Rexam Share Discussion Threads

[dr_smith] 14/12/2015 16:59

OK, that's a good excuse Wad, we'll let you off semi-bailing. ;-)

[wad collector] 14/12/2015 16:23

Just sold some at 594 ; only because the rest of the market has dropped , buying some higher yielders at bargain prices.

[wad collector] 11/12/2015 10:15

The upside seems minimal now and I think there are better places to invest . There is no dividend for 5 months and it might yet fall a hurdle , or have to give away concessions to clear a hurdle.
I sold some yesterday , and that £6 target might let me sell a lot more soon.
But I suppose it depends on your investing strategy.

[redartbmud] 10/12/2015 16:45

wad

Are you still tempted to sell. I am getting itchy fingers.

red

[wad collector] 10/12/2015 16:27

Ball up 3.5% on opening has pushed Rex up to £6 briefly. May go up a few more pence in the morning is there is further Ball share price strengthening.

[dr_smith] 10/12/2015 15:36

As always, there is also the potential for a market rise once the completion is done and cross-selling pays off and cost base reduced etc, but equally if the merger collapses the normal business momentum may be hit, but my finger in the air test favours post merger business gains, which should feed into sp, so I continue to hold ftb.

[wad collector] 10/12/2015 14:28

GBP4.07 in cash and 0.04568 of a New Ball Share for every Rexam Ordinary Share held.
ball $68.85 , so $3.14 exchange rate 1.52 =£2.06 plus £4.07 = £6.13
currently 592p gap now only 21p or 3.5%
The logic of holding is weakening.
I am setting some sell limits for a few pence more. ( I have too many ) 595 first one

[dr_smith] 07/12/2015 11:55

Thank-you for doing the sums Wad or if you want to pickup on stateside lingo, 'doing the math'( I hate that dropped 's').

If we say avg 6m wait time, 5% equates to 10% p.a. with an assumed 'probable' completion.

I keep telling myself to take low risk strategies, so personally will continue to hold ftb.

[wad collector] 07/12/2015 10:26

Sp closing in on the 592 high when the takeover first announced. Ball share price sim at $69.77 , exchange rate 1.51 not moved much .Current share price 585p , which is now 26p short of the 611p offer price.
The gap closes. Hold for 5% , but still some uncertainty, no closure date and the hassle of a foreign listing? I am getting tempted. A rival bid seems v unlikely to me. Can I do better with the cash elsewhere?

[wad collector] 20/11/2015 16:48

Ball has gone up to $69.45 , so deal now worth £6.23 (ignoring dividends). Thus the recent REX share price rise to 568 close today is 55p off the offer price. The gap is closing.
Personally I will keep waiting ; if it was 20p off then I would probably sell at this stage.

[dr_smith] 06/11/2015 15:23

Hi Wad, Thank you for post. Somehow before reading I knew it would say "keep waiting". ;_)

[wad collector] 06/11/2015 14:29

Sharp share price rise this afternoon ; only news I can find is last week's.

EU regulators extend $6.8 billion Ball, Rexam deal review to Dec. 23
BRUSSELS - European Union antitrust regulators will decide by Dec. 23 whether to clear U.S. drinks can maker Ball Corp's (BLL.N) 4.43-billion-pound ($6.8 billion) proposed takeover of British peer Rexam (REX.L), a two-week delay agreed with the companies.

The European Commission's previous deadline was Dec. 9.

"The Commission decided with the agreement of the parties to extend the in-depth investigation by 10 working days, as foreseen in the merger regulation," spokesman Ricardo Cardoso said in an email.

The world's two largest beverage can makers by volume are looking to merge to better manage capital spending and costs. However, the EU competition enforcer is concerned that the deal would push up prices for companies
image: hxxp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png

and consumers.

Ball has said it is prepared to sell assets with sales of more than $1.58 billion to fend off regulatory worries. It is likely to offer concessions next month.

[wad collector] 22/10/2015 21:35

GBP4.07 in cash and 0.04568 of a New Ball Share for every Rexam Ordinary Share held.


0.04568 x 68.42= $3.12 usd/ster 0.65 so £2.03

total £6.10
closing price £5.36 , so still 74p upside .Or 14%. That is still quite a gap. Even for a closure 6 months or so away.
Suggests there is still significant doubt . Despite the Rexam statement ; "It is expected that all necessary regulatory clearances will be obtained by the first half of 2016. "
Something does not add up.

[wad collector] 05/10/2015 11:48

Brazil ; hmm , suspect that all issues there are resolved by mouth stuffing of cash.

[dr_smith] 01/10/2015 17:05

If it is similar to planning permissions for building, a decline for specific reasons can be good, as it can be taken to mean, if you change the proposal to accommodate those reasons then you can expect a 'yes'.
Given the share price is the normal daily trend, it implies the big boys in the know don't read it as an issue.
I'd like to know how a sub-ordinate co can be effectively managed on a prolonged t/o as you lose incentive to carry on as before, as you don't know if initiatives for more/new business, investment in infrastucture & staff may be usurped by Ball t/o.
I see DL has EPS growth as -2% for this year. and 8% next year.
My notes at 5/2/15 (pre t/o anouncement) has these figures as -2% and 7%, so implies market consenus of 1% better due to merger in 2016.

IMO DYOR :-)

[wad collector] 01/10/2015 12:11

Difficult to know what to make of it , see the FT;
2 hours ago
URL Twitter
Could the excitement at drinks can giants Rexam and Ball about their multi-billion dollar transatlantic tie-up be losing some fizz?

Ball has told shareholders it has received a statement of objections from the European Commission about the tie-up.

The Colorado-based group did not say what these objections were, although the transaction had been expected to face a thorough review from competition authorities in both the EU and the US. Rexam's shares were unaffected by the news, and are up 1.3 per cent on the day to 530.5p.

A combined company would control about 61 per cent of the market for drinks cans in North America, according to analysts. In Europe, Rexam and Ball would have a combined market share of about 69 per cent, and about 74 per cent in Brazil.

In its statement, Ball said it was confident all the parties involved in the deal would be able to remedy the EU's objections and obtain clearance, claiming:

Ball values the insight which the SO brings on the on-going EU regulatory process. It is the view of Ball that the concerns raised in the SO allow the parties to develop the appropriate and adequate remedy package to bring about the successful clearance by the EU's competition authority of this proposed acquisition. It is expected that all necessary regulatory clearances will be obtained to enable the proposed acquisition to close during the first half of 2016.

[dr_smith] 14/9/2015 16:47

Thank-you for foing the maths Wad, or for our US/Ball readers, should I say math ;-)

If I had a crystal ball back in April, I would have sold for 580+, but I don't, so will hold too.
I am happy with mergers, but not the prolonged lead up, as well as the uncertainty, it must be hard for the respective co's to plan, as they will be constantly asking themselves,"shall we kick off initiative to do xyz" with undercurrent of "what is the point, lets wait until after the merger" with consequence of lost impetus, which goes against the merits of the merger.

I also have TCY which is in a prolonged..... zzzzzzzzzz..sorry..dozed off.....merger with US entity.

Perhaps a lesson for the future on mergers where timetable is unclear or protracted, but safe and long is my usual mantra.

I know there are compliance procedures outside their control, but I still can't help feeling the merger could be a damn site quicker.

[wad collector] 14/9/2015 15:50

407p in cash and 0.04568 new Ball shares
Ball currently $66.16 or £42.96 at todays $1.54 exchange rate =196p

so total 603p which is still 60p upside on today's 543p price. It won't go xd again until April , so there would appear to be a large gap , presumably reflecting uncertainty about the deal. That equates to a 10% upside if the deal happens.
I shall hold.

[dr_smith] 30/7/2015 19:18

I agree Wad, through ignorance in my case.
Performance must figure in takeover, but at same time they have seemingly agreed terms, so I'm just letting it run its course for time being.

[wad collector] 22/7/2015 17:38

Gosh that is slow! Rather paralyses the share price for another 6 months at least , and even then the other hoops need to be jumped.
I can see why some investors are taking today's price instead of hanging on , especially as the deal may fail.
I suppose I will just sit and wait , collecting the divis and further capital gain. Unless the deal crashes and we all curse.