Oriel Resources Share Discussion Threads

[hywel] 02/8/2007 18:30

Great post by Colin (AliceinWonder1) on the fool site yesterday:



Frankly i was having difficulty valuing this company and this goes a long way to helping:

'Valuation

I have not seen any broker notes, so I don't have a clue how the City is valuing ORI at the minute. To be fair, it is currently very much a figure in the air given that the plans with regard to Shevchenko are still under wraps.

Taking the NPV calculations (at 10% discount rate) that have bandied around this year:

• Voskhod - $472m pre-tax
• Tikhvin – silence is golden
• Shevchenko - $1,642m pre-tax

The Voskhod valuation is probably conservative given how hot the chrome market seems to be. The Shevchenko valuation has to be a 'finger in the air'. I don't know why Tikhvin does not have a value, perhaps it pays not to give Russian assets a value; suffice to say that Tikhvin has been called a 'cash cow' on a number of occasions.

If we take Voskhod and Shevchenko, take a 30% discount for tax, and a 10% discount for the time value of money, ORI's valuation would appear to be about $1.33bn, with 636m shares this equates roughly to $2 per share, say £1 a share. If we assume that the value of Tikhvin takes care of the political risk, I see ORI, subject to turbulence in world markets, ticking towards £1 in the medium term.

Much depends of course on Shevchenko.'

[knackers] 31/7/2007 09:32

Rumours circling...?

[azalea] 31/7/2007 09:07

The ORI train has left the station.

[knackers] 29/7/2007 16:57

ORI is no lanky adolescent she has come of age - and how!
The only snag is with that new smelter she's wearing mini skirt, stockings and suspenders.

This is one stock you just want to stay with. Plenty further to go.

[azalea] 28/7/2007 11:04

Flagon
Thank you for news on the AGM - it could be interesting. I think the floor on this is at the recent placing price 61p; IF it falls notably below, I will add.

[hywel] 27/7/2007 12:00

Yeah considering the mkt cap, this is a very unknown company. If the hot money from the mining punters comes this way it could wooosh. I'd probably be looking to sell then and get back in when it calms down a bit. In the meantime i'm holding on.

[azalea] 27/7/2007 11:57

This share could soon start to attract some hot money.

[flagon] 27/7/2007 11:38

Nothing to add really except that the AGM is next Tuesday. Will there be some news there ?

In addition, from the most recent presentation at Minesite Oriel said that Shevchenko would be 'sorted' by the end of this year. However, from the final results earlier this month they said -

" ...management is aggressively evaluating the optimum process and
economics options to develop the Shevchenko nickel project, with on-going
discussions with financial advisers. A decision on chosen technology and a
construction time-line will be made in Q3 2007."

So Shevchenko news shortly.

Anyhow, Oriel's share price is behaving like King Canute at the moment in a sea of red. We all know what happened to him !!

Good luck,


Flagon

[azalea] 27/7/2007 10:27

To add to the possible intrigue, I can only buy 1k on line(sell 2.5k), so I'm holding on tight, even though sellers are in the ascendancy.

[azalea] 27/7/2007 10:01

Kermit
I was thinking on similar lines - something could be going on, the share price will simply not lie down; in specific terms I too do not know why. I bought on Eanermoon doubling its stake, ferrochrome prices and the generally promising story, to that end then, yes, I could see the share price being strong under normal circumstances. So why are the MM marking it up and down like a yo yo for seemingly no appparent reason? My guess is that there are rumours circulating in the city of orders/a deal, etc and as they wax and wane so the MM change the share price Interesting to say the least!(IFL dropped 8.5p this morning).

[futre] 27/7/2007 09:13

Brief dip this morning Hywel, hope you took advantage ?

[azalea] 26/7/2007 15:09

All aboooard!

[azalea] 26/7/2007 13:37

The share price train could be about to leave the station.

[hywel] 26/7/2007 12:30

I just wish i had more of these! Maybe if we get a dip i'll buy some more.

[mikehardman] 26/7/2007 10:42

a bit better buying today, price edging up too;
fundamentals continue to look good

[azalea] 26/7/2007 10:32

A small tick up. I am quite excited about the prospects and reassured by Eanermoon Ltd spending circa £36m to almost double its stake in the recent placing. That said, with forecasts for increased demand and associated prices for ferrochrome, the investment appears to have pretty shrewed intent.

[azalea] 23/7/2007 14:40

I think ORI will give IFL a good run for its money; I am in both!

[mikehardman] 23/7/2007 14:39

added sub 63.5p

[mikehardman] 23/7/2007 14:37

up a bit,
fair chance of breaking 64p upwards, AGM next week

[knackers] 18/7/2007 00:13

Stay very firmly put, K. 200% upside in 2-3 years.

[kermit] 17/7/2007 15:37

I am still long.

Chart looks great news flow is now seeping out.

Sorry for the whinge a couple of weeks ago....i still feel we need a fresh bunch of buyers up here to push this further.

[hywel] 17/7/2007 14:38

Oriel Resources PLC
17 July 2007


AIM: ORI
TSX: ORL
PRESS RELEASE
17 July 2007


Oriel Resources Plc ('Oriel' or the 'Company')


Oriel generates first revenue from Tikhvin ferrochrome smelter, Russia and signs
off take contract for the Voskhod chrome project, Kazakhstan


The Directors of Oriel Resources Plc ('Oriel' or 'the Company'), the
London-based chrome and nickel mining and processing company, are pleased to
announce the initial sale of high carbon ferrochrome ('HC FeCr') product from
the Tikhvin smelter plant, Russia ('Tikhvin') and the signing of a long term off
take contract for the purchase of chrome ore product from the Voskhod chrome
project, Kazakhstan.

Tikhvin's initial batch of saleable HC FeCr product has successfully been sold
at approximately US$1.30 per pound, representing Oriel's first revenue from
current working projects.

Oriel recently completed a long term off take contract with Glencore
International AG ('Glencore') to market a significant proportion of Voskhod's
annual 900,000t of beneficiated chromite ore product, commencing Q3 2008.


Dr Sergey V Kurzin, Executive Chairman of Oriel commented:

'In addition, we are pleased to report that a number of major international
metal traders have confirmed their interest in our high carbon ferrochrome
product. These initial ferrochrome sales from Tikhvin are a significant
milestone in the Company's development as a vertically integrated supplier to
the stainless steel industry. We are also pleased to have Glencore join us as an
off taker of our Voskhod chrome ore.'

[kermit] 10/7/2007 15:27

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Nickel prices sunk to a seven month low after the LME reported stocks rose again, adding fuel to the idea that supply is nowhere near as tight as it has been in the past few months.

The grey metal soared to a record high of 51,800 usd in May when global inventory stood at less than a day's worth of consumption. However, with prices so high, demand took a hit and the metal's value has lost nearly 40 pct since hitting the all-time high.

"Nickel, so very long the forerunner for any sustained move higher, has become a black sheep of the family continuing its heavy spiral downwards," said Alex Heath, head of the base metals team at RBC Capital Markets. "Stocks have once again filtered into warehouses, which the market expects for some time to come, and this seems to be one of the main influences on the 3-month price."

The LME said stocks rose 72 tonnes to 9,954 tonnes earlier, in a daily report. Inventory tracked by the LME has risen 224 pct since hitting a low of 2,982 in February.

UBS analyst John Reade said 10,000 tonnes is a psychologically important volume of stocks for market players.

Prices also slumped as stainless steel producers, which had heavily relied on the metal for output, are using less of the grey metal.

At 2.21 pm LME nickel for three-month delivery was down at 32,200 usd, its lowest level since January, from 34,400 usd yesterday.

Elsewhere, copper continued lower on profit taking but stayed close to a two-month high hit yesterday because supply threats from strikes across the globe limited losses.

Several Chilean mine workers' strikes have been supporting the copper price during the first month of the third quarter, which is traditionally a quiet trading period because a large number of European traders take long summer vacations.

Copper was down at 7,870 usd from 7,990 usd at the close yesterday.

Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, has stopped operations at its Andina plant in Chile, because of labour protests. A protest announced yesterday at Collahuasi, Chile's third biggest mine, also continued to stoke jitters. Collahuasi's output accounts for nearly 3 pct of total global supply.

"With the strike at Collaluasi now ongoing all eyes will be on how the dispute is handled," said BaseMetals.Com analyst William Adams. "With the mine producing some 8 pct of Chile's copper output any protracted strike that succeeds in affecting output could start to impact the supply/demand balance."

In other metals, lead eased slightly, having hit yet another all-time high yesterday of 2,949 usd per tonne. Lead was down at 2,920 usd from 2,946 usd at the close yesterday.

Aluminium was down at 2,799 usd from 2,813 usd, and zinc eased to 3,375 usd against 3,450 usd. Tin was flat at 14,150 usd.