Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[2lb] 13/1/2017 15:54

Very disappointing week.

Now 50% off from the highs with little tangible progress having been reported other than "we have been asked to submit a tender in July"

Still feel this will deliver big returns in time but have had to totally reassess the likely timescales.

Message in podcast may week have just said to sell now and buy back in 5 months.

Perhaps they have a surprise or two to drop between now and then. The GE deal will need a further update as the three month extension closes in.

[money4me] 13/1/2017 14:29

i think it is helpful if it flows out of the groung quite quickly

[snickerdog] 13/1/2017 12:05

Tlou have a great deal of the work done and it is IK Holdings who have also been handling the numbers specific to the contract / offtake agreement like potential pricing etc.GE have been working hard on power plant planning to fold this into the Feasibility Study.Flow rates were unnecessary to report because it is the reserves booked which is important. The flow rates just dictate the speed at which the gas is released and there is enough there to power more than 100 ME for decades.

[snickerdog] 13/1/2017 12:01

I just spoke to the CFO, the government have a generous timetable on this. Tlou are well underway with the work. It was Tlou who dictated the terms of the contract and keeping short periods in order to keep the other parties motivated and honest - it they don't perform then this means that nothing to prevent Tlou from doing a deal with another party such as Seimens or Mitsubishi or even a Chinese EPCM Energy Procurement Construction Manufacturer

[pottermagic2310] 13/1/2017 09:17

Thought I'd check in on this as it's been a while.
Looks to me as though TLOU completely failed to secure interest from GE et al to the planned timescales (Q4 2016) and that doesn't surprise me as;

a) there is no respectable Flow Rate data [this is infact precisely what TLOU previously reported - nothing substantial or of value] and...

b) the actual Reserves via the re-drilled Wells were really quite negligible at that time - something like only 1% of what's really needed, with very similar, highly optimistic (almost wishful thinking) Forecasts reiterated - old news originally published by 2 other Parties churned out again to embellish the reality.

It then looks like the Gov are attempting to expedite matters by formally announcing an invitation to Tender... what this means, based on my own insight into such matters, is that TLOU are now constrained to an absolute deadline to respond very formally with viable Plans that cover all perspectives... along with other Bidders. This means (to me) that TLOU have to put appropriate 3rd Party support in place, have to prove Reserves & Flow Rates and that the whole Vision is financially viable... no more talk of the Vision, no more withholding key Data, no more failure to secure GE & others for the Master Plan.

Will they, won't they make the finish line for firm Plans now imposed by the Gov?

[houxty] 13/1/2017 08:59

@Zengas

"The interviewer seems to have had the company on a number of times now so you'd think by now the burning question to ask would be the commercial flow rate threshold or even asking what they were hoping for at this stage - given this is January 2017."

In previous podcasts, the interviewer has always mentioned that he owns shares in TLOU and I rather suspect he may have deliberately steered clear of questions about flow rates. As you rightly say, they would be the burning questions and the usual hot air -Oh the irony! how we'd love to hear about flows of hot air! - from the management would only serve shareholders badly.

On the other hand, positive news on flows would be highly price sensitive and couldn't be announced on the podcast so perhaps the issue was best left on the sidelines.

A case of damned if you do, damned if you don't perhaps.

[houxty] 13/1/2017 08:54

@Zengas

"The interviewer seems to have had the company on a number of times now so you'd think by now the burning question to ask would be the commercial flow rate threshold or even asking what they were hoping for at this stage - given this is January 2017."

In previous podcasts, the interviewer has always mentioned that he owns shares in TLOU and I rather suspect he may have deliberately steered clear of questions about flow rates. As you rightly say, they would be the burning questions and the usual hot air -Oh the irony! how we'd love to hear about flows of hot air! - from the management would only serve shareholders badly.

On the other hand, positive news on flows would be highly price sensitive and couldn't be announced on the podcast so perhaps the issue was best left on the sidelines.

A case of damned if you do, damned if you don't perhaps.

[rogerbirds] 12/1/2017 12:00

Let us not forget the 1 December 2016 announcement of the planned conversion of field generation from diesel to gas to run the pumps and metering at the Selemo wells – leading to ongoing cost savings. In effect this will be ‘first gas monetisation’.

Off topic and on a very personal note, I want to take this opportunity to thank Zengas, who is a welcomed contributor to the debate here. Back in the day, your research and comments enabled me to earn a very tidy sum in less than 6-months from the rise in Matra Petroleum (MTA) and thereafter Petroneft Resources (PTR). Still regret not holding the latter for the full 7-fold increase during 09/10. D’oh!

RB

[dandadandan] 12/1/2017 11:50

Get ready for a placement and some dilution, IMO.

It is still a time to be patient on a great project.

GLA.

[andrewsr] 12/1/2017 10:47

£2m/pa cash burn doesn't seem like a lot considering what's at stake and they have invested their own cash setting this up (sorry, no reference, just from memory), so it shouldn't be a problem raising cash to bridge any gap to a deal to start the project for 10 or 50 MW.

[defcon3] 12/1/2017 10:03

Cheers, so likely to raise again soon.

[zengas] 12/1/2017 09:18

Cash was A$3.26m at end of Sept including placing at 5.5p on 30/8/16.

Their quarterly accounts estimate cash burn of A$850k (£520k) for the quarter to end of Dec 2016.

That leaves A$2.35m (A$1 =61p) = £1.43m at end of December and on a similar burn rate will be down to around £900k cash by end of this current quarter.

Figures here:-

[effiert] 12/1/2017 08:54

£3m cash. FFS does anyone do any research nowadays?

[defcon3] 12/1/2017 08:44

Great podcast, but how are these guys off for cash? Likely raise soon?

[andrewsr] 11/1/2017 22:31

From previous discussions, a 100 MW plant would require about 11.2 bn cf/year. If a well produces 0.5m cf/day, that would require about 62 wells. I think they'll probably do it in 10-20 MW phases/stages.

[zengas] 11/1/2017 18:28

Listened to the latest podcast to see if there was anything new.

The interviewer seems to have had the company on a number of times now so you'd think by now the burning question to ask would be the commercial flow rate threshold or even asking what they were hoping for at this stage - given this is January 2017.

They talked about what supplying 10-15-50-100MW could be worth.
He said 10-15MW would be worth $10m-$15m/year revenue - so from that and the prices he had quoted some time back at circa $7.50/$11 mcf that works out at producing around 600 boe/d @ $45-$66/boe - but there's no indication what the costs could be to get there due to the uncertainty of what commercial flow rates may be relative to the number of wells required and time to dewater/come on stream.

The commercial threshold rate is key as it will determine cost and the number of wells likely needed and is the current uncertainty imo regards to expenditure/profitability and why i think it's taken so long to announce any partner and extended the GE co-operation agreement to the end of next month.

I might have read it wrong when he was asked about this at 18 mins in, saying there were always others re agreements other than GE, but to me it didn't come across as overly confident . Again i think it's down to what constitutes commercial threshold rates to make it viable.

If a well produces at 100,000 or 1,000,000 cu-ft/day or somewhere in between that's 16 -166 boepd so a range of 3-4 to 30+ wells possibly needed for 10MW and ultimately how long will they take to de-water given they still haven't touched on a commercial rate yet after such a long time nor has the interviewer asked other than querying reserve potential. All the reserves in the world are not much good if there is only a small amount coming out of the ground.

If this was a 100MW operation to achieve the revenues of $100m - $150m it could mean somewhere between 34 - 300+ wells to get circa 6,000 boepd production.

[money4me] 11/1/2017 16:34

projected revenue for a plant yet to be built

[houxty] 11/1/2017 13:16

The usual hot air.

I think the market's reaction is a more realistic reaction to the podcast than the ramper's above.

[effiert] 11/1/2017 12:35

I like the fact #TLOU is getting approached by new companies to tie up an agreement ... GE better hurry up

[effiert] 11/1/2017 12:14

Vox Markets Podcast
‏@VoxPodcast
“100mw’s would generate around $100m- $150m in revenue a year”, Tony Gilby of #TLOU Energy on the podcast today>

and thats just from ONE deal. £18m cap.

Can see this multibagging in the next 6 months

[ftangftang] 11/1/2017 11:46

Tony Gilby
podcast



cheers
ft ft

[dandadandan] 11/1/2017 11:33

DDDD is still being patient.
As I previously said - Some mistakes of buying too early can be costly, but they are lessons learned from past experiences.

As they say ' Follow the trend the trend is your friend'.

This has suffered from the effect of too much early hype on a great project.

(Botswana where the risks/rewards factors are high).


It is still all in those (around) 6p AIM charts.
Have those 5p professional placement experts skimmed off their profits yet?
A Domino effect.

Be careful for the moment, follow the BoDs actions not just their words,IMO.

GLA.

[dr jekyll] 11/1/2017 11:13

I have learned that you have to be very patient in this game. Many of us have sold shares in the past out of boredom or thinking we can do better elsewhere and many is the time I have checked back to only find that the share I had sold so many months or even years ago has been doing really well. Usually, although obviously not always, it is best to sit tight and wait out the boring parts. Sooner or later some news appears and you are on an upward trajectory before you know it.

Hope that helps :)

[2lb] 10/1/2017 15:49

Pot Kettle Black