Tr Property Investment Share Discussion Threads

[umitw] 04/3/2008 12:51

Paul this is for you.
UW

[chairman2] 22/2/2008 11:19

Anyone know if TRY will make a pre-close statement next month?

Incorporating the Jan Feb 08 market price impacts
might produce some interesting information for sector
watchers.

[jonwig] 13/2/2008 07:26

I missed that, Ch.
The index might have something to do with it.

Alliance Trust [ATST] will join the FTSE100, but they said it was no big deal, as they will no doubt be pushed out when markets recover.

[chairman2] 05/2/2008 14:40

See that Pru has sold out including its tracker funds

any ideas? or is it simply that TRY has dropped out of the FTSE 350??

[chairman2] 30/12/2007 14:59

European property remains the area to watch
-Eastern Europe - for the really brave

[jonwig] 29/12/2007 11:35

Thanks for that, Cerrito.
Yes, it summarises the problem here, but I'd prefer to accentuate the positive!

• Interest rates in the UK are expected to fall substantially next year,

• A shrinking public sector might rescue us from tax hikes,

• Escaping forced asset sales should support prices. (So far, I think, we've avoided them.)

Higher-geared and secondary asset companies are still at risk. The largest (FTSE100) should be OK. And TRY is one way to get into the sector without single-company risk!

[chairman2] 12/12/2007 18:08

180p - support or resistance??

[chairman2] 26/11/2007 12:17

article in the Telegraph Money section
did not mention TRY but was relatively downbeat (journalists over
influenced by M&G)

[jonwig] 25/11/2007 15:59

Hi, MW.
I can't help you, but the liquidators can be contacted at KPMG. This announcement gives details:

[mw8156] 25/11/2007 15:01

was a holder of trust of property shares investment trust and am still waiting for the remaining money following its winding up; it appears there has been some problem over its investment trust status; can anyone enlighten me if there has been any recent development?

[jonwig] 22/11/2007 19:39

from the Interims:

"The average discount over the period [31/03 to 30/09] was 12.2% for the Ordinary shares and 11.5% for the Sigma share class. These figures compare with an average discount of 9.9% in the period from September 2006 to March 2007."

... which bears out what we know in general, but the cycle isn't a steep one.

[chairman2] 22/11/2007 19:07

yes I amaware of a lot of general Investment trust research
which shows that there is a discount cycle overlay on the share market cycle
which tends to exaggerate the movements in both directions.

Some classes of investment trusts the widenning discount is the leading indicayor of changes in direction. Anything above a 20% discount is usually
a mindless buy

[jonwig] 22/11/2007 07:32

Can't help you there, Ch2.
It's a general rule with ITs that the discount widens when the underlying assets fall ... as now.

[chairman2] 21/11/2007 14:30

any view of what the past cycle of discount has been

[jonwig] 21/11/2007 08:15

TRY H1.
Outlook statements:

Market Outlook

The Trust now has minimal on balance sheet gearing and the portfolios'
see-through gearing has been sharply reduced to below that of the benchmark. Our
equity portfolio is dominated by holdings in large liquid stocks with an
emphasis on those with below average gearing, fixed rate long term debt and high
quality tenants and leases. We have no derivative positions or exposure to debt
instruments and our direct property portfolio is virtually fully leased.

The turmoil in credit markets has created a heightened level of uncertainty for
all asset pricing. If the turmoil develops into a full blown credit squeeze it
may yet threaten world economic activity. In these uneasy circumstances the
managers are concentrating on risk avoidance and on holding assets with secure
cash flows and dividend profiles and husbanding resources against the future
prospects of recovery and growth.

My view is that the problem is about financial companies expecting Central banks
to bale them out when their lack of confidence in each other causes illiquidity
in each other's credit positions. Meanwhile the operational world carries on
quite well - including property, retail and manufacturing. Chris Turner
addresses this issue of market fundamentals at the end of his statement.

and

The question is what happens next? Inactivity in the market is confusing the
pundits, but we are missing two normal of the normal ingredients for a full
blown property bear market - sky high interest rates and over development.
Consensus forecasts and IPD Index derivative pricing suggest a 10% to 12% value
decline in the next twelve months. UK property share pricing is generally
discounting all this and more and points to portfolio value declines of closer
to 20% over the next twelve months. Much will eventually demand on the state of
tenant demand in 2008, which in turn will depend on the state of the economy and
housing markets.

urrently the market is in that mood where almost all news is bad news. If a
company produces a better than expected valuation result then it must have dozy
valuers. Property share prices are Share prices declined steadily over the
period with the benchmark index falling in five of the six monthly periods.
There were very few earnings shocks, in fact results in the period were
generally at or above expectations. The persistent driver of price declines was
the fear of future property value declines. REIT status was no defense. Large
scale redemptions in open ended property securities funds made them forced
sellers and the declines became almost self feeding. Shorting was also well in
evidence. A few companies made share buybacks into Treasury but these were
generally desultory and of no real consequence. Some smaller stocks, notably
many of those issued on AIM over 2005 and 2006, have virtually ceased to be
marketable. The Trust's exposure to these stocks is mercifully very light
(around 1% of the gross assets). We are watching this area however in the hope
of finding some major bargains if sellers decide that they are prepared to take
any price to offload the shares. In the larger stocks liquidity has been
generally good.
Currently the market is in that mood where almost all news is bad news. If a
company produces a better than expected valuation result then it must have dozy
valuers. Property share prices are clearly discounting substantial NAV declines
over the coming months, but that is no guarantee that the stocks will not react
downwards again when the NAV declines are announced. Meanwhile we welcome the
decision by the board of our largest investment, Land Securities, to explore a
three-way split of the business and we think that this move will enhance the
company's long term returns.

[jonwig] 17/11/2007 10:30

Agreed, Cerrito ... and chasing the shares in the sector with the biggest discount to NAV (eg. Capital & Counties) might not be the best move, though tempting!

[cerrito] 17/11/2007 09:35

Jonwig
Thanks for setting this up
was in some years back and sold at 80p because I thought it was toppish and went back in too early 2 months ago at 204 for a smallish amount.
I rate Turner very highly; as I do not have the time to follow individual stories all that closely this make sense for me and no doubt I will be buying more in a few months time .

[jonwig] 17/11/2007 08:19

Whilst I wouldn't invest in Russia, Eastern Europe has its attractions, and I've bought a few shares in Dawnay Day Carpathian [DDC], where rising Euro should help. Also no sub-prime worries as far as I can see.

Peter Salisbury? Can't help there, though one of that name heads Maquarie Bank of Australia.

I've added a chart for TRYS to the header.

[chairman2] 16/11/2007 19:59

ah thanks

I'll look at TRYS as well

about a month ago smaller European prop cos
(especially Russia) were being touted as next
good thing

personally I smelt a ramp but what do I know

where do I know Peter Salisbury from I'm trying to remember??

[jonwig] 16/11/2007 18:48

hello Ch2.

the Sigma shares are a separate pool with investment in smaller cap property companies. When they were created, existing ord holders could convert part of their holding. It's explained here (from June 2007):



Their code is TRYS.

[chairman2] 16/11/2007 13:51

Hi Jon

following your comments on the Land Board
have added this to my watch list
and plan to do some research

Obviously spoted the split into ord and Sigma shares this summer

are the two shares still bundled together - ie does a purchase
of TRY get you ORD + Sigma?

[jonwig] 05/11/2007 12:32

Haven't looked yet in detail, but the sector is beginning to have attractions, and this may be a relatively 'safe' way in.
Note also almost daily share buybacks. These seem to be 25k-250k, and/or new Sigma shares at similar rates.

[jonwig] 05/11/2007 12:31

hxxp://www.trproperty.com/home




With commercial real estate stocks priced up to 40% discount to NAV, and TRY on a 16% discount (Nov 2007) to its portfolio (largely in liquid UK and European companies), this should be an attractive way of buying into the sector with a spread of assets ahead of a bounce.


TRY: NAV = 130p (20 Nov 2008) Disc = 23%
TRYS: 59p, 34%


Portfolio top holdings, 30 June 2008
TRY:
Unibail-Rodamco .... 14.13%
Land Securities .... 12.19
British Land ........ 5.58
Segro ............... 3.50
Big Yellow .......... 3.23
Hammerson ........... 3.11
Fonciere des Regions. 2.98
Klepierre ........... 2.60
Liberty Intl ........ 2.33
Castellum ........... 2.32

TRYS:
Unibail-Rodamco ..... 9.51
Land Securities ..... 9.04
British Land ........ 4.69
Great Portland Ests . 4.50
Hansteen Holdings ... 4.48
Big Yellow .......... 4.29
Kardan .............. 3.80
Castellum ........... 3.66
Fonciere des Murs ... 3.16
Soc Fonc Paris ...... 2.72

[bluetooth] 10/7/2007 17:52

Hi Brad

I have decided to subscribe for the basic 20% offer. I have held these for several years and have done pretty well. The warrants were even better, pity that they have expired.

Good luck.

BT