Ncc Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 03/11/2016 00:02

Just back from my hols.

This should be good for business.

UK government re-announces £1.9bn cyber security spend.

The UK government has announced a £1.9bn increase in spending on cyber security for the second time – 12 months after it was first announced.
The government said the funding was part of its new cyber security strategy unveiled today (1 November 2016).
But the money is not new. In a speech at GCHQ on 17 November last year, then Chancellor, George Osborne, said the government was making cyber security a top priority, and announced exactly the same investment

[blueball] 02/11/2016 21:19

Lol he probably did.

[smokybenchod] 02/11/2016 21:15

What are the odds he sold at 350 and bought at 188

[blueball] 02/11/2016 20:53

Smoky waiting for Naked Traders update tomorrow regarding NCC.

[smokybenchod] 02/11/2016 19:59

Dontay, reasons for contract problems have been clearly articulated in broker note, none of them were related to fundamental problems or product.

[dontay] 02/11/2016 19:54

Glasshalfull - thank you very much for responding! And thank you for posting the brokers note... it makes for for an interesting reading. I still have issues with the NCC update though, which apart from the loss of contracts and the FOX deferred one states: "difficulties with contract renewals within the managed security services business unit (formerly Accumuli plc) is causing a significant erosion of margin"... unless I'm missing something (quite likely... I fully admit I'm no expert!) the brokers don't seem to have addressed that issue.The company 'speak' and terminology used by NCC in their update makes me wonder if some of their security products are starting to be viewed as not up to the job... if problems renewing existing customer contracts are due to NCC's products are starting to be being considered to be inferior to a competitors latest offerings then those customers are obviously not going to renew and will go elsewhere, in which case they have some fundamental problems.

[smokybenchod] 02/11/2016 19:54

Noooooooo! I was quite enjoying Groundhog Day, what did I do to wake up and get to the next day? must have been too nice like Bill Murray

[blueball] 02/11/2016 19:50

Well I'm turning bullish a time to buy.

[smokybenchod] 02/11/2016 19:47

That buy signal can't be right blueball, it's not at 170 :p

[smokybenchod] 02/11/2016 19:32

The underlying fact is that Cyber Security is a massive issue for all organisations around the world, with most of them listing it as a principal risk at board level within their annual reports. Long term, NCC is well placed as a global company to help these companies and has proven it can grow impressively organically YoY. With such aggressive growth and acquisitions, problems will happen, although I'm confident that the management will sort out these problems and the bottom line will soon reflect the top line growth. Short term, I'm expecting H1 bottom line problems to be partially mitigated by favourable FX movements which no one (even the brokers) seem to have mentioned.

[glasshalfull] 02/11/2016 18:07

Dontay - I posted their brokers explanation earlier this morning (post 696), if you care to cast your eye. Didn't see any further mention of any other issues.

Their brokers also spoke of the excellent revenue visibility in Escrow, with high margins it commands. Free cashflow is also expected to increase markedly in the coming years.

Regards
GHF

[dontay] 02/11/2016 18:03

I've been looking at the possibility of getting into this stock for a while but always seemed to me to be well 'toppy' with TOO high a premium attached to its 'potential'. The recent 'news' and the consequential share price drop makes it seem all that has gone and that now would be an ideal time to jump on board! My main worry at the moment... isn't so much that forecast profits growth being hit by the unexpected cancellation of the three contracts and the deferral of another... all of which seems to have been adequately explained and has brought the share price back to earth and makes it an ideal buying opportunity at around 200p. In the medium to longer term the 'problem' hopefully won't be too much of a problem and the prospects for the share price eventually getting back to where it was over the next year or two seem reasonably assured if the companies comments are genuine and not just weasel words. However what does concern me is the "delays with renewals of some contracts in managed services". The fact that the company have included it in the trading update obviously gives this problem some element of substance and concern. It seems to me to be a different issue and at the moment I've yet to see any explanation for it.I'd appreciate it if someone on this board could give me a reasonable idea of what the implications of failure to renew existing contracts would mean. My main worry is if existing customers have a problem and don't want to renew, it points to a more fundamental type failure, that's a whole different ball game and has the potential to be far more serious. Am I wrong? Any advice from you guys would be appreciated

[ilovefrogs] 02/11/2016 16:20

Hey, thanks guys, appreciate it! :-)

[shauney2] 02/11/2016 14:34

Thanks for posting GHF.

[ilovefrogs] 02/11/2016 14:17

So, not a single thumbs up for that hair product-related piece of comic genius?? Honestly, this country.......

[effortless cool] 02/11/2016 13:20

Thanks, GHF.

[ilovefrogs] 02/11/2016 11:52

iLeeman - does an inverse head and shoulders actually give you more dandruff........

[glasshalfull] 02/11/2016 10:59

Singer's have issued a buy note this morning that provides more clarity on the issues that have given rise to the 45% shareprice fall.

Some highlights of relevance,

The trading update has caused a significant shift in investor sentiment. However, we believe that the fundamental investment proposition is unchanged. Cyber security remains a key theme within the technology sector and there remain a limited number of ways for UK investors to gain access to this structural growth trend. We address a number of investor concerns below and ultimately believe that NCC remains a highly attractive asset, which will continue to deliver strong organic growth, albeit from a reset base in FY’17.

The trading update highlighted the loss of three major contracts in the Assurance division. We are convinced that the individual circumstances around the contracts were unrelated and do not reflect a weakening in demand for cyber security services.

Two of the deals were related to specific M&A deals, which ultimately did not happen.

The third deal is related to a financial services customer which has changed its plans post Brexit. We believe it is fairly routine for individual projects to fall away for a variety of reasons, and NCC has proved itself to be adept at managing utilisation levels in these circumstances in the past. While three large projects falling away in a short space of time is unfortunate, we do not see this as a fundamental change in the market dynamics. We understand that the pipeline of potential projects is strong and expect the group to return to normal utilisation levels in due course. As noted above, however, we are taking a slightly more prudent view than management on how long it takes for these opportunities to be converted. 

The trading update also referenced a large contract deferral within FOX-IT due to “complex Government relationships”. We believe that the concept of the Dutch government continuing to use FOX after the change of ownership would have been addressed at the time of acquisition and do not see this as a long term issue. We believe that FOX management may have been overly optimistic on the length of time it would take to negotiate a complex, long term contract with a government body, but ultimately do not believe that the contract can be serviced by anyone other than FOX . We fully expect FOX to continue to have a strong relationship with the Dutch government and see scope for material cross-selling of its product set over the course of our forecast period.

---

Singers have a 266p target price.

I've been buying & hope this assists.

Kind regards
GHF

[ileeman] 02/11/2016 09:23

Inverse and head shoulders on chart an nice uptrend taking place.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[ilovefrogs] 02/11/2016 09:03

Brokers are clueless. They're only interested in where the next corporate deal is coming from, and they are trailing indicators not leading ones. Read the research for information, but I would ignore price targets and recommendations.

[karmastuartra] 02/11/2016 08:32

More pain to come me thinks,will wait and See.

[potential] 02/11/2016 08:26

Holding well, £2.56 seems like what most are predicting short term!!

[blueball] 02/11/2016 08:25

Opened down again.