Pace Plc Share Discussion Threads

[terminated] 29/7/2016 22:03

Pace has made it possible for me to semi-retire and it's going to be hard letting go after such a long time. I remember buying in at about 20-30p and investing about 12k (a lot of money to me at the time), that must have been over 12 years ago. Even when they tanked just before MP took over I still topped up with everything I had on the back of the excellent researchers/posters on this board (if I could I'd buy you all a drink). I chewed a few finger nails that year I'll tell you. It has been one hell of a roller-coaster ride but I am determined to reduce this down to 30% of my portfolio over the next few months. My one lasting lesson from the Pace experienced is that a profit is not a profit unless it is banked.

GL all.

[1gw] 29/7/2016 21:59

beaubleep - good to get the perspective of what others view as "overweight". I guess your view of what an overweight position is depends in part on how much time you devote to managing the portfolio, how significant a part of you and your family's future lives you see being funded by it and what other sources of income you have.

[beaubleep] 29/7/2016 21:14

1gw

After my 2 recent sales I've managed to get Arris down to about 70% of my portfolio. This is possibly a little overweight but considering Pace at times was between 90 and 100% of my portfolio this is definitely an improvement for me. I think it's what is known as an addictive personality disorder

I may look again at selling some more when it hits $30

[1gw] 29/7/2016 20:55

I have just offloaded another biggish chunk with HL, when the market price was $27.26, but after the 2% stamp duty, forex markup and commission getting £20.11. This was most of the chunk I bought on 16th Feb, just before the results, hoping for a spike on 4Q results (instead of the plunge which actually happened). I've closed it out with a 20% gain so that will do me.

That means I have now sold nearly all of the Arris shares I bought this year, but still have all the shares arising from my Pace holding at the end of last year. It takes Arris down to about 15% of my portfolio, still my biggest holding by far but considerably less overweight than a couple of days ago.

[terminated] 29/7/2016 16:36

I was looking to offload a few more today but not below $27.

[1carus] 29/7/2016 15:45

Traded a fair few from my Halifax account yesterday. Other than an exchange rate, that seemed fair, there was no unusual added fees or stamp duty. TBH I did not thoroughly analyse it but it seemed fairly straight forward. Anybody else sold any via the Halifax sharedealing website? By default I can only sell there unless I fill out some additional forms, that's ok for me as I intend to eventually get out of Pace after building and holding for almost a decade.
Welcome selling opportunity yesterday after being somewhat closed out since the merger and the debacle of receiving the shares in February. I hope we can all at last get a fair return for our patience with this share.

[terminated] 29/7/2016 13:37

beaubleep - Yea they come across as Numptys. I pointed out the price discrepancy the other day and the fact that commission charges are not displayed and calculated on screen so you can never get a firm price. Her reply? Log on tomorrow it might work then lol. I started trying to explain that the issue was that these features need to be added by a programmer but then I slapped myself in the face and just asked to be put through to a broker who could give me a firm price. When I asked him why their system does not display accurate information he tried to tell me it's the same for all brokers dealing in foreign stocks. When I said you can get a firm price on TD Waterhouse he laughed and said it was news to him. It is scary when I think how much money people must have deposited with them.

[andyble] 29/7/2016 12:08

As time moves on and they continue to hit those numbers the perceived issue of the future of stbs will subside and the story will become the important one of earnings per share and increasing revenues and especially earnings growth. The numbers will do the talking. I do not see Arris being on such a low forward p/e in christmases to come.

[1gw] 29/7/2016 11:13

Analyst estimates on Arris IR site.

Looks like most of the post-results updates are now in with the site showing 6 out of 7 increases for 2016 and 5 out of 7 increases for 2017 (no decreases for either year).

Compared to the numbers there before the results on 27th, the median estimates (for adjusted net income per diluted share) have increased as follows:

2016 from $2.60 to $2.80
2017 from $3.09 to $3.20

Curiously the median estimate for 2018 has gone down, from $3.57 to $3.41 but as I interpret the data that's a result of getting a new (and relatively low) estimate in. Before the results there were only 2 estimates for 2018: $3.41 and $3.73. Now there are 3 estimates: $3.28, $3.41 and $3.74. So it looks to me like the previous high estimate ($3.73) was increased marginally to $3.74 and a new estimate came in at $3.28.

[1gw] 29/7/2016 10:54

Thanks for posting those links andyble. Looks like the trade press has really picked up the positive side of the story. Amazing how Arris manage such exciting content with such dull delivery at times.

Interesting to see how the trading goes over the next few days. Some of that 7m share short position (as of mid-July) must be feeling a bit exposed I would have thought - although those with real conviction may just see the spike as a chance to increase their short positions.

One thing I haven't seen picked up is the throwaway comment on the FCC proposals. Perhaps it is common knowledge, but I thought it might have been worth a mention. This from the Seeking Alpha transcript:

"As an aside, it looks as if a more reasonable approach is being considered by the FCC with respect to the original unlock the box proposal. And while the headlines remain challenging at times, it seems that an apps (19:19) based framework is gaining traction and as we previously discussed, is aligned with our thinking around the evolution of CPE within the home and the required investment in the network."

[sikhthetech] 28/7/2016 16:18

terminated, good question...
probably one for the fund manager you're giving instructions to move from...

it's worth finding out what the cut-off day is...

[terminated] 28/7/2016 16:15

sikh: So can you continue trading whilst the transfer is going through?

Beau: Thx I'll use that method in future.

This should maintain $28, all those sells seem to have been absorbed robustly. We of course have the benefit of the exchange rate.

[sikhthetech] 28/7/2016 16:08

Terminated, I transferred all my ISAs/SIPPs a few years back... It takes anything from a few days to couple of weeks, depending on the provider you're leaving...
Watch out for exit fees..

[1gw] 28/7/2016 15:55

I know from past experience with Pace/Arris how difficult it is to spot when these spikes are about to reverse (and I also know that usually they do reverse fairly suddenly and significantly). Someone who's better at reading the runes can you please ring the bell when we get to the top?!

[beaubleep] 28/7/2016 15:53

Sorry Terminated looks like our posts crossed.
I'd say definitely try the online method, it's not ideal but far better than trying on the phone.
It appears the employees there only have the information available to us i.e. google and bloomberg.

[1gw] 28/7/2016 15:52

Hmmm. High volume, big jump in price, very volatile. A bit of a squeeze?

[beaubleep] 28/7/2016 15:40

Terminated

I think if you work on the following calculation you may have some success selling.

Google finance live price e.g. $27.76
Minus 2% = $27.20
Divided by Bloomberg exchange rate 1.31

= £20.70p

Put in a sell at 2,050p and it should go through, keep checking and it will either go through after 5 or 10 minutes or they will cancel it. They only seem to try it once.

I agree about the trying to talk to them on the phone, this will only lead to you self harming.

[terminated] 28/7/2016 15:37

Did you use the online method or did you have to call them direct?

[beaubleep] 28/7/2016 15:28

Terminated
Just managed to sell some with Selftrade at £20.65, I am though laying in my darkened room.
I put in £20.50, as I paid £18.37 in January I'm happy enough.
I am now left with the ones from the Pace takeover.