Queen's Walk Investment Share Discussion Threads

[nickcduk] 11/6/2010 07:43

Happy with today's results. They have paid off debt and expect to have around 8m in cash by end June. NAV was up and investment grade bonds now make up over 20% of the investment portfolio. Good to see they are reducing exposure to the SME portfolio by making profitable divestments. Portugal seems to be holding up ok and I don't see why they can't dispose of Magellan 1 by the year end. Magellan 2 was called in ahead of forecast in the quarter. Cash flows remain healthy and ahead of forecasts and cover the the 32c a year dividend. UK portfolio performing very well. Should see a move higher today. If not I will be on ebay looking to sell my gran.

[eeza] 11/6/2010 07:30

All looks good to my untrained eye. Any views from the more experienced?

[eeza] 10/6/2010 16:52

Still holding all mine, and hoping.
Appreciate your views on tomorrow's IMS, Nick.

[nickcduk] 10/6/2010 16:19

Not sure how many left in here but results out tomorrow. Been a horrible year for shareholders here. Portuguese and Italian exposure obviously doing the damage. Been adding on the way down though and have racked up some pretty big losses thus far but still bullish. Company has net cash and investment grade bonds which equate to about 80c I think. They are expecting around 4.5m or so in cashflow for the quarter excluding the Magellan sale. They are likely to exceed this if past history is any guide. Even if assign the Italian and Portuguese assets a zero value the company is still trading on a discount to NAV. Be interesting to see if they have any further comment on Magellan 1. If they can manage to sell that back to BCP the company will have a further 1 euro in cash per share on its balance sheet. In the meantime its just a case of lapping up the 18% yield on offer.

[eeza] 01/5/2010 11:33

TDW paid after 2 days. Sharecentre paid after 4 days.

[centipede] 01/5/2010 11:23

Just got mine in Selftrade on Friday afternoon. The previous payment had a 12 day delay.

[chaffey] 01/5/2010 08:23

Dividend was payable on 16th April but my Selfrade account has still not been credited and I wondered if anyone else has experienced this problem.

[pregonda] 15/4/2010 19:36

still 28% upside to get this onto a single digit yield...

[pregonda] 15/4/2010 19:35

looks like there is life in the old queen yet

[davebowler] 14/4/2010 12:53

Thanks for your views.

[nickcduk] 13/4/2010 17:44

Looked a little more and it doesn't really appeal. Its really complex stuff to me. Not sure where underlying income will settle at and it is far riskier than QWIL if there are further shocks in the economy. Happy to mop up the 13% yield on offer here.

[davebowler] 13/4/2010 15:03

The large discount to asset value ,generous yield and the fact that I know of one fund mananger sniffing around it.

[nickcduk] 12/4/2010 22:21

I looked at it when it was down at around 2p last year and couldn't really understand why directors weren't filling their boots and so left it alone. Doh! A lot of their NAV performance was also down to them marking to market their own debt iirc. Not really followed it since but never really been keen. Anything within GLIF excite you?

[davebowler] 12/4/2010 16:33

nickduk have you looked at GLIF?

[lopsidedgit1] 30/3/2010 10:50

check out nordic land. NLD. 72% discount to NAV.

[nickcduk] 15/3/2010 16:11

Had a chat with Cheyne last week and even more bullish after getting a better understanding of whats going on. Securitisation markets are opening up again now. Lloyds have issued a couple this year so far and others are dipping their toes in the water. Whats bullish about this is that in order to start issuing these again the originators have to show the market that normal service is being resumed. Normal service dictates that originators purchase back portfolios at first call date. Cheyne gave an example of a Barclays bbb rated portfolio that was called in against expectation. This bodes well for Magellan 1 being called in later this year.

Going forward you may see more of a focus on NAV growth rather than income. They are seeing attractive buying opportunities in heavily discounted bonds. Often these bonds are linked to LIBOR so when purchased the income yield they will get will be minuscule. As they approach maturity the return will be generated via capital growth as they return to par.

On the default side I would expect rates to start to fall over the coming year. They recognise a default after 12 months of arrears have built up on the residential portfolio. Euribor rates on the mortgages hit a low for customers around March of last year. The build up of new defaults in pipeline should therefore fall sharply as affordability improved markedly post March.

[nickcduk] 12/3/2010 10:04

Do you have further details pregonda?

Cerrito - They are already in a net cash position. Im not sure why they don't report it that way. Hadn't realised they had such a large holding here. Provides more comfort.

[pregonda] 12/3/2010 07:13

Cazenove issued a positive comment last night. They remain overweight, noting that dividends are comfortably covered by cashflows and that the shares remain at a significant discount to NAV and the shares offer a high IRR for investors.

[cerrito] 11/3/2010 20:17

On the whole encouraged although the problem they are having with the servicing bank in Italy is an unwelcome distraction.
Interesting that they like many others are finding UK delinquencies lower than they had anticipated
Interesting to hear them spell out that their intention is to pay down all debt as they feel their is enough juice without gearing.
Personally I am relaxed with their present level of gearing but given that their in house fund has 55% of the shares i can understand why they may be cautious.
I am sure we are all delighted with reduction in Portugal exposure.

[nickcduk] 11/3/2010 12:00

Conference call was bullish enough. The portfolio mix will change markedly if Magellan 1 gets called in later this year. With more investment grade bonds in the mix the discount to NAV should narrow markedly. Cheyne seem to be very conservative here.

[pregonda] 11/3/2010 11:15

I do note the proforma NAV has risen since the quarter end to 374cents

[pregonda] 11/3/2010 11:14

forget that goldmans idea they are back, but on a 35p spread

[pregonda] 11/3/2010 10:26

goldmans have gone as a marketmaker during the day today - wonder if that was them dumping a residual book position just now? if so that explains the weakness

[nickcduk] 11/3/2010 10:16

Also more importantly just realised that Magellan 1 could be called later this year. I think that equates to about 20m euros. If it does the company will have approx 25m in cash or about 1 euro per share. Fingers crossed it does in fact get called. Magellan 2 being called in last month is hopefully a good omen.