Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[glenkaz] 11/3/2017 18:18

Undervalued now future exstreamly undervalued! I'm adding as much as I can! Gla!

[ua36] 11/3/2017 17:30

Wait a sec, you didn't have any idea what the 2017 ratio was earlier I thought?

Now you did, but thought it was 7.5x?

It's tricky to keep up. One could think you're only here to try and stir up trouble? Weird.

[ua36] 11/3/2017 16:38

It never ends Rogk.

2016 Final Results - released 9th March. On Premier's website. I quote:

"Amendment of Premier's financial covenants, currently anticipated to be net debt to EBITDA cover ratio test to 9.5x until end 2017 reducing to 5.0x at the end of 2018, before returning to 3.0x from the beginning of 2019.".

[marvin9] 11/3/2017 16:38

nope its 9.499999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

[glenkaz] 11/3/2017 15:23

Ee be idiot to ask! Lol! Marv!

[ohisay] 11/3/2017 14:51

Worth registering to read it all.

[marvin9] 11/3/2017 14:48

Whats EBITA ?

[ua36] 11/3/2017 14:25

Wait a second - you don't know what the ratio is but you know Premier will "surely" be in default. Tremendous! You really are a lazy tike :)

It's 9.5xEBITA to net debt. Surely the basic thing one would need to know when commenting on the topic... but there you go, it's the internet after all...

[ua36] 11/3/2017 14:18

So when you said "Premier will surely breach their new covenants at $50 oil" you meant they'll breach at $40. I see. I like your style.

Ok - at $40-$50 oil range, what's your calcs? Do you know what the 2017 covenant ratio test is?

[ua36] 11/3/2017 14:09

Have a look at the annual report presentations/webcasts. It's in there somewhere if you really want to find out :)

Can you show me your calcs for how Premier will "surely" be in default of the new covenant tests at the end of this year? At $50 oil.

Cheers.

[ua36] 11/3/2017 14:01

Rogk - you said this earlier today "Surely @ $50 oil PMO will be in default of the new covenant test at the end of this year?".

Could you expand as to how you calculated that?

[paulbiya] 11/3/2017 13:40

Rogk. Give it a rest

[glenkaz] 11/3/2017 12:33

Kinda jumped in without understanding Vwap so saw 65p cheap! Now AV 63.5 looking at derisk 90p if poss! Think share price is very low! Gla!

[ua36] 11/3/2017 12:12

Glenkaz - Maybe? Maybe not? Certainly nobody on here knows.

If it's trading you're doing then surely you have your entry and exit prices (up and down!) and just let it run?

If it's investing you're doing then surely you have concluded that the company was undervalued at the price you paid and are still of that opinion. Else, if you're no longer of that opinion then you would be selling?

The market will do what it will do, normally when you expect it the least. Pinning hopes on a share price raise after a certain date is barking up the wrong tree I think.

[ua36] 11/3/2017 12:03

Premier's oil curves are (if I remember correctly - feel free to check yourselves as they are on the website!) as per recent presentations/webcasts - (also need to consider the impact of the fall of sterling against the dollar since then given a very decent chunk of Premier's costs and some debt in sterling:

2017 - $50
2018 - $55
2019 - $60

Premier's cash breakeven costs (pre-capex) are around $25boe. 2017 post-capex, free c/flow with Brent above $50 (given £350million capex in 2017 and guided production of 27.4million boe), break even costs are around the $37 mark.

To reduce down to the "target" 3xEBITA to debt ratio will no doubt be a pincer, reduce debt and increase the EBITA. Catcher Opex at $20 per barrel, with 25k barrels net to Premier is obviously where the primary driver (for EBITA growth and debt repayment!) comes from.

Statoil, after all their cost reductions, see a long-term 25% IRR in projects at $70boe (as per their most recent 4Q results). 2016 was a loss for them, they produce more than 2% of daily world oil production.

BP, after all their costs reductions, have referred to $60boe as their requirement to maintain a sustainable future business. They produce more than 3% of daily world oil production.

Exxon missed their 2016 earnings targets by 40%.

I haven't look at more - maybe others could chip in?

The big producers (at least 5% of global production), despite slashing all their costs (down to stopping supplying fruit to staff) either aren't profitable or struggle to generate anything approaching acceptable ROE at 2016 levels.

KSA at 2016 prices still have a massive budget deficit (not to mention their upcoming Aramco IPO and the impact on that valuation in a falling oil price environment).

Venezuela? Basically in a period of economic collapse.

If the people that produce the oil that the market needs can't do so at the price that market is currently paying - what is the usual outcome is such an economic scenario?

Lower oil price for another period are of course possible - the markets move in mysterious ways. However I think more short-term volatility has been accounted for in the refinance given the generous EBITA ratios for 2017 (lowering down in 2018 and 2019) agreed by the RCF group.

[glenkaz] 11/3/2017 11:25

So do we think after 22nd we will gain lost ground back🤔

[ua36] 11/3/2017 11:09

The current price between now and 22nd would deliver the 62p VWAP. Not suggesting that it won't go lower but it certainly doesn't "need" to go lower to fulfil that.

[glenkaz] 11/3/2017 10:18

And if above 50 or 60 😋