Skil Ports & Lg Share Discussion Threads

[fft] 03/11/2016 02:36

MT,

Where did you get the info that the berth depth was now to be only 4.5m as opposed to 6m originally ? It does seem a strange decision

Has the Monsoon season finally finished in Mumbai yet ?

The numbers, as MT mentioned, do seem suspect.

[pj 1] 02/11/2016 17:38

I'm putting some personal issues to one side for a moment as I feel it is only fair to post.In support of MT's conclusion above then the admittedly vague reports from Site that I have received in within the last month is that allegedly 24/7 operations are sporadic at best, busier in day than night. Some of my own interpretation has been used. Maybe that is to be expected? You will have to draw your own conclusions.

As always IMO only and DYOR (Please note my use of ''vague'')

With the targets given by Directors surely operations should be at full pelt?

No doubt azalea will help with any further funding required by the Company?

[saucepan] 02/11/2016 16:09

Thank you Mount Teide; much appreciated insights - very genuinely so. However, it just seems rather a shame (for whatever reason - I appreciate there will be a good one) that you felt unable to share your expertise and thoughts on the thread until now and since your last post here on 7 December 2015 when you were authoritatively bullish.

[saikat] 02/11/2016 15:58

Good post MT. Looks like looting and stealing on a massive scale is going on for years.

[marvelman] 02/11/2016 15:41

MT

There was no obligation on your part to have submitted that long and substantive post and the fact that you have is indeed to your credit. Any thoughts I had of re-investing here at this pitiful price have now well and truly been extinguished. Many thanks.

[mount teide] 02/11/2016 15:06

Declaration; disposed my holding in SPL earlier this year at a loss after losing all confidence in the company following a number of very long, and unsatisfactory telephone conversations with the MD, who imo is totally out of his depth. (The only telephone comment/forecast he did make that proved correct - was that once the Management has something at Karanja to show the market, it will give Management the opportunity, should they so wish to raise money from the facility, by either taking an industry partner or from new/existing investors).


The 'Chairmans Letter' in the Open Offer and Limited Placing taken together with previous project updates only reinforces my view that the management has lost all credibility and along with the NED's should be replaced immediately. Imo, the passage of time will prove this letter a work of fiction, as most of the development timeline forecasts are so totally unrealistic, as to be laughable considering the progress made to date.


Chairman's Letter:

'Subject to the Company being able to secure the Funding by the end of the first quarter of 2017, the Company is working to the following timetable in order to achieve full operational completion of the Facility by the end of the third quarter of 2017:

'By the end of January 2017 the Company expects to have:
• completed the dredging requirement;
• reclaimed 70 per cent. of the land; and
• constructed two berths, one of which will be capable of receiving vessels. '


So, in the next three months, Management expect to double the land reclaimed from around 75 acres(i estimate it is currently nearer 65 acres) to 150 acres ( A total impossibility imo), even if they worked night and day they would be lucky to get close to 100acres in total.

And after taking more than 6 months to pile 100m of quay, they expect to complete another 200m of quay piling in three months and have at least 150m of the quay wall and adjacent hardstanding complete for operations! Laughable.


'By the end of the first quarter of 2017 the Company expects to have:
• reclaimed 90 per cent. of the land;
• constructed four berths, three of which will be capable of receiving vessels; and
• entered into commercial agreements with end users.'

It gets even better: in the 5 months from now to the end of March 2017, they expect to have reclaimed a total of 180acres, nearly three times the progress to date and have completed 600m of piling and 450m of berth development. (So utterly ridiculous as to be be unworthy of further comment!)


And now for the grand finale!

'By the end of the second quarter of 2017 the Company expects to have:
• completed the balance of reclamation work;
• carried out further ground improvement works;
• constructed the remaining berths, four of which will be capable of receiving vessels; and
• completed the sourcing of all necessary equipment.'


They expect between now and next June to reclaim around another 140 acres, and complete a further 900m of piling and around 800m of quay development! (Total and utter nonsense - this is so ridiculous, that the management are putting themselves at risk of being taken away in straight jackets, if not handcuffs!).


At the end of last year it became apparent to me the executive management were either a bunch of totally incompetent idiots, or were operating a XXXXXXXXXXXXX.

If as management say they have enough money to get to the end of March without delaying the pace of development it begs the following question:

BY implication, they already have sufficient funds to develop at least 150 acres and 600m of berths without the need to raise any further funds. THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO EASILY MEET THE FIRST 3 to 4 YEARS OF OPERATIONAL USE - SO WHY THE NEED TO RAISE MORE FUNDS?


It gets worse..... the operation is now being developed to have just 4.5m of water depth available on the berths NOT the 6.0m previously mentioned. This is a HUGE NEW NEGATIVE as it will now restrict the operation to attracting JUST small barges and very small coasters of around 60-70m total length.

IMO - No Port Operator in their right mind would spend the best part of £150m to develop 200 acres( in reality it will not be anything like that on 'completion' next year) and 1000m of berths to handle such traffic. THIS IS WHY THERE HAS BEEN NO INTEREST FROM OTHER PORT OPERATORS - Ask yourself this question - why has no port operator been willing to pay around £30m for around 75% of the company - they could pay back the debt with the cash they currently have left and be left with the asset progress to date(clearly like me, they do not believe there is anywhere near £65m of asset value currently completed to date, and are not impressed with commercial prospects for a facility with such a massive operational draft restriction.

Management now claim they are going to target container traffic from vessels in the anchorage - BIG MISTAKE - the management should do some research( a detailed investigation by a London and Mumbai based firm of marine engineers has shown that it is simply not possible to safely use the Mumbai anchorage for this type of barge operation for some 3 to 4 months of the year due to adverse sea conditions during the Monsoon season.

Additionally, there has been no reported berthing delays affecting the movement of container vessels to the JNPT container terminals for most of the last 6 months following the introduction of the new terminal capacity there, and with further new terminal capacity scheduled to regularly come into operation at JNPT over the next 5 years this is unlikely to change. ALL of the problems creating delays for cargo shippers/receivers at the JNPT terminals are related to landslide terminal operations, administrative, and roadside access issues.

Shareholders should be DEMANDING to know where the money spent too date has gone and to whom.

If this funding proceeds - i believe shareholders will likely end up with a very modest facility by the end of next year comprising around 300m of heavily draft restricted berths capable of handling only tiny coasters and barges, and around 75 - 100 acres of hardstanding with modest load bearing capacity - at a 'cost' of close to £145m, but with a market value of probably around £45m at best(close to the bank debt outstanding on it), and with the prospect of developing a commercial operation that would be lucky to make a profit capable of even covering the interest payments on that debt , never mind make a return for shareholders!.


AIMHO/DYOR

[diku] 02/11/2016 09:33

Not kept up to speed with goings on but have the Institutional investors who are taking up the placing...surely they could have their man/woman on the board....to check all is well....

Saikat....they could always turn it into a fishermans port!...

[azalea] 02/11/2016 06:32

Only time will tell. who is right.

[saikat] 01/11/2016 18:51

It is a case of protection of your ownership rights - in the house story, you have this protection - here, you have no control over these rights. There are enough reasons to ask whether all that Gandhi wants is to become a national hero (after building the next private port in India which will happen) with free money from UK? No obligations! He will make a lot of money no matter what happens from here. But national heroes and equity health are not the same thing.

Importantly, from whatever recent picture of the port that you have seen, do you really believe that in 11 months time, you will have ships lined up the jetties. I don't expect it - at least not before 2019. You are miles away from a completed, working port.

[waterloo01] 01/11/2016 15:52

"Surprised how easily they raised finance"....well for £60m odd they have bought a£120m+ project that is supposed to be cash generative in 12 months. Almost all the risk has been carried by early investors. It's like paying £1m for a house that needs work but done up is worth £3m and retains a decent rental yield.

Not that hard a sell

[azalea] 01/11/2016 15:44

If institutions do not perform in the round for its investors, the latter can always vote with their feet, with personnel in the former, loosing their bonuses if not their jobs.

[saikat] 01/11/2016 15:30

Surprised how easily they raised finance - institutional investors probably don't care so much as they are playing with other people's money; but for UK investors, it would have been much better (as some protection) if there was an Indian money raise and an Indian listing.

[waterloo01] 01/11/2016 12:10

Anyone spot the 'error' in land reclamation? Say they are now 75% complete then go on to say they aim to be 70% complete by end 1st Q 17. I know they are used to going backwards but still....

Really need to see the financial forecasts. Arden?

[dice1950] 01/11/2016 04:34

SKIL Ports & Logistics (LON:SPL) yet another AIM overseas disaster

[diku] 31/10/2016 23:25

10p in open market will come again...

[waterloo01] 31/10/2016 16:11

Divi, have they put out any revenue forecasts? Arden (See they get a nice fee).

[cockerhoop] 31/10/2016 16:05

Yes but previous investors now own <11% of the company rather than 100%!

[deepvalueinvestor] 31/10/2016 16:03

Well, it could have been worse! I am obviously relieved that L&G are digging deep and will have to follow. It has been an utter shambles but the fundamental case remains the same.

[twistednik] 31/10/2016 14:48

Yes, those institutions who invested in an IPO with shares at 250p and nursing over a 95% loss on their money.

Let's just trust those guys! Forgive me if I would prefer to see some evidence of progress with my own eyes!

Those institutions will already have a significant % of the equity so the decision is binary in terms of being wiped out or putting in additional funds.

For those private investors sitting on the side-lines, there is no clear rationale why you should invest at this point in time...

[azalea] 31/10/2016 14:02

Who better to know all/most of the answers, than the institutions who are putting in most of the extra money.

[twistednik] 31/10/2016 13:50

Surprised they got the placing away but major dilution for existing shareholders as expected. It's a long way back to 30p for this one...

The institutions would have no doubt done some serious diligence before throwing more 'good' money after 'bad' and have come to the conclusion that this additional money should add value to the overall project and that there is the opportunity to get the Port operational.

That provides some comfort, but for the average private investor, without benefiting from full info on the project, site visits, meetings with management etc, and bearing in mind their current track record of missing all targets, this still feels like a complete gamble.

IMHO there is no investment case here until they can demonstrate they can get the port operational. Further delays and another fund-raising could see the shares significantly down from their current level whilst a lot of the upside (in share price) has disappeared due to the massive dilution.

[waterloo01] 31/10/2016 11:58

Well, it's not going bust or taken private by Gandhi and co and while the dilution is painful, it's not the wipe out feared. Good also to see ITD taking a small stake and Flight.

I've got a number of questions (such as cash flow forecasts, and why this time is different), but they have managed to raise £36m, so serious investors can see value here.

The question for an investor is with a market cap post dilution, what would an appropriate valuation be (assuming it now gets to be fully opened)?

[grabster] 31/10/2016 11:47

Will the company change its name whilst keeping open the existing AIM listing, retaining the SPL ? If they change both the name and the ticker, will they take the opportunity to cancel the existing listing and launch a fresh listing? Or can they change both the name and the ticker? Or will they bend the rules to run 'Skil Ports Ltd' as a separate company under the current listing and give Mercantile a new listing?

MPL used to be the ticker for Montpelier Group. Searches for that ticker will still bring up Monpelier's history on some sites, or will redirect people to the ticker that replaced it.


Whichever they do, the namechange conveniently disconnects the company from some of its internet history. A bit like renaming Windscale as Sellafield to try and disconnect from the big fire incident.

[azalea] 31/10/2016 11:41

Not that I can remember;you might be able to jog my memory by pinpointing my post. Modi and his party only came to power in May 2014. Before then,with a coalition government in power,red tape and political in fighting was rife. Name me a port that was built on time and within budget this century.

[pj 1] 31/10/2016 11:28

Didn't you post that 2, 3 and 4 years ago azalea?