Queen's Walk Investment Share Discussion Threads

[nickcduk] 06/8/2009 20:45

Property sector has been rocketing recently. Think 3 euros is a little optimistic short term. Just need next trading statement to confirm that defaults are coming in under budget. With Euribor rates having fallen sharply we should see continuing signs of that.

[davebowler] 06/8/2009 16:45

Next stop 3.00.

[nickcduk] 21/7/2009 11:13

Was probably a little lazy of me but I hadn't really a clue on how Portuguese house prices have fared over the last few years. I would have thought it would have been similar to Spain's mega bull market but apparently not. Portuguese house prices have barely risen over the last 7 years. Much better support than I had envisaged even if defaults pick up.

[pregonda] 17/7/2009 06:39

the key issue once we reach 2.50 is whether we can start to see some NAV growth. QWIL set out clearly their assumptions on how they value their 'equity' investments in their securitisations. Default rate assumptions are significantly higher than current experience. Prepayment rates may also slow which will significantly enhance valuation. I will certainly be looking for some NAV progression in the second half of this year.

[nickcduk] 16/7/2009 16:16

New battleground is at 2.15 now. Seller knocked a few out at that level but obviously not keen to show entire hand so far.

[nickcduk] 16/7/2009 16:10

I think what has changed recently is that economies on the whole are getting better. Or should I say not heading to the Armageddon that the markets were factoring in. Now there is a realisation that house price falls will not be as bad as forecast. Investors are now chasing the high yields on offer where they soon huge room for recovery. QWIL is perfectly poised to make some exceptional returns. Whoever wants in realises these returns are not going to be around forever and so is trying to get in swiftly. I think around 2.50 might be fair value. On a yield of around 12.8% or so that level and still a chunky enough discount to NAV.

[sommet2] 16/7/2009 15:49

nick,
Several weeks ago there was some discussion and broad agreement that 2.00 was a good short term price.Now we have exceeded this do you think it will stay around current levels or is there more to come. I am trying to understand why the "aggressive buyer" sees value.In particular I notice the ECB was reported this morning as saying it was stepping up purchases of "covered bonds" and was wondering if this would benefit QWIL.

[sportbilly1976] 16/7/2009 15:01

CITI just joined the party on a 2.12-2.27 spread....

[eeza] 16/7/2009 10:03

None of my purchases have ever showed.

[nickcduk] 16/7/2009 10:02

sommet2,

I still think the dividend will be covered. If it isn't wholly then any deferred income simply turns into accrued income and improves NAV. The rise in NAV will come about from changes in market perceptions on default rates and losses on those loans that default. Aggressive buyer is still around and trying to tempt a few sellers out. Sellers are playing hardball and moving up their price. CAZ have been selling a fair bit so I imagine they are doing the business for one of the sellers. Once positive NAV growth is reported I expect the share price to rise sharply as the market realises it turns into an asset play as much as income play.

[sportbilly1976] 16/7/2009 09:41

my purchase from yesterday is not showing on my monitor / trades screen - are these tradable on another exchange? (I have tried looking on Plus but its not there)

tia

[sommet2] 15/7/2009 19:50

Nick,
I forget the exact details but they mentioned in the last report that the first quarter income or was it first half income included some items that would not reoccur leading me to believe that to maintain the div they may have to pay some of it out of capital.They also said that one of their largest holdings was deferring interest payments until redemption which would further cut the quarterly income.The NAV also includes cash balances so if they tap into these to help pay the div surely it will impact on the NAV unless there is price appreciation in the debt securities.

To be honest I did not buy QWIL for capital gain but it has come as a good surprise.I am kicking myself for not buying some more at 1.85 recently but if they dip I will top up.

[nickcduk] 15/7/2009 19:33

Sommet - NAV growth doesn't really have much to do with dividend. The dividend is paid out of recurring income generated during the quarter. The increase in NAV will come about via re-pricing of their investments. A lot of it has been marked down to prices which suggest Armageddon is ahead of us. Once different metrics are imputed a share reversal of previous write downs is on the cards.

[sportbilly1976] 15/7/2009 16:30

looking nice :-))

[sommet2] 15/7/2009 10:52

sportbilly,
I find it very difficult to value this because most of the debt securities they hold seem to be issued by Portuguese entities or are tied into the property market there.The ECB recently announced a very large purchase of European corporate debt and I wonder if they could benefit from this.With regard to NAV appreciation I think this will be slow if they continue to pay such fantastic dividends.Very happy to hold.

[eeza] 15/7/2009 10:50

And still circa 16% yield.

[sportbilly1976] 15/7/2009 10:32

just bought a few on the breakout potential here..

[nickcduk] 15/7/2009 10:25

I think there is a large buyer in the wings trying to get on board here. Trying to be patient it seems and wait for sellers to turn up rather than aggressively chasing price higher. Unemployment data coming in better than expected and house prices stabilising are the 2 key metrics for us. Both seem to be coming in our favour. Next statement should hopefully confirm progress on both. At that point we might see a chunky increase in NAV.

[zastas] 11/7/2009 15:48

Indeed, it was very quiet again. For no apparent reason, little drop first to 178-185 and then next days very heavy constant buying all day with MM 3000 sizes, back to its recent all-time high.

I haven't seen much of TMBS lately, perhaps he/she is sunning him/herself in Acapulco. A well-deserved break from Blighty, overpopulated with a dependency underclass and run by a deluded money-printing one-eyed history ( of the Labour party ) doctor with only one half of two Balls left in his support.

Not much to see of any sellers and I am not going to be one of them as I
cannot see any better use of the money at the moment. Anyhow, our divi is coming soon. Sadly some of it has to go to keep the underclass comfy. I can see two bogus-invalids with shiny new Motability saloons on their driveway just now. Acapulco, here I come....

[davebowler] 10/7/2009 13:34

Next leg up I hope

[zastas] 17/6/2009 13:17

Gentlemen,

I agree: even a little better than my positive expectations. Remember, this all applies to the worst -so far- quarter as markets were concerned. There will probably now be an extended pause around 2 Euro for a while, until we see a decent uplift of the NAV appearing too.

[davebowler] 17/6/2009 13:13

Having listened to the results presentation,Yes its looking good.

[eeza] 17/6/2009 13:11

Anyone know the XD date?

[nickcduk] 17/6/2009 13:06

At year end net debt was around 11m. Thats improved since so there should be plenty of ammunition for new investments.

[nickcduk] 17/6/2009 12:48

CC was pretty bullish. Had Goldmans and JP Morgan on it which might account for the recent interest. Debt is way below where they had targeted which is good news. The debt figure they quoted was gross I believe so when you net the cash off that I think the position leaves plenty of scope for new investments. Good to hear plenty of opportunities are still available. Next results will hopefully confirm that falling Euribor will have reduced default rates. Until then the shares may just tread water. Happy to collect the 8c dividend whilst they do.