Mulberry Share Discussion Threads

[irenekent] 15/6/2012 06:12

Thanks davehowl. Totally agree. This will one day be £40. A company that is going places.

[davehowl] 14/6/2012 19:35

Correction - look at thread Mulberry - Short the berries off it - FD resigns and sells shares (MUL) from 2007. It's a cracking read! A certain déjà vu about it and then we all know what happened after. It picked up!

[ninja 19] 14/6/2012 14:11

it's not a profit warning.

[jon827] 14/6/2012 12:46

another company creating new jobs and getting a beating for it!

[puntersez] 14/6/2012 12:38

from FT alphaville. note this is not being talked about as a profits warning in the City:


"Here's Panmure, again.

BE
Mulberry has delivered FY2012 profits that are excellent, albeit £1m below our expectations. Current trade has picked up strongly from a sluggish start and the opening programme is to be accelerated to perhaps 20 stores a year. However, at 3.3x 2015 sales, we think that the shares are fairly valued.

BE
What has been announced: Mulberry has delivered yet another excellent set of results. Total sales grew by 38%, H1 by 62% and H2 by 25%. Total sales were £168.5m, compared with our forecast for £172m. Within this, retail sales grew by 36%, including like-for-like growth of 26%. Wholesale shipments increased by 43%. Asia/Pacific (where Mulberry operates with Club 21 as a partner) grew sales by a phenomenal 70% to £25m.

BE
Profits benefit from increased scale and operational gearing: Gross margins increased by 80 basis points, which implies a flat performance in H2 after a 230 basis point improvement in H1, but this was expected as H1 had benefited from the bringing forward of sales. Improved buying power and scale efficiencies have overall overwhelmed the dilutive effect of higher wholesale sales in the mix. Costs grew slightly slower than sales, at 35%, so operating profits surged by 54% to £35m and pretax profits by 54% to £36m, slightly below our forecast of £37m.

BE
Current trading is picking up: In the 10 weeks to 1 June, retail sales are ahead by 12%, with full price like-for-like sales ahead by 14% and outlet sales down by 24% (due to tough comparables). Growth has accelerated in the last six weeks, with UK like-for-like sales ahead by 21%. The Autumn/Winter wholesale season has started well, with sales up 11% year on year.

BE
What it means: 2012 had a couple of extra costs to absorb. First, Mulberry funded its appearance at British Fashion Week (marketing costs were £4m higher) and, second, its new Chief Executive's share purchase. Mulberry has increased its sales by £47m in FY2012, of which 26% has made its way to the bottom line. This augurs well for the future profitability of the business. The appetite for Mulberry products shows no sign of abating and, to that end, management is doing its best to satisfy it, with increased production capacity now onstream and a decent opening programme, with 14 stores opening during the year, with perhaps 20 opening in the current year.

BE
Valuation: We believe that the next few years will see the Mulberry brand significantly extend its global reach. Its design team has developed an outstanding product that appeals to a broad range of consumers, built upon strong existing craftsmanship and quality connotations. We expect strong product development to accelerate this momentum. This should allow strong, sustained sales growth in all three of its main channels (retail, franchise and wholesale), primarily in International markets, across Asia Pacific, Europe and the US. Mulberry's growth potential is mostly untapped, although we are becoming increasingly confident that it will be achieved. We moved from Buy to Hold in March, because the shares had reached our target price. Valued on a 2015 EV/sales multiple of 3.3x, we think that they are fairly valued.

BE
(@PeterC: they lowballed their figures and now they're less lowballed. There. That's a comment.)

BE
... And Barclays.

BE
Mulberry reported 2011/12 full year results in line with our estimates, but current trading for the first 10 weeks of 2012/13 has been weaker than our expectations meaning that we reduce our FY13 EBIT by 9% and EPS by 8%. We now expect FY13 revenue growth of 19% y/y versus 28% previously. Our forecasts now imply a 22% 5 year EPS CAGR. Management remains confident in the medium term international expansion strategy and the transition to the new CEO, Bruno Guillon, has been smooth. We reduce our price target to £19.30 reflecting our earnings downgrades and retain our 2-Equal Weight rating.

BE
41 times current year.

[buffett100bln] 14/6/2012 12:27

BUFFETT100BLN 21 May'12 - 13:57 - 259 of 295 edit

Yep, going to £15.

Totally over pumped. At 22.00 it had a PE of 75.

Nice one Goldman.



Am I a 'king soothsayer or what? !!!


Am I right in saying this will go to circa £10 now...given the on coming Chinese recession and probably a Q4 collpase in stockmarkets...might take until 2013 at some point to get to £10 but it'll probably happen.

[ninja 19] 14/6/2012 11:20

Donkey Boy

You are a teaboy, keep reading about arbitrage in 20 years, you may get to learn about synthetic trading

[aleks_atanasov] 14/6/2012 10:52

punter - ninja just posted it. for me thats a profit warning am not going to debate it.

ninja.. who is a donkey boy?

[ninja 19] 14/6/2012 10:50

Doubt donkey boy can not afford any Mulberry !!!

[ninja 19] 14/6/2012 10:49

Punter

This is normal, MMS wack it down, and got the leveraged players. Designer goods are doing very well



"While the current economic conditions make the short term trading outlook more challenging in some markets, we remain confident about Mulberry's long term future"

[puntersez] 14/6/2012 10:46

aleks -can you point out the warning. cant see it myself

[ninja 19] 14/6/2012 10:43

that's a big seller here. Once he gets taken out this will pop

[clocktower] 14/6/2012 10:33

Well done all. Carpetright next!!!

[ninja 19] 14/6/2012 10:21

My personal target is 1700p today, and I will f off

[aleks_atanasov] 14/6/2012 10:09

punter - yeah its a small miss but the text includes a profit warning.

fancy short there me thinks you ve been lucky nothing more.

agree now is not the time and price to short and also in my opinion to buy.

[puntersez] 14/6/2012 10:06

Slight miss here combined with the c-word ("challenging")...well done to those that were short from £24-odd when it did look well topy. Currently though:

PE here 1550.44p =26. EPSgrowth 47%. PEG= 0.55

BRBY: PE 1300/62p 21. EPS growth 26%. PEG of 0.81

So I wont be shorting from here

Punter

[trikytree] 14/6/2012 10:05

Seems very over done for what look quite reasonable results. Imagine the carnage here if the results had been bad lol. Still over valued but not quite as obscenely as before.

[ninja 19] 14/6/2012 10:02

They are trying hard to keep the pressure on buying.

[ninja 19] 14/6/2012 09:56

Irene

they could.

[aleks_atanasov] 14/6/2012 09:43

"Mulberry Shares Drop in London After Missing Estimates"



irenekent - i dont know i dont have a cristal ball. besides.. if my info is correct Melissa owns 56% what makes you think she will sell.

[irenekent] 14/6/2012 09:25

How long before LVMH puts a bid in? It would be a perfect fit.