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[gleach23] 10/10/2016 18:09

I was thinking just that earlier this afternoon ihatemms.

For H1 last year the average yen rate used was 189. This year H1 (ie 6 months ended 31 Oct) should be about 1.40 or a tad over - that's a 25% benefit yoy on almost a quarter of total revenue. As you suggest, if the current trend continues, who knows where it will get to during H2 and beyond as Japan revenue gains momentum.

Another point is that they specifically excluded any 'my number' profits from current year forecasts so any improvement in timescales would only be upside to the current year. From the article there seems to have been 5m applications this year to date.

[ihatemms] 10/10/2016 17:11

Smokey- you are right in your comments in post 6624.

In fact the short delay is very positive for phtm because of the extra-ordinary exchange rate movements we have had over the last few months. And it's only delay we' re talking about not loss of revenue. The numbers in H2 of this FY will be quite extra-ordinary esp when converted into gbp.

[sphere25] 10/10/2016 16:34

Smoky,

I didn't say anything was wrong here, just that the market is acting, and prone to continue to act, in an irrational manner with the selling.

And I'm taking full advantage of it!

[smokybenchod] 10/10/2016 16:27

Sphere, there's nothing new in that article that wasn't already mentioned as part of the results by PHTM - if anything I read the article as good news as it mentions next month for the government re-publicizing the my number system through the press (which you'd only do if it was actually working and the problems were resolved) which is actually earlier than March next year than we were told.

[sphere25] 10/10/2016 16:20

Already in the price - just wait for the panic washout.

Eeeza--->silly muppet

[smokybenchod] 10/10/2016 16:14

Sphere25 if you were so confident of the drop, why weren't you shorting it on the way down? I'm guessing it's because your perfect plan had more luck than judgement involved. I won't be buying at 160, but thanks for the offer.

[celeritas] 10/10/2016 16:13

Probably to do with my number in Japan, phtm made a deal of it.
Was expected to fly but has been plagued by problems, less than 12m have been submitted when around 30m were expected this year.

[sphere25] 10/10/2016 15:52

Going perfectly to plan. This is just the daft money leaving.

Now if the fund manglers exiting can keep selling on down to 135, maybe we can have abit of a panic washout further. Happy to take stock from the daft and pass a few back to you up at 160.

We'll call this one a live example of the sheer stupidity of the market and why folk like me regularly outperform.

[cumbrian2] 10/10/2016 15:39

Really surprised at this continued drop after my badly timed top ups! I hope this is the Schroeder's effect and not something more sinister which I can for the life of me see!

[napoleon 14th] 09/10/2016 22:49

Daft!
There must be some unusual imperative for Schroeders dumping their stake.
Still, a company with this sort of cash generation should incite another sort of
(private?) transaction, more efficient & better paid.
After all, can anyone say that PHTM would not be attractive to an income fund?
Let alone one where capital gains would not be unwelcome either?

It's all a bit odd to me.
Meanwhile share price has done virtually nothing in the last three years.....

[cumbrian2] 07/10/2016 16:44

Topped up another 12k ish shares today and now my second largest holding. Unless I am missing something (crash in UK / France booths sales?) there is too much good news to come in the next 6 months and they have already stated that the results will be in line (at least) despite the extra costs associated with the Asda deal, which itself should be EPS enhancing within the next 12 months. Provided the pound stays weak and the Japan ID cards are back in March it is hard to see how this will not be at least £2 by end of Q1 next year which would be a 33% capital growth plus still owning a high yielding stock - just cant see what's not to like. I know they have stated that they do not hedge, but surely at current rates it would be worth protecting this ''windfall'' at least for 2017?
Even if the Laundry sales are slow there are not high costs, so should not have a material negative effect. Not convinced by the car was business but again small outlay / effect on cash. Hoping for this overhang to clear before or at the same time as the results and we can return to a ''true'' market for the shares.

[rolo7] 07/10/2016 16:40

The 160p-162p level been big resistance for a while now, ex divi compounded that.

[sphere25] 07/10/2016 16:34

Looks like the strategy here was to pile in at 160, take the 6.1p dividend and then sell at 149, all whilst the fundamental picture significantly improves lol

Just more muppet fund manglers at work in the market. Waiting for more smart moves by Mr Market now, to take this down to early 140's.

My truck is parked and waiting, and seen as I'm a nice guy, you can have a few back up at 160 ;-)

[chillwill] 07/10/2016 14:47

Hard to play the dividend game; some stocks do overreact (I see selling at 160p has lost you a 6p dividend, but you could have bought 12p lower today). I've also held some that have basically not gone down for more than a few hours and effectively got a free dividend... city natural resources did this for me recently and that was about 3%, which was nice!

[gleach23] 07/10/2016 14:17

Yes eeza, if you have been reading the thread you will know that the speculation has been that it is Schroders.

What quantity they are looking to reduce by is another matter altogether.

[prokartace] 07/10/2016 14:08

The process of buying for the divi isnt about getting the divi, its about getting into the share before it starts rising towards the ex div date. The money is capital gain not income

[eeza] 07/10/2016 14:08

@gleach

The overhang is Schroders, and as of their last holdings RNS of 24 Aug they still had 63.681mill shares to dump.

[gleach23] 07/10/2016 13:36

Thanks again pnetol.

We can only speculate but my take is that either PI buying volume will pick up again ahead of the AGM to support the share price around the current level or it doesn't and the share price might be dropped to generate more demand to fill the Sell order.

Watching out for high volume or a Holdings RNS that might indicate clearance of this suspected overhang. As you say, a good update might be needed before it happens.

[pnetol] 07/10/2016 11:50

Gleach Peel Hunt are the first MM with 5,000 which is the NMS in this stock at 149. I suspect we will need a trading update to see demand for this stock rise, it would be very different it there wasn't such a large supply of stock, especially with the pound falling even further

[gleach23] 07/10/2016 11:05

In the absence of L2, thought I'd do some dummy trades - can't sell more than 1k online at the mo so not much demand and volume has dried up.

[gleach23] 07/10/2016 09:21

Yup - I did wonder what it was going to take to knock the yen rate below 1.30 and hey presto!

[sphere25] 07/10/2016 07:50

Prokartace,

I understand the strategy, but it can work against you at times - just depends on the demand and supply dynamics.

I'd have thought the demand would be strong and this would get bought up quick with the AGM close, but more importantly, the way the £ is getting absolutely annihilated!

Flash crash overnight!

[gleach23] 06/10/2016 17:52

Surely in theory it's a futile exercise just to buy for the divi prokartace? I can understand investors holding high yielding stocks in times of low interest rates but not buying and selling either side of the ex-div date.

IMO with the ex-div date incorporating a special dividend and an upcoming TU at the AGM it's been an opportune time for our seller to sell into some demand.

In the past I'd have topped up late in the day today but resisted in case we go into the mid 140s again. Just below 150 has seen good support in the last year though so I'll be very tempted if i can get some at 148ish.