|P2P Global Investments
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P2P Global Share Discussion Threads
Showing 401 to 421 of 425 messages
|See - moaning stops - and she goes up lol|
|.... a bit like being on a small boat that's sinking where no matter how fast you are bailing out the water it makes no difference because of all the little holes.... ( forgive the crude analogy but it makes me smile on this dreary January day!).|
|This list may not be exhaustive: 1. Annual Management Charge 2. Performance Fee 3.Platform Servicing Fees. 4. Administration Fees 5. Impairment Charges 6. Cost of FX hedging 6. Cost of debt, both floating and fixed. 7.Securitisation related costs 8 Other liabilitres. ....|
|I cant see anything about charges and costs specifically in the newsletter? Management and performance fees are 1% pa and 15% of nav increase respectively I think. The platform charges/custody etc I cant see any info on.|
|read the newsletter. cant see much in there to be optimistic about. The level of impairments has risen especially on US consumer loans due to the aging of the portfolio. And it seems that it has reached the level it should be at rather than this being an outlier as the newsletter states that the portfolio benefitted from new loans being added in the first few years which begin with lower impairment rates. Average interest rate of 10-11% less about 5% in impairments only leaves about 5% before platform/admin fees and performance fees. The fund is also quite highly leveraged - more debt than equity.
In terms of drivers of performance, there doesn't seem to be anything that will revert to pushing up yields for investors. Gross yields are broadly the same as start of year, impairments are now higher and expected to stay at this level. Cash is fully deployed. Equity positions aren't doing much. Cost of leverage may decrease a little.
still not sure how average US loans size can be £9500 and they have 147,000 loans, which is more than gross assets just on this sector. Also it has gearing ratio as 115% but debt to equity as 82%. what is the difference?|
|I meant to say high charges AND high costs. This latest newsletter provides more transparency but also reveals more costs that the fund incurs for one reason or another and all these things add up to depress the monthly return . If the credit cycle was in a less benign period the returns would surly be negative.|
|All good points. I haven't read the newsletter yet but its not looking great. Really thought this thing would pick up after a few poor months following brexit.
If they can really only generate about 3% a year, and that's after using leverage, the fund ought to be wound down. No two ways about it.|
|Looking through the latest newsletter two things are clear:
1.Impairments are coming in at around 5% which is poor in this benign credit environment, and
2. The charges or total expense ratio are very high,
How else can you justify the low monthly returns culminating in the latest 0.12%? The only real attraction is the discount to net asset value. All the original hype ie each borrower can have up to 200 data points of information, led to the original premium to net asset value but the reality is turning out to be quite different. I think you get much better value in the preference shares of strong financial companies like Aviva and Lloyds Banking Group where you can get 6 to 6.6% yields covered more than 200 times by earnings. Why take the risk with mainly unsecured debt on this new unproven asset class?|
rl34870 - the high yield isn't protection - because the yld is fairly guaranteed and compounded (theoretically over say 3yrs) that's a known 22% compound - hence high yielders, and esp v hi yielders, can tend to have negative price drift - of say 22% in this case, so the total return is flat in the same period - ceteris paribus.
That in addition to the standard discount of a zero yldr - of say another 10-20% - and that in addition to some elastic price action (TA - which doesn't exist of course - even tho every top city trader uses it lol). Which is why ultra hi yielders attract negative sentiment (and the odd shorter, moaner etc). Its just maths - but the shorter needs a slag story too mind (handily provided by the moaner), and a technical level to enter short off (even tho that technical level doesn't exist of course).|
|Im wondering who is selling at a 20% discount and furthermore its in the face of a buyback program. Bizarre isn't it. Someone out there feels its better to sell at this price than hold onto them.
I don't think you should knock technical analysis - I'm not a firm believer but we all use it subconsciously - eg looking at the recent highs and lows is technical analysis. If others follow such indicators then the can become self fulfilling.
Re daily volume, the average daily vol for past 3 months has been 100k, the same as average volume for the last 12 months. So I don't think you can draw the conclusion that its just management buying shares at the moment. Nothing has actually changed in terms of daily volume.
They probably announced the buy back program at -25% ish cos they thought there was risk discount would go to -50% in absence of doing anything! I'm not sure there is any value selling at 850. if you believe that they will start returning the 0.5-0.7% monthly returns needed to get share price back to 1000p then you should hold on. All the factors they mentioned for these low monthly returns shud have/be dissipating. And u get the extra kicker of the buy backs adding NAV.|
|Thank you RL for your kind words............I am wondering if LuckyMouse is a shareholder or just testing his ideas on this BB.
Like you it wont be long until we see some figures from the management and then the real debate can start on how this fund has been run.|
|Anley is right, most of the current daily volume is share buy back.As I said before if they hadn't made a formal announcement regarding the buyback back they could be buying shares at 7.30 rather than 8.10. All that technical stuff is nonsense. Next NAV will be very interesting as it will reflect end of year value in audited annual report so could be a sizeable move either way. Think more likely to be a good figure as I think they are a cautious lot and may have been slightly undervaluing.|
|Then whats with all the moaning? TA is just a visual way of reading the tape, like sheet music. You cant pretend it doesnt exist just cos that was the old school culture. In between periodic news/ fundamental events, TA is all you have.
Plus if your city you should know a discount is no good on its own. Should have been called 'Assets at Discount with a Catalyst'. We have a catalyst here...|
|LUCKYMOUSE........why should I sell - you silly person............I came in at the bottom on the basis that I was brought up in the City to manage portfolios which were described as "Assets at a Discount" and in fact I was the manager of a fund called Assets at a Discount Investment Trust. So nothing to do with all your flow indicators etc just plain old - what is something worth and why is is priced at a discount and that applies to P2P.
I told you I have set a limit and that is where I will exit..............|
|Yes I did a course many yrs ago lol - classical - also not much use in reality lol. You have to experience the savage rigors of index trading and hang with some v good american traders if you want to see the real thing.|
|very interesting re Chaikin Money flow indicator & divergence.
I did the Chartered Markets technician level 1 course but many years ago so don't recall much of it.|
|Well then sell & leave - simple as that. Otherwise you are just part of the discount issue - ironically!
Plus the trade log says there were plenty of small timers happy to punt it off the btm to the main line. If it breaks up at some point im sure the exact same crowd will be happy to punt it again??|
|YES but its the managers of the fund who are buying back the shares.....its as simple as that - no other buyers in sight as its such a dog and not that interesting a company for small shareholders...........basicilly is a disaster and the big boys behind it are doing what they are doing to save face.|
|Thanks but most of the buying is the management buying back around 25K shares per day. There are not too many smallish shareholders and the buying pattern is strange but as far as I am concerned I shall be out when this goes to 850p as that will have given me a huge return on capital employed in P2P.............|
|There is buying at these levels for the 7% yield - chart shows a set up for a potential break out. The divergence reveals the fall is slowing/turning, strong money flow tells the volume has flipped to more buyers than sellers, the top trend line hasn't broken yet but may well do if this new buying trend continues. The potential B/O is of interest because when a down trend breaks a load of folks tend to jump in for a quick rise or because its proof its btm'd. With nav fairly static at c.1000 its mainly a yield/income play but with a historically larger than normal discount here for this asset could well turn into a trade also with 10-20% upside. The buyback program is supporting too and designed to reduce/manage the discount, which means the co want it to break up. Hope that helps.
|LuckyMouse .........what are you trying to tell us please?|