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|Household Goods & Home Construction
Trafalgar New Share Discussion Threads
Showing 1026 to 1050 of 1050 messages
my analysis of the 2017/18 GDV is around £10m
thats from the following developments complete or will be by Q3, , so takes no account of anything in the pipeline for Q4. But given slippages lets say the below is what is built and sold in YE 31 March 2018.
- Burnside GDV £2.4m
- Edenbridge £1.065m
- Hildenborough £1.8m
- Speldhurst (say) £1m (luxury Ex Home)
- Sherness (say) £3.9m (6 x luxury Apartments)
Have I missed ANY developments??
Total say £10m
I know Developers are working on at least 25%-30% net margins including all finance costs but before Plc overheads (but lets take 25%)
that should equate to £2.5m
the YE 31.12.2016 accounts show Admin (GA) costs of £279,000 so lets say 2017/18 is £300000
that should give a net profit of £2.2m for YE 2018
2.2m/238m shares = .92p eps x a conservative 8 years forward earnings = 7.5p
(normal 10 x earnings for the sector gives of course 10p).
Property developers work on pipeline and TRAF are working to get 24 units through planning presently (per last RNS). If this comes through and we assume they will be 24 apartments (a mix of 1, 2 and 3 beds) with a av price of £400,000 = £9.6m. This will come through in the YE 2019 (possibly by H1 of YE 2019 which would be brilliant. And of course in between now and then TRAF will be working on more schemes, and land banking, which means a strengthening balance sheet from which TRAF can leverage borrowings to start more developments.
Erring on the side of caution I can see TRAF building a pipeline of GDV sales of
YE 2018 £10m-£12m
YE 2019 £15m
YE 2020 £20m
at £20m the GP could be £5m (to £6m) and net profits coming through at £4.5m. This takes the eps to 15p (using the same basis as above).
2015 and 2016 have thrown TRAF off track with planning issues etc, but this is a turnaround story with big potential. And CEO owns 75% which means he is very well aligned and incentivised to succeed. At 15p his holding is £28m. Says it all.|
|500K buy today and a few buys.|
|any further thoughts Barnet|
|Interesting update today. Delay in completion and selling some props but not too long. Just look at the amounts involved though...millions of income and new application for planning soon for the 24 house site. Buyers coming in at this low mkt cap|
big bear billy
|My two cents. c.£200K profit this year. £900K next ;)
1.3/1.6 bid/offer tomorrow and the usual MM games
By the interim results in 6 months it will be 3-4p which is undervalued imho
Why ambitous? TRAF has 4 developments on the go with pipeline and landbank, though the share price currently trades lower than when the company was only building a single site at Oakhurst Park.
Obviously TRAFs funders and suppliers consider the problems suffered on Oakhurst history as TRAF pushes profitably forward.
4p still a bargain for a pure south east based housebuilder|
|So results tomorrow what is everyone expecting?|
|Sends out a secure message for potentioal buyers imo
Interest rates could be cut AGAIN and get even closer to zero before the end of the year as taxpayer-backed banks wait to pass on the drop to 0.25%
|Markets liking the Carney move, lower rates for longer, just the job for builders and the housing sector. Good for another year+ imo. That gives a SOLID ground for recovery AND growth. SUPERB!
|Business as usual for Builders. All up today on strong demand.
3-5p target here.|
|Looks like good news imo.
Top info knows nothing here .. trust me!|
|topinfo pump Friday afternoon caused the buying.|
chart looks good, all lined up for a sustained rise imo
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
Last time i contacted Chris at TRAF they sounded very confident.|
|Blimey, i started a post tipping this on the STY board
""kMann 15 Jul'16 - 13:07 - 4697 of 4697 0 0 edit
Ok here it is guys, Been looking for another forgotten, unloved, undervalued stock. TRAF. Low cap (£2.5MIL) house builder, had its fair share of bad luck (sound familiar), but been turning it around.
Forecasting profit and growth (has a full schedule of developments underway, and more planned). Results could be as early as next week.
Offers good risk/reward. Mid/Longterm I'm looking for +3p. The new government look like they could be house builder friendly in various ways (expect a rate cut soon imo). 1p to BUY.
... oh, and look at that chart, REAL breakout stuff potential!!!
combebank are the subsiduary trading name of the trafalgar .
ps still holding Styles&Wood!""
around 12:45, then by the time id actualy posted it, it had already gone up 20%.
So looks like plenty are buying in for another multibagger.
Also hinted at this weeks ago htTp://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=22194997&from=4509#firstpost
Should have a good rise imo|
I guess that news has leaked here. Progress on this 6 house project going well....
Nearly all buys it seems....|
|Sudden spike in share price from midday, and now hit a 3 month trading volume high in less than 2 hours.
Wonder if results & an update imminent?|
|results out later this month|
|Lots of new build here ...could be a great year. Look at the mkt cap.
Construction underway. Ready for occupation end 2016.
Construction is expected to commence Spring 2016 with availability for occupation December 2016 / January 2017.
Build commencing June 2016|
|Bit of interest on Friday....lots of sales of property recently. Wonder if news coming?|
|Posted on lse by Amina52 application refused
|Further to fall imho|
|Crazy to buy this over 0.75!!!|
|mms probably walking this down to 0.75 / 0.95|
|Over-priced after recent rise|