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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan African Resources Plc | LSE:PAF | London | Ordinary Share | GB0004300496 | ORD 1P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 5.56% | 28.50 | 1,912,994 | 16:35:25 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.15 | 28.40 | 28.45 | 27.00 | 27.00 | |
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Ores | USD 321.61M | USD 60.74M | USD 0.0317 | 8.91 | 517.46M |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:49:11 | O | 14,048 | 28.50 | GBX |
| Date | Time | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/7/2024 | 12:04 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Registration of Capital Reduction and Effective.. |
| 12/7/2024 | 10:15 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
| 02/7/2024 | 15:45 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Director/PDMR Shareholding |
| 02/7/2024 | 15:45 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Director/PDMR Shareholding |
| 19/6/2024 | 13:30 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
| 10/6/2024 | 15:00 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Results of General Meeting |
| 06/6/2024 | 13:30 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
| 04/6/2024 | 11:39 | ALNC |  IN BRIEF: Pan African Resources inks five-year wage deal at Barberton |
| 04/6/2024 | 07:00 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Pan African Concludes Five-Year Wage Agreement.. |
| 24/5/2024 | 08:00 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Proposed Capital Reduction and Notice of.. |
Pan African Resources (PAF) Share Charts1 Year Pan African Resources Chart |
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1 Month Pan African Resources Chart |
Intraday Pan African Resources Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/7/2024 | 13:39 | Pan African Resources a sleeping giant | 1,788 |
| 13/5/2024 | 18:21 | Pan African Resources - Ripe for Takeover ? | 111 |
| 01/3/2024 | 11:28 | tuscan | - |
| 20/11/2023 | 16:21 | Pan African Minerals - Road to Takeover | 3 |
| 20/10/2023 | 10:09 | Pan African Resources for 2006 (PAF) Moderated | 13,138 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-26 15:49:13 | 28.50 | 14,048 | 4,003.68 | O |
| 2024-07-26 15:47:09 | 28.34 | 25,000 | 7,085.50 | O |
| 2024-07-26 15:35:36 | 28.50 | 1,222 | 348.27 | AT |
| 2024-07-26 15:35:36 | 28.50 | 9,372 | 2,671.02 | AT |
| 2024-07-26 15:35:25 | 28.50 | 524,728 | 149,547.48 | UT |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 26/7/2024 09:20 by Pan African Resources Daily Update Pan African Resources Plc is listed in the Gold Ores sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PAF. The last closing price for Pan African Resources was 27p.Pan African Resources currently has 1,916,503,988 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Pan African Resources is £541,412,377. Pan African Resources has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 8.91. This morning PAF shares opened at 27p |
Posted at 26/5/2024 07:53 by stonedyou Exceptionally Strong PBoC and Chinese Private Sector Buying Continues to Boost Gold Price.Jan Nieuwenhuijs Chinese private sector gold imports accounted for 543 tonnes in the first quarter, while the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 189 tonnes to its reserves over this time horizon. Most of the PBoC’s purchases are “unreported.&r In my latest article on global gold flows from March 2024, “China Has Taken Over Gold Price Control from the West,” I showed that in 2022 China broke the peg between the US dollar gold price and “real yields.” Instead of being price sensitive China had become a driving force of the gold price. The data at my disposal ran until December 2023 which made me hesitant to conclude the sharp increase in the gold price since late February was also caused by the Chinese. However, as new data has been released, I can confidently say that China initiated the current bull market. PBoC Gold Buying Increased by 38% in Q1 The media is aware that since 2022 central banks mostly buy gold covertly (often referred to as “unreported&rd In February 2023 I broke the story on unreported buying being mostly acquisitions by the PBoC. Two people familiar with the matter shared with me the Chinese central bank is responsible for “the majority” of secretive additions by monetary authorities. Emerging markets such as Saudi Arabia take up the rest. Based on field research, the WGC states central banks bought 290 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2024. Most of the difference—I use eighty percent—betwee Taking into account unreported purchases, the Chinese central bank now holds gold reserves weighing 5,542 tonnes, according to my research (my methodology is explained here). Exceptionally Strong Chinese Private Gold Demand in Q1 Chinese net gold imports by the private sector have been extremely strong. From January through March imports accounted for a mammoth 543 tonnes, up 74% from Q4 2023. This is definitely what pushed up the gold price. Import in April decreased somewhat to 125 tonnes. India imported a healthful 95 tonnes in February, but less than 30 tonnes both in January and March. The Indians remain price sensitive and are not driving this rally. Hong Kong saw notable net inflows in the past months, which mainly reflects strong demand in China in my view. Chinese housewives buy VAT free jewelry in Hong Kong and take it across the border to Shenzhen. In addition, bullion banks that export gold to China store gold in Hong Kong before re-exporting to the mainland. In Q1 the UK and Switzerland both were net exporters, and Western ETF inventories declined. At the time of writing the West has not yet joined the bull market, which primarily has its roots in China. Chinese Gold Demand Will Stay Powerful Bloomberg recently reported that Beijing offloaded a record of $53 billion in US Treasuries and agency bonds combined in Q1, which illustrates the PBoC is selling dollars for gold. No wonder, as enthusiasm to seize Russia’s foreign exchange reserves—depos Private gold demand in China is likely to uphold as well as the end of the property slump is not in sight. Home prices have declined in 30 out of the last 33 months. The State Council is floating a plan to buy unsold houses through local governments, but these are already drowning in debt. The Chinese public, which doesn’t have many investment options due to capital controls, will continue to invest in gold and support the price. I’m expecting the West to join the bull market soon. ETF outflows appear to have stopped, and it would only be logical for Western investors to rotate into gold at some point because of high asset valuations and an overconfidence in credit instruments. |
Posted at 19/5/2024 08:18 by stonedyou Gold prices in Dubai Today Sunday, May 19, 2024.ALBAWABA – Gold prices in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) today, Sunday, May 19, opened at a selling price of AED 8,862.46 per ounce, according to UAEgoldprices.com. 24-karat gold rates in UAE Today The price per gram of 24-karat gold in UAE stood at AED 284.94 today. 22-karat gold prices in Dubai Today The price per gram of 22-karat gold in UAE stood at AED 261.19 early today, May 19. 21-karat gold rates in Dubai Today The price per gram of 21-karat gold in UAE stood at AED 249.32 at the start of business today. 18-karat gold prices in UAE Today The price per gram of 18-karat gold in UAE opened at AED 213.70 today. 14-karat gold rates in the Emirates Today The price per gram of 14-karat gold in UAE stood at AED 166.21 early today. International gold rates Today Globally, the price per ounce of gold opened at AED 8,862.46 ($2,414.84) early today as reported by Goldprice.org, noting that gold in the UAE is subject to a 5% value-added tax (VAT). |
Posted at 15/5/2024 10:39 by stonedyou Gold rush continues unabated in 2024.The price and demand for gold have reached record highs over the past two years and show no sign of faltering in 2024. Central banks added 39 tonnes of gold to global reserves in January. We analyse the main macroeconomic factors affecting stock markets and their implications for investment assets such as gold. Although gold demand during 2023 fell slightly short of the annual record achieved in 2022, the latest report published by the World Gold Council (WGC) confirms that it was another year of massive gold purchases by central banks. Annual gold demand (excluding OTC) of 4,448 tonnes was only 5% lower than the previous year. Including OTC flows, it stands at 4,899 tonnes, the highest recorded since 2010. While annual net purchases of 1,037 tonnes almost matched the 2022 record, falling just 45 tonnes short. Despite some fluctuations during the year, the price of gold rose 15% in 2023 to an all-time high of $2,135.40 per troy ounce on 4 December. The US banking crisis, geopolitical tensions, war conflicts and the US Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining interest rates were among the main factors contributing to gold’s continued safe-haven status for investors. Thus, yet another year confirms that the gold market continues to receive support from central banks of countries that want to diversify their reserves to shield their economies, which suggests that gold prices could continue to rise significantly throughout this year. Central banks start the new year adding more gold to their reserves According to IMF data, central banks’ global gold reserves increased by 39 tonnes in January this year. This is more than double December’s net purchases and the eighth consecutive month of net purchases. Turkey’s central bank was the main buyer, adding 12 tonnes of gold to its reserves for a cumulative total of 552 tonnes. It was followed by the People’s Bank of China, which continued to accumulate the golden metal at a steady pace, increasing its reserves by 10 tonnes, the 15th consecutive month of gold purchases by the Chinese central bank. Meanwhile, on Tuesday 5 March, the price of gold reached a new all-time high of $2,140.6 per troy ounce, surpassing the record set at the end of last year. Well into 2024, economic and geopolitical uncertainty persists. Inflation has fallen, but the world faces similar challenges to those of recent years. The WGC notes that the rebound in gold purchases in January supports its forecast that “2024 will be another solid year for central bank demand for gold”, and warns that “the world looks no less uncertain”, so “the reasons to own gold are as relevant as ever”. The impact of the current macroeconomic environment on the gold market With the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to cut rates from June, and given that monetary and fiscal policy is one of the main drivers of precious metals prices, elections in the US and elsewhere may directly impact gold prices. Let’s not forget that gold prices experienced a major rally in 2020, increasing in value by nearly 25% just before the US presidential election. Likewise, when Barack Obama left office in 2017, the gold price was 40% higher than when he took office in 2009. In a recently released WGC podcast discussing the current macroeconomic environment, Karim Chedid, Head of EMEA Investment Strategy at iShares and Managing Director at BlackRock, notes that “in the context of the election calendar, historically, a traditional safe-haven asset such as gold tends to perform well and is likely to be in demand this year”. As for the outlook for global economic growth, after a year marked by contraction or stagnation of some economies, with the European Union narrowly escaping recession, and a slow but stronger-than-expect Key factors of portfolio performance BlackRock has introduced a framework it calls “asset allocation drivers”, which go beyond macroeconomic factors but will continue to play a key role in the economy over the long term. These are energy transition, artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, the future of finance and demographic ageing. “Each of these major forces influences growth, influences inflation and therefore influences interest rates and asset allocation,” says the BlackRock executive. That said, Chedid reminds us that during 2023, “central bank gold purchases were a more important driver of growth than money flows”. The correlation between stock and bond returns has been positive for much of history but is periodically negative and, as Chedid points out, “unreliable To discover the best option to protect your savings, enter Preciosos 11Onze. We will help you buy the safe-haven asset par excellence, physical gold, at the best price. |
Posted at 14/5/2024 20:44 by stonedyou Jim Rickards: Why gold at $27,000 isn't such a crazy prospectSubmitted by admin on Tue, 2024-05-14 10:29 Section: Daily Dispatches By James G. Rickards Daily Reckoning, Baltimore Tuesday, May 14, 2024 I've said that gold could reach $15,000 by 2026. Today I'm updating that forecast. My latest forecast is that gold may actually exceed $27,000. I don't say that to get attention or to shock people. It's not a guess; it's the result of rigorous analysis. ... Dispatch continues below ... $27,000 Gold I’ve previously said that gold could reach $15,000 by 2026. Today, I’m updating that forecast. My latest forecast is that gold may actually exceed $27,000. I don’t say that to get attention or to shock people. It’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis. Of course, there’s no guarantee it’ll happen. But this forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts. Here’s how I reached that price level forecast… This analysis begins with a simple question: What’s the implied non-deflationary price of gold under a new gold standard? No central banker in the world wants a gold standard. Why would they? Right now, they control the machinery of global currencies (also called fiat money). They have no interest in a form of money they can’t control. It took about 60 years from 1914–1974 to drive gold out of the monetary system. No central banker wants to let it back in. Still, what if they have no choice? What if confidence in command currencies collapses due to some combination of excessive money creation, competition from Bitcoin, extreme levels of dollar debt, a new financial crisis, war or natural disaster? In that case, central bankers may return to gold not because they want to, but because they must in order to restore order to the global monetary system. What’s the Proper Gold Price? That scenario begs the question: What is the new dollar price of gold in a system in which dollars are freely exchangeable for gold at a fixed price? If the dollar price is too high, investors will sell gold for dollars and spend freely. Central banks will have to increase the money supply to maintain equilibrium. That’s an inflationary result. If the dollar price is too low, investors will line up to redeem dollars for gold and then hoard the gold. Central banks will have to reduce the money supply to maintain equilibrium. That reduces velocity and is deflationary. Something like the latter case happened in the U.K. in 1925 when it returned to a gold standard at an unrealistically low price. The result was that the U.K. entered the Great Depression several years ahead of other developed economies. Something like the former case happened in the U.S. in 1933, when FDR devalued the dollar against gold. Citizens weren’t allowed to own gold, so there was no mass redemption of gold. But other commodity prices rose sharply. That was the point of the devaluation. Resulting inflation helped lift the U.S. out of deflation and gave the economy a boost from 1933–1936 in the midst of the Great Depression. (The Fed caused another severe recession in 1937–1938 with their customary incompetence.) The policy goal obviously is to get the price “just right” by maintaining the proper equilibrium between gold and dollars. The U.S. is in an ideal position to do this by selling gold from U.S. Treasury reserves, about 8,100 metric tonnes (261.5 million troy ounces), or buying gold in the open market using freshly printed Fed money. The goal would be to maintain the dollar price of gold in a narrow range around the fixed price. What price is just right? This question is easy to answer, subject to a few assumptions. $27,533 Gold U.S. M1 money supply is $17.9 trillion. (I use M1, which is a good proxy for everyday money). What is M1? This is the supply that is the most liquid and money that is the easiest to turn into cash. It contains actual cash (bills and coins), bank reserves (what’s actually kept in the vaults) and demand deposits (money in your checking account that can be turned into cash easily). One needs to make an assumption about the percentage of gold backing for the money supply needed to maintain confidence. I assume 40% coverage with gold. (This was the legal requirement for the Fed from 1913–1946. Later it was 25%, then zero today). Applying the 40% ratio to the $17.9 trillion money supply means that $7.2 trillion of gold is required. Applying the $7.2 trillion valuation to 261.5 million troy ounces yields a gold price of $27,533 per ounce. That’s the implied non-deflationary equilibrium price of gold in a new global gold standard. Of course, money supplies fluctuate; lately they’ve been going up sharply, especially in the U.S. There’s room for debate about whether a 40% backing ratio is too high or too low. Still, my assumptions are moderate based on monetary economics and history. A dollar price of gold of over $25,000 per ounce in a new gold standard is not a stretch. Obviously, you get around $12,500 per ounce if you assume 20% coverage. There are many variables in play. The Fundamental Model This model is also straightforward. It relies on factors we learned about in our first week of Intro to Economics — supply and demand. The most significant development on the supply side is the decrease of new mining output. As the chart shows below, mine production of gold in the U.S. has been decreasing steadily since 2017. These figures reveal a 28% decrease over seven years, at the same time gold prices were rising and miners were motivated to expand output. That’s not to argue that the world has reached “peak gold,” (output could expand in future for a variety of reasons). Still, my contacts in the mining community consistently report that gold is becoming more difficult to source and the quality of newly discovered ore is low-to-medium at best. Flat output, all things equal, tends to put a floor under prices and to support higher prices based on other factors. The Demand Side The demand side is driven largely by central banks, ETFs, hedge funds and individual purchases. Traditional institutional investors are not large investors in gold. Much of the demand from hedge funds is conducted in derivatives such as gold futures. Derivatives generally don’t involve physical delivery of gold. They involve “paper gold” that far exceeds the actual, physical gold supply. It’s this paper gold market that accounts for volatility in the gold market, not gold itself. Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold has surged from less than 100 metric tonnes in 2010 to 1,100 metric tonnes in 2022, a 1,000% increase in 12 years. Central bank gold demand remained strong in 2023 with 800 metric tonnes acquired through Sept. 30. That puts central bank gold demand on track for a new record. There’s no sign of that demand slowing in 2024. Overall, the picture is one of flat supply and increasing demand, mostly in the form of official purchases by central banks. A Math Lesson Finally, a bit of elementary math is helpful in understanding how the dollar price of gold can move past $25,000 per ounce in the next two years. For this purpose, we’ll assume a baseline price of $2,000 per ounce (although gold has been in the $2,300 range lately with no signs of falling back to the $2,000 level). But for our purposes, we’ll keep it simple. A move from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce is a heavy lift. That’s a 50% increase and could easily take a year or more. Beyond that, a further increase from $3,000 to $4,000 is a 33% increase: another large rally. A further gain from $4,000 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce is a further gain of 25%. But notice the pattern. Each gain is $1,000 per ounce, but the percentage increase drops from 50% to 33% to 25%. That’s because the starting point is higher while the $1,000 gain is constant. Each $1,000 jump represents a smaller (and easier) percentage gain than the one before. This pattern continues. Moving from $9,000 per ounce to $10,000 per ounce is only an 11% gain. Moving from $14,000 per ounce to $15,000 per ounce is only a 7% gain. Gold can move 1% in a single trading day, sometimes 2% or more. As an extreme example, a move from $99,000 per ounce to $100,000 per ounce is about a 1% move. Those $1,000 pops get even easier as we approach my calculated gold price of $27,533. The lesson for you as an investor is to buy gold now. As prices continue to rally, you’ll get more gold for your money at the outset and high-percentage returns as gold rallies from a lower base. Toward the end of the long march past $25,000 per ounce, you’ll have bigger dollar gains because you started with more gold. Others will jump on the bandwagon, but you’ll already have a comfortable seat. |
Posted at 09/5/2024 12:09 by stonedyou Pan African Resources Plc - Revised Production Guidance for the year ending 30 June 2024, Production Guidance for 2025 Financial Year and MTR Project Update09/05/2024 7:00am UK Regulatory Pan African Resources (LSE:PAF) Intraday Stock Chart Thursday 9 May 2024 Click Here for more Pan African Resources Charts. Pan African Resources Plc - Revised Production Guidance for the year ending 30 June 2024, Production Guidance for 2025 Financial Year and MTR Project Update PR Newswire LONDON, United Kingdom, May 09 Pan African Resources PLC (Incorporated and registered in England and Wales under the Companies Act 1985 with registered number 3937466 on 25 February 2000) Share code on AIM: PAF Share code on JSE: PAN ISIN: GB0004300496 ADR ticker code: PAFRY ("Pan African" or the "Company" or the "Group") Pan African Resources Funding Company Limited Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa with limited liability Registration number: 2012/021237/06 Alpha code: PARI Pan African is pleased to provide shareholders and noteholders with an update as follows: Group production and cost guidance Production guidance for the year ending 30 June 2024 (current financial year) narrowed to between 186,000oz to 190,000oz (previously 180,000oz to 190,000oz) In the second half of the financial year, the Group ceased processing of marginal surface sources at Evander Gold Mines (EGM) due to this business, which contributed approximately 2,500oz in the first half of the current financial year, becoming uneconomical If production from these sources was maintained in the second half of the financial year, Group production for the full financial year would have been in excess of 190,000oz Group AISC guidance for the current financial year maintained at between $1,325/oz to $1,350/oz (assumed exchange rate: ZAR/US$:18.50) Production guidance for the 2025 financial year of 215,000oz to 225,000oz. MTR Project (The Project) The Project is on schedule for commissioning and steady state production during December 2024 Capital cost for the Project remains on budget, with no expenditure overruns expected The Project's financial model, based on its definitive feasibility study (DFS), was updated to include the latest operating cost and production estimates, forecast ZAR/US$ exchange rate and US$ gold price. These updates are as follows: Exchange rate and gold price revisions: Exchange rate of ZAR/US$:19.00 (initial DFS model: ZAR/US$:15.50) Gold price of US$2,200/oz (initial DFS model: US$1,750/oz) The updated DFS financial model outputs (relative to the initial DFS model) are as follows: The model Pre-tax NPV increased to US$183 million (initial DFS model: NPV of US$63 million) The ungeared real IRR increased to 41.7% (initial DFS model: IRR of 20.1%) Payback on upfront capital investment of ~US$135.1 million reduced to approximately 2 years (initial DFS model: 3.5 years), post commissioning. An internal pre-feasibility study (PFS) for the Soweto cluster was also completed in March 2024, based on the drill results from the 2L16 and 2L24 tailings storage facility (TSF). The PFS considered numerous options, with the most feasible being: Development of re-mining, overland piping and pumping infrastructure at the Soweto cluster resource to process the material at the MTR plant Using this option, the MTR plant's capacity can be expanded to process 1 million tonnes per month of feed material, compared to the current design capacity of 800ktpm, resulting in a life-of-mine (LOM) of 21 years for the combined Mogale and Soweto cluster resources. The resultant tailings can be deposited into the expanded Mogale TSF at the West Wits pit and 1L23-25 footprint. The outcomes of the PFS are as follows: Processing of the Soweto Cluster has the potential to expand the MTR operation The MTR plant infrastructure can be expanded to treat 1 million tonnes per month from year 6 of the MTR operation's LOM The addition of the 110 million tonne Soweto Cluster Mineral Resource has the potential to increase MTR production to approximately 60koz/year over a 21-year LOM Total additional capital requirement of US$113 million (approximately US$83 million would be incurred from year 4 to year 6 and US$29 million in year 10 of the MTR's operation) At US$2,200/oz and an exchange rate of ZAR/US$:19.00, the Pre-tax NPV combined for Mogale and the Soweto Cluster is US$283 million, representing an increase of US$96 million, relative to Mogale's updated standalone financial model The real ungeared IRR increases to 44.0%, relative to the IRR of 41.7% in the updated Mogale financial model. The Group will now proceed with the necessary permitting and servitudes required for the re-mining and processing of the Soweto Cluster, with a final investment decision in due course. Pan African CEO Cobus Loots commented: "We are pleased that Pan African will achieve the upper end of our full year production guidance, and would have exceeded guidance had we continued with the processing of surface material at Evander in the second half of the financial year. The robust production results, combined with record Rand gold prices, should see the Group deliver an excellent financial performance for the year. Our MTR project remains on schedule and on budget, and we look forward to commissioning it later in 2024. We have now demonstrated that the addition of the Soweto Cluster resources further improves the economic attractiveness of this world class project." Final results for the twelve months ended 30 June 2024 Pan African will announce its final results for the current financial year on 11 September 2024. The information contained in this update is the responsibility of the Pan African board of directors and has not been reviewed or reported on by the Group's external auditors. Certain information communicated in this announcement was, prior to its publication, inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of Regulation 596/2014. Rosebank 9 May 2024 |
Posted at 02/4/2024 10:42 by stonedyou Western Investors Bank Record Profits on GoldTuesday, 4/02/2024 09:30 "With the People's Bank of China seemingly happy to buy gold at any price." WESTERN INVESTORS just banked record profits from gold, selling more than twice the quantity that they bought as a group in March using world-leading marketplace BullionVault, as speculative betting by hedge funds, plus China's relentless central-bank demand, drove the price of gold up to new record highs in all major currencies. But record-heavy selling by a record number of customers still left client holdings at BullionVault worth fresh record high above $3.2 billion (£2.5bn, €3.0bn). "Previous peaks in the number of people selling gold also came as bullion prices jumped," says BullionVault director of research Adrian Ash. "But they all coincided with moments of acute political or financial stress, spurring stronger investor demand. "In contrast, gold's new all-time highs have come without any external trigger. That speaks to the underlying strength of this uptrend, with relentless demand for physical bullion from emerging-market nations led by China more than offsetting the record-heavy profit taking by Western investors." The price of gold jumped by 8.1% last month – its fastest gain in a year – to finish at a new record of $2214 per Troy ounce (+8.5% to £1752, +8.7% to €2050) after setting a fresh all-time high on 9 of the global wholesale market's 20 trading days across March. In response, the number of private investors buying gold on BullionVault – almost 9-in-10 of whose users live in Western Europe or North America – slipped 3.4% to the fewest since December. The number of sellers in contrast rose 95.1% to beat the number of sellers in March 2023 (the 'mini crisis' in US regional banking), August 2011 (US debt downgrade, Euro debt crisis, English riots), March 2022 (Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine) and June 2016 (the UK's Brexit referendum shock). Together, that took the Gold Investor Index – a unique measure of trading decisions among the world's largest single pool of private investors in physical bullion – down to a new series low of 47.5, down 4.0 points from February with its steepest drop since July 2016. Tracking gold investor actions since October 2009, the index would read 50.0 if the number of buyers exactly equalled the number of sellers across the month. It reached 65.9 as the Covid Crisis took hold in March 2020, and it set a series high of 71.7 when gold prices hit their global-financial-cri The Gold Investor Index has recorded more gold sellers than buyers only twice before (48.8 in Feb 2010, 49.1 in June 2019). By weight, total demand to buy gold on BullionVault – now open 24/7 since April 2005 – rose 4.5% in March from the previous 12-month average to reach 0.7 tonnes. But selling more than doubled, rising 100.3% to total more than 1.6 tonnes. Net-net, that saw private investors liquidate 992 kilograms of gold – 28.0% more than the previous record outflow of June 2019 – worth a record $68.8 million (£54.1m, €63.3m). That took investor gold holdings at BullionVault down to 45.5 tonnes, the smallest since 2020 and down by 5.5% from the record high holdings of last August. By value, however, those investor holdings have risen 7.7% in Dollar terms over the past 7 months to finish March at a record $3.2 billion (+8.1% in GBP to £2.5bn, +8.3% in Euros to €3.0bn). "With central banks led by China paying record-high prices for gold, Western investors are increasingly happy to sell, taking profit at the highest prices in history. But this is rebalancing, not a rush for the exits, because their remaining holdings have also risen in value to new record highs, and gold's appeal as a form of investment insurance is undimmed, ready for whatever political or financial crises 2024's highly uncertain outlook could bring." Like gold, silver jumped in price last month, rising 9.8% to its highest monthly close in four at $24.54 per Troy ounce (+10.2% to £19.46, +10.3% to 22.76). That saw the number of silver sellers on BullionVault double in March from the month before, up 108.7% to the most since February 2021, when the #silversqueeze ramp on social media sent silver prices towards an 8-year high 1 cent shy of $30. Back then, the number of silver buyers across the month was 4.7 times larger than March 2024, putting the Silver Investor Index at 61.0, its 8th highest reading since the series began at New Year 2012. But last month the index sank to a new all-time low, down 5.1 points to 45.0 and signalling more sellers than buyers for the 4th time in the past 12 months. By weight, silver selling outran buying by a record 29.8 tonnes, taking the total stock of silver bullion still held down 2.4% to 1,199.8 tonnes, the lowest since April 2021 and 5.3% smaller from the record high of October 2022. By value, in contrast, BullionVault users' silver holdings have grown by 11.8% to $878 million (+11.0% in GBP to £750m, +11.8% in Euros to €878m). "Gold's sudden jump to new all-time highs leaves the price looking stretched short term," says Ash, "and the market may struggle to absorb the huge quantity of bullion coming back from Western investors, especially as Asia's big consumer nations head towards the seasonal summer lull in household demand. "While Asia's big gold buying markets can be very price-sensitive short term, consumers have repeatedly grown accustomed to higher gold prices over time. Short of peace and trust breaking out between the West and 'the rest', demand from emerging-market central banks looks set to continue, with the People's Bank of China seemingly happy to buy gold at any price." |
Posted at 27/11/2023 15:53 by stonedyou Will gold prices increase in 2024? Here's what the experts think.Gold investing has garnered a lot of attention in the last year or so. Gold prices soared, hitting their highest point in over a year, and discount retailer Costco even started selling gold bars online. It's no wonder either: Gold has long been known as a smart hedge against inflation — and with inflation well above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal, many consumers have sought out its protection. Gold is also a portfolio diversifier and, generally speaking, a good store of value in the long run. Despite all this, though, gold prices do fluctuate in the short term. In September, for example, the average price dipped below $1,850 per ounce. By the end of November, prices jumped over $2,000. Will prices top that in 2024? Here's what experts have to say. So, where are gold prices headed next year? Here's where the experts think gold prices will land in 2024. The economy will call for some safe bets One of the big reasons gold has become popular lately — and pricier — is stubborn inflation. And while the Fed has hiked interest rates many times to help quell it, the central bank is still far from its 2% goal. And according to a forecast from WisdomTree Investments, it will stay that way for a while. WisdomTree's forecast currently projects a 3.1% inflation rate at the start of 2024 and a 2.60% rate by the third quarter. This persistently high inflation could push up demand for gold and, subsequently, gold prices. "When inflation rates rise, gold prices often increase as well," says Liam Hunt, a financial writer and analyst for Gold IRA Guide. "If current trends of economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures continue, there could be upward pressure on gold prices. In 1980, gold prices reached a then-record $800 per ounce following years of generationally-high inflation over the preceding decade." Forecasts aren't always right, though. And while WisdomTree currently predicts gold prices to hit a new all-time high next year, if economic conditions worsen, demand for gold could rise considerably, sending prices up even more. As Nitesh Shah, head of commodities and macroeconomic research at WisdomTree, explains, "In other scenarios of the world where economic conditions deteriorate faster and there is greater demand for defensive assets, we could see gold prices rising even further." Explore how gold investing could benefit you here. Gold IRAs help you protect your financial assets with stability If you’re searching for a hedge against inflation, start buying gold coins, bars, and/or bullions. It’s as simple as clicking on your state now. Geopolitical tensions and the election could drive up demand for gold Inflation is an important factor to watch next year if you're tracking gold prices. Geopolitics are another. "Periodically, geopolitical risks, and a flight to safety drive up the demand for gold," Shah says. "Recently, the Israel-Hamas conflict has driven up the geopolitical premium in gold." He's right: After the conflict between Israel and Gaza began in early October, gold prices soared, reaching points not seen since mid-2022. "Fears that an uncontained, regional war could disrupt global markets and supply chains triggered capital flight into gold and away from speculative assets such as high-risk stocks," Hunt says. "Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset. In times of economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors tend to turn to gold, putting upward price pressure on the yellow metal." Another time investors might flock to a safe-haven investment like gold? That'd be during a presidential election, when some might view a change in leadership as a risk to their finances. "Given the U.S. presidential election in 2024, we expect retail demand for gold to remain high as investors turn to the metal to hedge against what they feel is a risk of an adverse outcome," Shah says. Gold prices will increase Given economic conditions and political tensions, most experts agree that gold prices are going to rise in 2024, as more and more consumers seek out a safe spot to store their wealth. "Gold is the best hedge there is and every portfolio," says Collin Plume, founder of Noble Gold Investments. "We have an average of an economic downturn every 5.5 years. Each time a downturn happens, you need that one asset that will keep you buoyant while you wait for the rest of your portfolio to recover." According to WisdomTree's forecast, gold prices will climb throughout 2024, eventually reaching $2,090 per ounce by the third quarter. In its "bull" forecast, the firm projects prices could get as high as $2,300 per ounce. |
Posted at 13/11/2023 17:23 by justiceforthemany If you're a shareholder here and want the share price to rise then email Investor Relations because the share price consistently closes at a lower price than the JSE in SA. There is blatant manipulation going on here keeping the share price suppressed.Why is PAF trading at just 3-4x P/E? hhira@paf.co.za |
Posted at 20/9/2023 12:37 by justiceforthemany EDISON RESEARCHValuation: Cheap by any measure Despite making a number of adjustments to our model to reflect updated circumstances, as well as guidance, our core (absolute) valuation of the company remains almost unchanged at 34.59c (cf 34.24c previously), based on projects either sanctioned or already in production. However, this valuation rises by a further 18.59–23.61c if other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised HEPS ratio of 8.4x in the period FY10–23 is applied to our FY24 and FY25 forecasts, it implies a share price of 36.29p in FY24, followed by one of 38.22p in FY25. As such, PAF’s current share price of 14.28p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS falling to 2.12c per share (cf 5.40c/share and 5.69c/share for FY24 and FY25 forecast, respectively). In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its principal London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on at least 94% of commonly used valuation measures if Edison’s forecasts are used and 86% of the same measures if consensus forecasts are used, which collectively imply a share price of 27.24p on the basis of our year one EPS and 35.17p based on our year two EPS. Finally, we estimate that PAF has the sixth highest dividend yield of any precious metals mining company, globally (cf the 10th highest previously). In the meantime, its enterprise value equates to just US$9.41 per resource ounce of gold. |
Posted at 14/6/2023 16:23 by justiceforthemany Valuation: Still closer to 30p than 20pNotwithstanding our earnings forecast reduction, PAF remains cheap relative to both its historical trading record and its peers. Our core (absolute) valuation of the company has risen by 4.8% to 34.17c (cf 32.59c previously), based on projects either sanctioned or already in production, with all of the increase effectively attributable to the recent decline in the value of the rand against the US dollar. Moreover, this valuation rises by a further 17.06–22.08c (16.09–21.11c preciously) once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised HEPS ratio of 8.6x in the period FY10–22 is applied to our FY23 and FY24 forecasts, it implies a share price of 26.56p in FY23 (cf 29.53p previously), followed by one of 32.74p in FY24. As such, PAF’s current share price of 13.50p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS falling to 1.94c per share in FY23. In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its principal London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on at least 83% of commonly used valuation measures, which collectively imply a share price of 35.06p in FY23 and one of 35.09p in FY24. Finally, we estimate that PAF still has the 13th highest dividend yield of any precious metals mining company, globally. |
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