sja123] 15/2/2017 13:11

Some PR from company on 9th March at Momentous Events...

[cpap man] 15/2/2017 13:10

BMD also has a 40p to 50p share price target on ZEN

Beaufort Securities have a share price target of [i think?] 31p

The so called paid for one actually has a share price target for ZEN of 42p

[i thought that it was a well reasoned research note]

Who really knows where ZEN will end up except that the likely hood is it will be a lot higher than where the ZEN share price sits today!

[divmad] 15/2/2017 13:05

Is a paid-for analyst's full value price target of 40p enough to get PIs interested, bearing in mind that SPs rarely get close to these dreamt up targets?

[stumbleupon] 15/2/2017 12:36

Define near term...

[sja123] 15/2/2017 12:15

Nicola Duke on Voxmarkets.....chart analysis....she sees 14p near term....

She has plenty of twitter followers....so no harm there...