Ramco Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bones698] 22/12/2010 21:52

hi namo yes its much more peaceful here than elsewhere and i prefer it that way, only a few of the old timers will recall this bb and given it was a very humourous and knowledgeable place i felt it was the best place to post considering i have been on it from the start. there is also the fact that it was run by a good friend who has past away so i would expect it will help keep things civil out of respect.

5 business days left this year so looking likely it will be jan before news but at least the graphic may be pointing to happier times ahead.

i also asked in that email if they would be ok for a lengthy talk after the sale news is released to discuss the company going forward which berty was fine with, i have a lot of questions going forward and a few looking back as to the handling of projects which may help in the future.i hope they are able to open up after the sale is concluded and update recieved.

[nam0] 22/12/2010 21:31

Thanks for sharing bones, so this is where you hide.

I bet the greeting is done by Steve Remp's son, 2 years ago (edit: at the 2009 AGM) when I was chatting to him at the AGM, one of his interests was graphic design. Good for him if that is the case.

[bones698] 22/12/2010 12:10

looking odds against a sale before xmas now tbh only 5 days left this year although remp is ooo and has been for almost 2 weeks now so maybe.also interesting seasons greetings on the sea website, is it a hint or just a season greeting ? knowing remp you would think the former tbh but maybe thats just hoping.

reply i got from berty last week

Lampe Conway have been very supportive of the company and we expect that if an extension to the current loan agreement is required that it will be forthcoming. They have provided similar extension both to SeaEnergy and Lansdowne in the past.



Sorry but little I can say on the sale process other than, we are all doing our best to bring it to a successful conclusion, not all of the jigsaw pieces are within our control (today's announcement is a good example) so timing remains fluid.


Best regards,


Steven

[bones698] 16/12/2010 15:23

the bit that has me is iits out of their hands????

what are they waiting on SEA's ?
Buyer getting money for the purchase?
CE permission?
Inch cape percentage from CE

thats about all i can think of that could take the sale out of our hands. i still think they think it can be done before year end with what they say regarding the lc extension has shown they have not yet asked the question about extending and with only 10 business days left thats getting close.

what i expect from the sale is 20m, what i want is 50m+ and even with all our knowledge and research the point is none of us have the foggiest idea of what we will get for it, an unusual situation for sure

[skirbell] 16/12/2010 05:25

Reading between the lines ;)
"Sorry but little I can say on the sale process"
Someone else is in control

"other than, we are all doing our best to bring it to a successful conclusion,"
we had our Christmas party the other night and we're doing our best to stay awake/not throw up/not pass out at the moment

"not all of the jigsaw pieces are within our control (today's announcement is a good example)"
we don't have a clue what now needs to be done to get this thing out the door

"so timing remains fluid."
We're not going to deliver before year end.

[bones698] 16/12/2010 01:20

from berty today

Lampe Conway have been very supportive of the company and we expect that if an extension to the current loan agreement is required that it will be forthcoming. They have provided similar extension both to SeaEnergy and Lansdowne in the past.



Sorry but little I can say on the sale process other than, we are all doing our best to bring it to a successful conclusion, not all of the jigsaw pieces are within our control (today's announcement is a good example) so timing remains fluid.

[bones698] 09/12/2010 15:06

yup i agree its looking like its going to go beyond the end of year deadline and they have started to alter their wording to show this. cant say that is a surprise with sea tbh they have hardly ever hit a target date they have set for anything

anyway back to logp just redoing the calcs after the recent news.

if we do buy back logp then here is some interesting numbers, lets look at the newly acquired field.

10000 bopd of which 10% is logp so 1000bopd
costs i would estimate at $30 max per barrel. i use this because that was 7h cost for much more awkward oil with wax in that this does not have
current oil price $80+
even this is 20m dollars a year.to logp
now at that rate the field will last only 3.5 years be4fore exhausted but what a 3 years :)

i believe that money would then go straight into barryroe development which has the abillity to provide oil for over 30 years even at 20000bopd. using the p50 reserve at another 50% reduced rate

big numbers going forward but we need something to fill the gap until they come online imho

[snobtimus shaime] 09/12/2010 13:46

if you check the thread you will find I agree with you

[skirbell] 09/12/2010 13:35

EDPR may not currently be struggling but can they take on SERL's interests that will likely require another £1Bn+ on top to bring to full development? Larger companies than edpr have stepped back from projects due to the funding commitments required.

It's been intimated that the CE wanted to have some involvement in the sale and they may now be pushing for a partner that is well funded to move these projects forward. At least that was my thinking.

And on the other thread, latest email response from SEA is 'optimistic that the deal will be concluded by Christmas'. You may disagree but 'optimistic' is a term that I use when the risk of something not being delivered on time increases but isn't quite enough to justify a reworking of the delivery date.

[snobtimus shaime] 09/12/2010 07:40

EDPR are not struggling for funds skir, there is no reason to rule them out

[skirbell] 09/12/2010 07:34

I think edpr already have a lot of commitment and therefore future capex expenditure in their portfolio without adding more. They may struggle to fund the additional projects.

And I'll sign up to your logp theory after looking into it a bit further. Remp is an oil man at heart and I think he'd like to retire after being in charge of a company that actually produces the stuff.

[bones698] 08/12/2010 15:22

yes as good as any other tbh. personally i still think edpr will be the winner just because they need serl more and its a better fit than any other already knowing them. that puts the icing on the cake

totally convinced sea will be buying logp back now and will make a bid after converting their shares. i am extremely confident this will happen for several reasons.

what they do with it and the serl money will be interesting to see in the update

[snobtimus shaime] 08/12/2010 12:25

As plausible as any other bidder for sure

[skirbell] 08/12/2010 12:21

I stuck this on the other thread but it got lost in a wave of people getting excited about a 0.25p upward movement....

I've got a long range punt as to who the purchaser of SERL might be - Statkraft. I stumbled across this yesterday,


You have to assume that SEA have known who the purchaser is for some time to conclude by year end. Therefore, they must be waiting for something and funding could be one. Statkraft ticks the boxes for the following reasons,
1. Stated ambition to increase wind generation
2. Already has some wind generation in the UK
3. Has a largish portfolio of renewable and green generation
4. 14B NOK (£1.4B) would allow them to start developing the sites - possibly a pre-requisite of TCE
5. Funding to be concluded by the Norwegian govt in December, just before year end and the expected completion of the sale

[bones698] 07/12/2010 17:32

just tried looking into what percentage sea could gain

we own 29.87% of logp which is 12.1m shares 42.61m in issue

if we took the 1m loan they owe us and turn into shares that gives us approx 10m at 10p

we would then own 22.1m shares out of 52.61m still short of 50%

converted at 6p would just about give us 50% though

very interesting to note that the last deal took us below 30% !!!!!!!! meaning we could convert the loan and launch a takeover which is triggered at 30% unless you get conscessions to avoid this.

just seems very coincidental that the last deal by mr anderson has brought us fractionally below this threshold so i wonder if going back through it would mean us either having to get another conscession or is in fact pointing to what i said earlier that sea want to buy logp back and will make a bid when they get the serl money

[bones698] 03/12/2010 14:42

hi snob i decided to resurrect it given the influx elsewhere, not too many will know about it so it should be a good place to talk, also have a laugh like the good old days. smoke me a kipper :)

when we finally get the rns on the serl sale it will be vital we get to see near term revenue generation projects, something there does not seem to be in any of the assets we currently hold, the last thing we want to see is the cash dwindle away paying for wages because we have no revenue.if we get 50-100m then it isnt something to worry about too much but 15-30m and it becomes far more of a concern imho.with sea gone running costs of sea should drop massively to maybe 1.5m p.a as there will only be a handful of staff left.i am hoping remp has a few surprises in the statementof things we are not aware of, something they can move quickly on and may supply this revenue to keep things ticking along. i wonder what the old pipe business is going for these days lol !!

a lot hinges on what they get for serl, we all know that but what happens in the near future and how it is said will also dictate peoples appetite to stay .

2 weeks to get the deal done and announced i reckon before companies start going on holiday for xmas. will we get an xmas present or just a goose? :)

[snobtimus shaime] 03/12/2010 13:43

glad this thread is still about

[bones698] 03/12/2010 12:30

also noted that they have increased their loan by another 250k again so by the time sea swaps it into shares they will have control of logp again although the equity arrangement with lc still remains so they are infact in control of the company.

timescales still look to far away to generate much interest and thenew license they have bought into isnt that inspiring with only 10m boo reserves tbh, still its more than they have done for over 3 years.

serl sale is beginning to take the urine as always with sea its down to the last minute and beyond, considering it first started off as being around 2 months and although the timeline has been extended due to interest they are now making done by xmas look very close to the wire. always the same with sea and i think this will be the last straw for many. lets just hope they get a super price for serl, more than we expect, although i still cant see 30m give or take a few mill being beaten. i hope to stand corrected but i dont think i will.

one thing that has frustrated me was the sale of a world class asset in bulgaria for peanuts. its turned into a monster and was sold for next to nothing. there were reasons at the time as cash was very tight and hindsight is easy to use but it has annoyed me that we seem to have kept less prosperous assets and sold the gems for peanuts

[skirbell] 03/12/2010 10:41

LOGP update which includes an asset swap with Providence. Doesn't look like production from Ballyroe to happen any time soon as they are going to carry out 3D seismic first. However, there might be a possibility of production within 2 years of project sanction due in 2011 on their new asset. Based on this, I'm inclined to go with your hypothesis bones that some of the cash raised in the SERL sale might go to buying back into LOGP to fund these projects. If this is the case, I'm not overly happy, SEA still won't have a clear strategic direction what with E&P activities, off shore turbine servicing and on shore drilling in the ME. Bit of a mixed bag with no focus.

I'm also annoyed as I was hoping that the SERL sale would be through by now and I could start pulling my money out. I had the proceeds marked for WTI but that has already started moving and I'm not as loaded as I wanted to be! Grrrr.

[bunnji] 02/12/2010 13:11

dum dee dum, Come on Rempy ffs, our Etty's annual Trafford centre pilgrimage looms large.

[bones698] 30/11/2010 01:08

Lol hi bunji btw. Well not many days left before we know the price for serl and the future plans for sea. Both are important as they will decide weather many people stay or go I suspect. Interesting share price movements last couple of days but I am beginning to think that it may well be traders getting in on t20s knowing serl news is due.really hope that mpc can be resurrected as that is one of the only things I would stay for even if the chances are slim it may justify a few months longer.

Sea marine doesn't get me excited at all with lots of risks and possible big outlay required which would hit the money gained from serl in coming years.

For me there has to be a very good plan covering different options and scenarios as anything can change and if they are not prepared then it could turn sour yet again.

Many strings to our bow used to be the moto here , it needs to be so again with cash on the hip and used very wisely and sparingly . Also early income Is a must to settle cash flow worries for the forseeable future , something we haven't had since the tube buisness hmmm

One note of interest so to speak is interest on 30m would be about 1.5m easy and would cover the running costs of what remains of sea going forward imho