Rexam Share Discussion Threads

[dr_smith] 21/7/2015 08:13

Ball Corp says EC starts Phase II review of Rexam deal


Press snooze and roll over until H1 2016....

[pilgrim] 29/6/2015 17:16

I use this one for up-coming events.

[wad collector] 15/6/2015 12:38

That was amusing - Ball filed a form 8K about ten minutes ago and I suspect some analyst (knowing about as much as me about American stock market regulation ie nothing) thought this was a green light and the price jumped 20p for about a minute before returning to 565p.

Less amusing is an american broker's take on the deal;

But after further analysis of recent regulatory decisions, we believe regulators in North America, Europe, and South America will require Ball to sell more plants than the market anticipates, enough to undermine the economics of the deal. We think the most likely outcome is that Ball will exercise its right to end the deal and pay Rexam a breakup fee, and most of the gains in Ball, Rexam, and Crown share prices over the past few months will unwind. We would avoid investing in any of the three major beverage can companies at this time.


There is more detail in an older post;
hxxp://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=700434

[dr_smith] 05/6/2015 10:42

Thank-you Wad for the number juggling.
Other things equal, the gap should reduce pro rata over time, so surpised it hasn't tickled up a bit.
Re August date, it is a required legality and seems to assume it will be an 'in favour' thumbs up by Balls shareholders.
It is conceivable any lack of increment in REX share price could be doubt in REX shareholders that the presumably US based Ball shareholders have about joining lot over the pond.
I believe it will be a yes/no decison, not say 'yes if we can get the price down a bit'.
All IMO, assumed or implied from headline/RNS statements and normal business protocol.

[wad collector] 05/6/2015 10:02

£2.09 is the Ball price converted to sterling today + £4.07 cash = £6.16

so the gap of 64p at current price today is not so dissimilar from 3 months ago when it was 53p including the dividend which has now passed.

So most of the drop is the sterling rise vs the dollar with a slip of the Ball price. I wasn't aware of the August date - is that significant? As you say , more uncertainty for employees than anyone else.

[dr_smith] 04/6/2015 14:13

Hi Wad,
Yes, the downward trend mirrors FTSE, but REX down more than FTSE.
I can only guess it is a symptom of waiting to 19/8/15 Ball meeting, and even if they say yes on published terms, there could be a further wait after that to conclude the legalities.
If MM's can use the balance to make more elsewhere than REX in the interim, then less motivation to wait it out.
I was/am investing with 1Y/2Y horizon, so happy to wait it out.

I wonder how REX staff/employees feel about waiting months to know what their future holds, and whether, from our persective, their enthusiasm and output is dampened, pending a known outcome.

[wad collector] 04/6/2015 12:56

Sp slipping last month ; Ball only down 1% , is there increasing doubt?

[wad collector] 11/5/2015 23:00

Must confess I have little experience of the American Takeover timescales and how to read between the lines , but I have quite a lot of REX so remain interested.

[dr_smith] 11/5/2015 14:00

Cheers Wad.
Is that 2 offers? Ball and Bell Corporation? ;-)
Typo I'm sure.
Thank-you for the update, I don't tend to watch Ball direct, so handy to keep abreast.
Good news I guess that adverse currency rates isn't deterring them from the takeover.

[wad collector] 11/5/2015 12:29

Thanks for spotting that in the hailstorm of RNS. Ball share price is holding at $72.3 - pretty stable for a month or so.

From Beaufort Securities;
Rexam (LON:REX) – Hold

On Friday, the Ball Corporation informed that the process of requisite regulatory approvals for the acquisition of Rexam is proceeding as expected. On 19th February, the company had announced the terms of a recommended cash and share offer to buy the entire issued or to be issued share capital of the Rexam. The company would have cash flow in the range of US$600m excluding the cash costs of proposed acquisition. Moreover, several currency and interest rate hedges are likely to be introduced in order to mitigate the risk related to the acquisition. Meanwhile the Ball Corporation also announced its first quarter earnings that signalled lower net earnings for the Q1 2015 owing to a weak euro. The net earnings attributable to the company for 2014 stood at US$470.0m compared to US$552.8m in the comparable period. The business consolidation and other activities net of tax were US$62.2m and the debt refinancing costs net of tax was reported to be US$20.6m. The ball corporation expects the interest expense in 2015 to around US$147m and the effective tax rate to be just over27%. For the year 2015, the company expects the net earnings to be at or below US$495m.

Our view: Following the cash and share offer in February, the acquirer, Ball Corporation has announced a profit warning for the year for the first time due to the negative impact of a declining euro. The company is moving ahead as planned for the proposed acquisition and is taking several steps to control the risk related to interest and currency headwinds in order to have minimal impact on the company’s financials. On the other hand, Rexam has already witnessed a sharp rise in the share price following the proposed share and cash offer from Bell Corporation. Rexam continues to perform well and enjoys strong fundamentals with a robust presence in the UK markets. However, the recent run up in the price may provide limited scope for upside potential. Thus we move the stock to Hold for now.

[dr_smith] 07/5/2015 08:40

I don't normally post RNS items as they can clog up forums, but with all the Forms 8.3 and 8.5 flying around you may miss this
7/5/15 RECONFIRMED QUANTIFIED FINANCIAL BENEFITS (SYNERGIES) STATEMENTS

Extract:

"Today, Ball filed a proxy statement in the United States with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission which repeats these estimated cost savings and synergies (together, the "Reconfirmed Quantified Financial Benefits Statements"), and PwC UK and Greenhill have confirmed that the original reports, dated 19 February 2015, which had been provided remain valid for the Reconfirmed Quantified Financial Benefits Statements."

My take on this is continued intent on behalf of Ball.
My eyes became glazed reading small print, but couldn't spot anything indicative of time frame for t/o.

[wad collector] 30/4/2015 08:33

Why?

It is currently down more than the Dividend of 11.8p .

[simon8] 29/4/2015 10:23

ex div tomorrow, record date Friday...mmm sell on Monday!!?????

[dr_smith] 28/4/2015 08:23

To answe my earlier question on the Ball timeline, todays trading update has footnote:
---------------------------------------
On 19 February 2015, Ball and Rexam announced that they had reached agreement on the terms of a recommended offer for Rexam. As previously announced, the offer requires approval from Ball's shareholders at the Ball Shareholders' Meeting, to be held by 19 August 2015. Prior to the meeting, Ball will be filing a Proxy Statement with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, the final version of which will include Rexam's Q1 2015 results with 2014 comparatives.
---------------------------------------
If this is typical of US corporate structures to take circa 6 months for a decision, that implies they are unable to be able to take timely decsions and will typically miss business opportunities as and when they arise. I do like prudency, but this is... zzzzzzzzzzzzz.

I was thinking of spreading my portfolio to include US & other countries, but if this timescale is typical of US corporates in a global economy I'll give them a miss.

[wad collector] 24/4/2015 22:44

Ball 74.56 exchange rate 1.52 still £6.31

[dr_smith] 13/4/2015 16:43

Red:
Cheers.
I'll keep a stiff upper lip then and go change out of my shell suit. ;-)

[redartbmud] 13/4/2015 15:22

DR_S

don't forget they are dealing with Yanks - laid back, open neck shirts and no tie, trainers. Not like the Brits damn it.

red

[dr_smith] 13/4/2015 15:06

I expected a Ball offer timetable by now.
The 19/2/15 doc says timetable will be anounced 'in due course' (near bottom of page 2):

hxxp://www.rexam.com/assets/files/cms/Ball_Corporation_offer/ball_rexam_2_7_announcement.pdf

Has anyone seen any dates, or is it just a some day happy go lucky 'whenever' approach, which doesn't sound very business like?

[redartbmud] 11/4/2015 22:58

Should be Xd 30.04.15 for 11.90p.

[housemartin2] 11/4/2015 12:56

Correct Ganthorpe and this year's interim divi as well as this should be declared and paid before the deal closes, I guess.

[ganthorpe] 11/4/2015 09:11

Won't holders also receive an 11.9p divi ?
Or have I missed something?
Regards
GAN

[wad collector] 25/3/2015 16:57

Rexam shareholders will receive 407p in cash and 0.04568 new Ball shares.

todays Ball price is 70.65 so $3.22 or £2.16 at todays 1.49 exchange rate

so total is £6.23
So there is still a 40p upside , depending on your gambling tendancy...