Nth.Mid.Cons Share Discussion Threads

[Abuse team] 20/3/2006 16:04

Post removed by ADVFN

[edmundshaw] 20/3/2006 16:03

C2I, copy that. One of the (relatively few) advantages of large director holdings is that a company that is growing strongly and well managed really can get big without fear of being taken out at a price that would be hard to resist for the institutions. So if they like growing organically and just doing what they do well without too much interference, they have great prospects as long as market conditions remain good.

I get the feeling they don't like spending cash outside the business (no acquisitions I can recall, a very low stock market profile), though they reward investors adequately on the dividend front and spend other profits on organic growth. No complaints there!

FWIW I've been in this approaching 3 years (so missed the earliest rises). I can't see any reason to move on... :-)

[contrarian2investor] 20/3/2006 15:54

ED
Thanks for reply, it appearS to me that bigger companies that can no longer grow organically are buying their future growth by stealth. So with NMD being a small growing and profitable company. It is going to be on the radar of a predator. I chose Galliford/Try because it has a significant Midlands presence even before it bought TRY. Just my thoughts, I would prefer to have this stock 10 years from now having grown 15% each year rather than receiving a 10% premium in the short-term.

TIA
C2I

[edmundshaw] 15/3/2006 18:34

Unclear to me. No RNS about holdings over 3%; and the PE is still quite reasonable for a successful, steadily growing, well managed company (especially given the contract and 'ahead of budget' news, and the new premises to cope with further expansion) - lower than Galliford (though a much smaller company), so could just be a continued rerating.

But who knows?

Current market cap about £30m, so I'd say a predator would need to offer £40m to £45m (this would add order of 10% to Galliford turnover and profits), and they would be paying about the right price given their higher rating; attractive given the assets they'd acquire.

But NMD is not liquid, so a hostile takeover would be difficult; and do GT want the added debt?? Also haven't checked out the geographic fit...

Anyway, I think we're headed further north without any takeover, as the market is right and the company business is right (IMO).

What do you think?

[contrarian2investor] 15/3/2006 17:57

Hi everyone, the shares seem to be ticking up over the past 3 months. Is this the beginning of stakebuilding by a predator. My thoughts is that the likeS of Galliford/Try could just snap up NMD without much fuss. Any thoughts.

TIA
C2I

[jeff h] 28/2/2006 00:34

yes......and now another £3m worth of new contracts.

[edmundshaw] 27/2/2006 09:30

Yup.

Geo framework contract looks like a good business to get into. Appears that NMC business is getting broader and bigger all the time!

[jeff h] 25/2/2006 12:37

Website seems to have ben updated:-

[edmundshaw] 10/2/2006 08:13

Four years is a long time, and while expansion both geographically and in their customer base and size is very good at present, there is never andy security about the future that far out; so a sensible target I feel.

That said, I agree that the rate of progress makes the target look restrained; and if you look back at previous trading statements, there are frequent comments of the 'trading ahead of internal targets' type.

They are obviously pressing the right buttons with their customers though. Great to be in!

[jeff h] 09/2/2006 21:55

The way they going on edmund I would have thought they'd hit £200m turnover
well before another 4 years:-

2004 H1 Turnover £47m
2004 H2 Turnover £56m total for 2004 year £103m
2005 H1 Turnover £69m

...the Interims mentioned work in hand of 'circa £120m' though how long these
will take to deliver I wouldn't know.

All in all an exciting time ahead for shareholders I would have thought.

[edmundshaw] 08/2/2006 09:32

Here's more.

Look under vacancies for NMD (there are quite a few!), e.g. for a contracts manager:

"North Midland Construction operates nationally with 5 offices throughout the U.K at present. In 1999 our T/O was £43 million and in 2004 our T/O was £103 million for the next 4 years we are projected to hit £200 million. This is due to a lot of long term contracts we have been awarded and renewed.
...
Nomenca has been going 7 years now as a limited company. From 2001 their turnover was £5.8 million, 2003 was £15.9 million, 2004 £22 million and for this year we have already booked £25 million."

Coupled with the trading statement last October, things are looking good!
=LSE%3ANMD

[edmundshaw] 08/2/2006 09:11

Good quick spot Jeff, thanks.

reference:

[jeff h] 07/2/2006 18:20

...bit of news:-

07 February 2006

NORTH MIDLAND WINS £5M CONTRACT TO BUILD STUDENT ACCOMMODATION

Nottinghamshire based North Midland Building (NMB), part of the North Midland Construction Group, has been awarded a £5m contract by Nottingham developer, Bournston, to build student accommodation in Loughborough.

The project will involve demolishing some redundant buildings but retaining the Curzon Cinema in the town centre and building a new block of apartments to be known as Asha House.

Asha House will be a mixed use development with 126 bedrooms for student accommodation, in self-contained micro units and shared flats, together with the shell for a bowling alley underneath.

The scheme is expected to commence on site in March 2006 and will take some 60 weeks to construct.

The project is the third student accommodation facility that NMB has partnered with Bournston.

"This latest project represents an expansion geographically for the work that we are handling for Bournston", said Brian Evans, Chairman of NMB. "It is clear evidence that the partnership continues to generate opportunities for both companies and we are delighted to be strengthening our relationship."

[penpont] 06/2/2006 15:28

Just did a dummy trade online - can sell 1500 but buy only 150....

I agree there looks to be something going on here. Is a takeover out of the question?

[edmundshaw] 06/2/2006 14:57

This rise is getting a little suspicious... :-)

[edmundshaw] 03/2/2006 09:34

Never any trades reported though, only 1 MM and off the automatic trading platform now...

[penpont] 02/2/2006 23:03

Agree with you re holding on - my prize recent mistakes include Charter and Venture Production, both bought and sold on quickly for a small profit then virtually doubling in a matter of a few months after :-(

This is certainly a strange share - no trades reported to account for the recent rise and I'd have thought a bit far from results yet to account for it.

Not complaining though, and still hoping for forecast beating results.

[edmundshaw] 02/2/2006 10:57

Price up at 270p. This company is getting noticed!

Results towards the end of March.

Trading statement of 17th October:
"trading in the second half of the year is slightly ahead of management's expectations and the comparative period last year."
...
"To support the growth already achieved and anticipated over the next few years, particularly on AMP4, the group is expanding its main operations site in North Nottinghamshire. This expansion will result in capital expenditure of around #3.6 million in 2005 and 2006."

Looking like trading at around a PE of 10 or 10 and a bit; with good growth and a benign economy, this is still looking good.

Actually, I'm still smarting from Severfield-Rowan where I bought at 230p and sold out before 500p. Now over a tenner. Great investment and a pretty awful disposal.

If a co has good characteristics, I'm inclined to hang on for longer now.

[edmundshaw] 03/12/2005 20:44

The spread is usually prohibitive on this one, but actually at just over 4% a lot better than it was!

Ocasionally, the spread has narrowed. But as they are back to one MM, we may not see that too often.

This share would do SO much better if:

1) they had 2 or more MMs
2) they were AIM listed; it ain't that expensive, the reporting rulse are a lot less stringent than FTSE listed shares, and with their track record they should get a PE more like that of, say VP group at around 12 times earnings ( I own some of these, also bought at half the current price, by coincidence!)

How about it fellas, if you read this board?! (But wait for us to top up first please!)

[contrarian2investor] 03/12/2005 18:07

I have a couple of these in my ISA and have been looking for opportunities to purchase some more but the spread is prohibitive. Any ideas anyone. TIA

[penpont] 24/11/2005 17:37

Well done for staying in from that price es, wish I'd spotted them then.

I suppose the lack of liquidity puts people off too but I think it's worth accumulating a modest amount on weaker days.

270 is a cautious target for me, I'm hoping for nearer 300 on a one year view.

[edmundshaw] 23/11/2005 08:53

More than that penpont, IMO, this is also a growth company with a very good track record. I got in (late) at 112p, when the spread was near 7% and the PER a bit silly (low single digits).

Spread still a bit of a problem for new investors, I feel; but I'm happy to hold as the story of expansion, good contracts and good reputation has not changed.

[BTW I actually swing traded a few around 150p on this one!!! Not very easy though given the spread]

[penpont] 22/11/2005 21:50

Following above post, the forecasts have been upgraded now, as below:


05/06

Brewin Dolphin Secs 02-11-05 BUY 3.75 24.75 6.50 4.00 26.53 7.00


Still feel these could be bettered, and that a 12 mth target of 270p is on, making them IMO worth buying on dips.

[penpont] 25/8/2005 10:30

Copied this over from the other thread - this one's best as its got the charts -these should make pleasing viewing over the next several months imo!

Todays interims make this look undervalued by some 25-30% min IMO.

Even if they just repeat the 12p eps in H2 they will make next years current estimates of 24p this year, and in the past few years they have normally had a second half around 20% odd stronger.

This (together with the very confident tone of the statement today) suggests to me they can make 14p+ in H2 this year for a full year of 26p+, well ahead of brokers estimates of 22.6p.

On a modest 10x that's 260p min - and you can ISA it plus look forward to around 3% yld.

I've bought 2 x 1500 shares today through Squaregain - this is the max to sell or buy at present.

Looking to add on any weakness.

[penpont] 25/8/2005 09:52

Post edited out and copied over to other thread with charts