Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[defcon3] 26/1/2017 15:47

I think a placing is in the way Dan. It is needed. The board need to get it out of the way and remove the uncertainty

[dandadandan] 26/1/2017 14:36

I was reminded again last week- 'Trade with the trend, the trend is your friend'.

Many have seen some nice gains just wiped out as this is Dumped.
No one deserves that, IMO.

Some are now predicting the 4s.

Those podcasts just re-tell the known story.

The BoD need to get in a studio and organise a Q & A small investors webinar, IMO.
If you do not keep everyone up to date - who cares about your company......

Who suggested a JV partner. How about some PR activity, also.

It appears that TLOU are currently in the driving seat, waiting to drive over some rocky share price roads.

GLA

[2lb] 26/1/2017 12:08

Well, whatever they are doing they need to bloody well get on with it rather then just leave us to this death by s thousand 5% drops whilst spouting more and more hot air on podcasts.......

[dandadandan] 26/1/2017 11:45

Is another 5p placing on the way?

Looks like the shorters think so,


GLA.

[btfd] 25/1/2017 10:22

Yup, plenty ways to raise capital .. but they should do it sooner than later, market is waiting to see imo..

[wheniamfree] 24/1/2017 16:51

I have a feeling the cash requirements will be taken care of by a JV partnership. Any cash raised should likely have an application for additional overheads whilst the work is completed.

[btfd] 23/1/2017 22:51

The Optiva securities report today says TLOU will likely be looking at a placement or special investment vehicle (which the FD alluded to on podcasts) by mid 17.. I guess the recent weakness has been the market anticipating that fact. Maybe a good bounce when funding is out of the way, and picture clearer. Here's hoping!

[wheniamfree] 23/1/2017 16:28

I didn't realise the previous post had gone through, apologies for rehashing the same.

[wheniamfree] 23/1/2017 16:27

I'm not sure how the price action is down to the company? They have delivered on each and every milestone.

Patience is the issue here. It's clear from the previous posts what the issue is and so is therefore down to holders. This is an investment case and a strong one at that, people who have the attention span of a few weeks are certainly cutting their noses off here to no doubt chase rubbish elsewhere.

There has been no bad news, infact the business and investment decision has got stronger. So what has changed since initially investing other than some individuals absorbing the sheep mentality?

[wheniamfree] 23/1/2017 16:22

I am not entirely sure how the price is tr Boards fault? Credit where credit is due they have delivered on everyone of their milestones and should be commended.

The work on the ground is ongoing and an FDP is due shortly with perhaps the potential of a reserves upgrade.

The price is falling due to the lack of patience by investors who don't know a good thing when they see one, the last few posts here allude to as much.

Those wishing to sell due to lack of patience is precisely why people lose money on AIM. Is there any negative news to date? Not that I can see so the picture has changed how exactly?

[pottermagic2310] 23/1/2017 15:20

4.25p by the end of May if this continues as-is, awaiting real News related to the Bid response due by July.

[ginko3] 23/1/2017 14:33

Tempted to average down here but the management have done nothing to assure me that they have anything material to announce in the near future and I think the share price could yet test the 5.8p level.

[2lb] 23/1/2017 09:33

Nice one TLOU management - you finally got us back below the listing price.....

Miserable performance given the supposed potential.

Whilst it is tempting to add at these levels, the company has done nothing to warrant further support from existing holders and nothing to attract new holders so the only real choice is hold or sell....still hold for now but next update now critical.

[2lb] 20/1/2017 15:29

Pretty relentless 4 month slide now.

1) TLOU need to BAN any more podcasts - all they do is accelerate a sell off every single time. The FD was poor but CEO no better on the last one with his "sell up and buy in June" message.

2) GE 3 month extension is due up very soon so let's have a RNS update on what's going on there.

3) Interims due in about 6 weeks. If we can SOMEHOW stay above 6p in the meantime then that's an opportunity for a full general update.

4) Commit this firmly to long term bucket and hope for a return in a year or so.

[wheniamfree] 20/1/2017 15:11

Aka an NDA

[wheniamfree] 20/1/2017 15:09

sdavis of course they would but they can sign a document of confidentiality.

It isn't that nobody knows except the BoD but it is not knowledge for the public domain and I as such understand this.

[sdavis] 20/1/2017 14:27

Just take a second and think!Any institutional investment would be preceeded by due diligence. They would have to disclose known flow rates!!

[zengas] 20/1/2017 13:08

Effiert just use the filter button simple. You're obviously worried when you have to use that tone.

[zengas] 20/1/2017 12:58

Sorry wheniamfree, but I do not agree.

My thoughts are in line with what the analysts had covered about matching the flow rates (circa 32.5 boe/day) that they had used in the modelling. The analyst has stated that lesser flow rates may well be commercial but could result in being financially challenging for the project.

After such a long period they have not indicated what the flow rates are and while they may be commercial, they may not be sufficiently high enough to even match the analysts model and as such are hopefully waiting to see if they improve and is my thinking on why they are silent about these. No one despite all the times they have been wheeled out in podcasts have asked if flow rates have exceeded or are short of that model whether they give a specific flow rate number or not.

What's the point of doing multiple podcasts hoping to bolster investment when new funding is on the horizon if you can't give reliable guidance. My concern is that the flow rates could be still too low and they are reluctant to divulge them at a time when more funding is needed and they want those funds at the best possible price. If flow rates were known to be mediocre that imo would damage investor sentiment. I say that in tandem to the fact that they were only able to book 450,000 boe much short of the analysts circa 3.3 mmboe reserves expectation - so if the flow rates are poor that could be why there is such a big difference in reserves booked in comparison to analysts guidance and perhaps also why they had to push the co-operation agreement out to the end of February from last November.

[wheniamfree] 20/1/2017 12:35

pottermagic,

"How do you know GE and IKH are working hard ?"

It's been announced via podcast multiple times and is the reason why the contracts are kept short to only 3 months, if they weren't playing ball one could assume tlou would move to a another interested party also announced on the podcast. Unless of course they are lying?

"I see this as being in its infancy until TLOU can demonstrate to the Gov that any plan they produce is actually viable"

Hence why the FDP is being finalised prior to submission for the government to review. If the plan isn't economical or viable I doubt tlou would run with it if it's only going to cost them money with no financial gain.

[wheniamfree] 20/1/2017 12:20

Zengas, of course it does make sense.

Let us assume tlou announce flow rates to investors via an RNS and flow rates are stable at X one could calculate this number results in only a specific number of wells for 10MW. That information is now in the public domain not only for a competitor to undercut the price but also for the government to see. By releasing this information via an RNS it is public.

Now for capex, drilling costs $Y per well and a total of $Z for infrastructure/overheads.

If tlou submit their tender to government to supply 10MW at $15 per unit it would be very simple for the government to breakdown costings and profitablity by carrying out very simple maths.

If the flow rates are X and they can assume only 5 wells are needed as opposed to 20 then this affects the overall cost and profitability of the entire project.

(5x $Y)+ $Z
or
(20x $Y) + $Z

By your own admission you already understand this fact.

If the government realise only 5 wells are needed and tlou are tendering a cost at the equivalent of 20 wells to make 10% profit that gives you a huge basis to negotiate the price down. Keep it quiet and you control the play. Make it fair and the government get a good deal whilst tlou gets a great one. I shouldn't really have to explain this concept on here, surely?

[pottermagic2310] 20/1/2017 10:49

WimFree - everything you've said above comes across as though it's all entirely factual (which it definitely isn't), as though you have some sort of inside knowledge (which you probably don't) and is, despite your turn of phrase, actually just your own personal opinion.
I find it deliberately over-optimistic & somewhat mis-leading.
I doubt any other Posters here are being hostile towards you or anybody else, more likely presenting their own opinions, based on their own research.
How do you know the other Party has done no ground work - who are they ?
How do you know GE and IKH are working hard ?
It is a mistake to assume all of this, e.g. TLOU's vision & proposal will amount to everything/anything... it may not, particularly if the Gas isn't there, the Flow Rates aren't there, or it's not economically viable to get it out.
It's incorrect to state the Project can only be based on past performance of a few of the People/Leaders involved with entirely different Projects that took place elsewhere... it could be correct to assess this Project on everything that is known about it currently... which is not a lot.
I would also question how nothing more than a Vision, no Partners, only 1% of required Reserves confirmed and no Flow Rates constitutes being at an "advanced stage"... I see this as being in its infancy until TLOU can demonstrate to the Gov that any Plan they produce is actually viable... I could knock up some fancy Images & Presentation material in a couple of days and say "Look, a Project worth £xxx million, in theory, based on several un-validated assumptions".

I totally agree there is massive potential for Reward, all of which is (IMO) based on equally massive Risks. I certainly see an opportunity on the horizon to take a punt at well below 4.5p/share between now and July, which may reap 'dividends' in the event that TLOU provide a robust & feasible response to the Gov in the Summer.

Good Luck to one & all

[zengas] 20/1/2017 08:31

Thanks wheniamfree

Re the flow rates and not making commercial sense to submit these to tender.
I have never suggested flow rates be submitted to tender - what i have said is that investors need to know. There is no reason to keep them quiet.

The important point is - It only takes one specific amount of gas to supply a 10 MW contract. The flowrates have no bearing on this. For the example 10MW you supply one specific amount of boe.

Whether it comes from 5 wells or 20 wells is the question for investors not the government. The government will only need to know can they feasibly and reliably supply gas to fulfil any contract.

The company has already publically said it expects $10m - $15m in revenues from that 10 MW and again in the modelling used by the analysts - so therefore we know what the boe (mcf) price range is that they hope to get ie $60 - $90/boe.

To suggest keeping flow rates secret as some sort of commercial advantage doesn't make any kind of sense.