Queen's Walk Investment Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 17/6/2009 12:25

Interested to read that their target debt level as at June 2010 is E12m compared to today's level of debt of E23e.5m ie have to pay just over E3m per quarter which as per above with the dividend would account for most of the E5.5m cash flow
but having said that
they have ample cash cushion and I am sure that Deutsche will not insist or even want such a large amount of debt reduction.

[cerrito] 17/6/2009 11:40

agreed
I assume they will continue with dividend ie would send out a wrong signal to cut it again and in the annual report the Chairman was pretty firm that they would continue at this rate
However if future cash flows are E5.5m per quarter and with the current dividend E2m a quarter there will be little scope for buying more assets and continue to pay down bank debt although I note that post July they will be slowing down their debt reduction programme.Indeed in the present climate I would have thought that Deutsche Bank should be very comfortable with the new reduced amount of debt.
note this morning's gains and scope for it to move up to E2 but not sure if I see it going much higher.

[jahl frezi] 17/6/2009 08:30

confirmed dividend going forward - yielding 18%. Surely it will move today as the City wakes up to this - expect some questions on the call

[qwazi] 17/6/2009 08:12

Good results, company fully stabilised, with cash to deploy for new opps.

[nickcduk] 17/6/2009 07:43

Results and commentary in line with what I expected. Decent cashflow for the quarter aided by a couple of one off contributions. Default rates stabilising and beginning to look better as a result of falling Euribor. Full effects of which will start to be felt next month onwards. Lots of cracking opportunities in the market to pick up bargains as well. Will be listening intently on the cc. Hopefully someone will actually be listening and asking questions this time. Last time no one bothered! Not sure whether the shares will move today though.

[zastas] 15/6/2009 22:24

I have been at work all day. Nice surprise at the end of it. Let's hope you are right Nickcduk, and Wednesday does not disappoint. The EURO is weakening though but not really a surprise.

One reason for the substantial rise appears to be that TMBS does nor seem to have been present today with iceberg sells. Having checked the trades today, there seem to have been only MM 3000 sells. I've often wondered whether our man/woman has indeed Mondays off! Without him/her, we would already be nearing that 320.

[nickcduk] 15/6/2009 14:14

Nice to see some healthy buying pre-results. Often news leaks regarding results and a bit of insider trading takes place. Hopefully the buying has some basis behind it.

qwazi - I end up putting far too much time into the market as it is. Don't really have time to look into Euronext stocks to be honest. The sector as a whole is probably attractive as it was way oversold. Happy with my lot for now. If results commentary and CC is bullish I will probably look to add another large chunk to my holdings. Otherwise I may just stick with what I have.

[jahl frezi] 15/6/2009 13:15

Euro320 gets this to a 10% yield - STILL 83% upside. This all assumes no POSITIVE NAV movement

[nickcduk] 09/6/2009 13:02

Getting a little nervous and tetchy about how much stock is going to be available next week so taken the 11k or so on offer at 1.55 today. A positive article on Bloomberg reminded me of how much debt markets have improved of late.



IG Index haven't hedged my trade off yet but will probably do so shortly.

[zastas] 08/6/2009 14:43

I thought it was all dead again this morning with 150-155. Perhaps TMBS had his/her Monday off again. But having looked at L2 now, in fact he/she is sitting at 159 with 10000. Good sign especially as 155 is almost taken out with two buys this morning.

So it's waiting for the take-off on June 17th. Or.........the crash. Or complete deflation.

[davebowler] 04/6/2009 11:27

Good news on asset backed securities;

[qwazi] 03/6/2009 17:37

zastas - idealing updated their systems a couple of months ago to enable DMA trading on a large number of stocks. I've also found that they are willing to enable it for any SETSmm or SETSqx stock where it has not already been enabled.

On a side note, SETSqx seems to be a complete waste of time (for those who haven't used it, it is essentially a quote driven system, but with a number of auctions during the day when you are allowed to enter orders on the order book). I have never been filled when I have put in orders in the auction on these stocks. Not sure why everything isn't put on SETSmm, can't see any advantages to SETSqx. Perhaps I'm missing something, anyone else had more success?

[zastas] 03/6/2009 17:16

Thanks gents.

I am fairly sure that I couldn't with my idealing in the past but next time logged-in I shall try again. Never knew that GNI allows physical purchase too; I thought only CFD , and futures etc ofcourse, and I've never found anything on their website to indicate it. Thanks again. Never too old to learn something new.

[qwazi] 03/6/2009 14:36

I can confirm that idealing offer DMA on QWIL.

[nickcduk] 03/6/2009 14:18

If your looking for DMA from a broker I believe that Idealing offer it. Not sure whether they go outside 250 stocks though. I use GNI for my CFD trading and can pick up QWIL via the order book as both a CFD trade or as a physical purchase of the stock. I prefer IG for the currency issues I outlined previously.

[zastas] 03/6/2009 13:43

Nickcduk,

I am sure you are right in that TMBS has been iceberging too but only with limited total daily amounts.In the past I could not get more than the number on offer from TMBS with my only reported LSE trade. Bar being forced into it by Brown's henchman Hector or by the grim reaper, I or my executioner donot intend to sell any until we approach NAV.

At this moment it's just WINS sitting with 3000 on the offer 152. Presumably TMBS was cleared out for today with those 146 multiple trades. Interestingly now three non-MM bidders ahead of the best MM. Including a bigish 21000 on 147, presumably the same buyer who bid 40000 at 136 yesterday. So much apparent support there. Nick, you used obviously a spreadbetter but is anyone able to report where QWIL true DMA bid placement is possible, or perhaps just with replica-DMA through the likes of IGmarkets?

Remains interesting and quite likely another step up tomorrow. Then with a good report,the journey to 2 Euro could go quickly. Remember, I am biased. So BB.

[nickcduk] 03/6/2009 12:50

Buying interest again today. Still don't think seller is done but seems as though they are playing hard to get so far. Nice to see some buying interest in the background. Just don't want them to chase the price up too much before results.

[nickcduk] 02/6/2009 17:58

There is a bot working an iceberg order. Assume its a stale bull who is looking to tidy up their portfolio and ditch some of their loss making positions. Thats why I didn't take too much from the order book as I had a feeling they were still around.

I got IG Index to do my bidding for me earlier. They worked the order and took stock off the order book. Ive used IG because I didn't want to take the currency risk on the trade and therefore asked them to quote me in £ per point rather than Euros.

The seller was still around following the last set of results. Was knocking out a huge amount of stock around 80c. Luckily I managed to get some at that level. Unfortunately it wasn't as much as I was after so am still looking to pick up at least another 40-50k shares.

Hoping next commentary will have better news on the arrears front. A lot of their Portuguese mortgages have a 6 month lag on Euribor. As Euribor spiked very sharply post Lehmans we should see some stress on the default rates. Those should have calmed down somewhat since as by the end of the quarter rates had halved. Fast forward another 3 months and they will have fallen from a peak of 5% to below 1%. Should help affordability no end.

[zastas] 02/6/2009 15:06

My TMBS is back with 'its' offer of 144, as usual between the MMs. But only with 5000. Who is he or she? Obviously wants to offload but remains very happy to do this stepwise patiently into a rising market. Is it the rump of the Lehman holding? Will he/she soon or ever be cleared out?

Bigish bid of 40.000, again non-MM, sitting at 136. Never seen that before.

[zastas] 02/6/2009 13:21

Nickcduk,

Just curious: did you buy them through an ordinary broker or through DMA and hitting the offer? I'm asking because my idealing DMA has never allowed me to place bids of QWIL on the orderbook, although clearly others, including today and my TMBS, can do so and intermingle with our quartet of MMs. As I said earlier, I have always had to buy them through a broker and bar one trade, all has been off LSE-exchange.

Good luck with your QWIL too. I just hope I will not have to feel quilty when the results come.

[zastas] 02/6/2009 13:14

Nickcduk,

We seem to have typed at the same time! At least we know who bought those 6000. Leaves The Mysterious Big Seller. And the other buyers of 32000.

[zastas] 02/6/2009 13:06

Goodness gracious me! Have I stirred something up? QWIL, after weeks asleep on this board and the LSE orderbook, suddenly on the move again. Seems The Big Seller was back with his offer of 1.38 and somebody soon bought 25.000 of him. Quickly followed by a couple of ATs at 3000 MM-size. Now 142-147.

Nice to see a paper profit way beyond what your work earns in a few weeks; that's what we all invest for. But only if it is justified by the underlying quality and value available. I think it is entirely (but I have ofcourse a considerable interest here). Even if only half of above's rosy scenario of 10 Euro cashflow comes off and even if the EURO falls to say 1.33 again.

But please, please DYOR, BB and ICGDAWAU.

[nickcduk] 02/6/2009 13:01

zastas

I think 64 cents free cash flow is a bit optimistic. Using the run rate from the last quarter it comes to around 50c or so. Would expect that to fall over coming quarters as defaults rise but not markedly.

A keen buyer entered the fray today and pushed the price up. That has sort of scuppered my plans to add aggressively to my position. I took 6k off the book at 1.45 just in case the price moves even further away from me. Results should be out in the next couple of weeks. I will have finger on the button ready to pick up any loose stock as long as numbers are in line.

[zastas] 01/6/2009 16:37

Funny that, the first day for weeks on end that the above-described seller has failed to materialise with his/her offer on LSE orderbook. Only the MMs then with the spread staying all day 132-140. Does he/she read this board? With all the shenanigans&games going on, you could even suspect it was I!

Nickcduk,

It's still difficult to be too optimistic and 32cent would be fine but QWIL generates enough cash for that 64cent. It was even 90cent in the good old days of 2007. But for the next 1-2 years it is allocated towards becoming debt-free. We shall see; they were ahead of agreed schedule.