Ms Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 10/9/2013 12:22

Yes nearly 2.5%, we may get an RNS.

Possibly recently retired David Pyle selling some of his 10% stake?

[pabster] 10/9/2013 09:39

Interesting to see a big volume print at 180 a couple of days ago - hopefully clears out a large seller. 500k shares traded, which for this stock is a big chunk.

[cockerhoop] 23/7/2013 13:02

Further to my last post I notice that between April 2012 and October 2012 most of the Cash and Cash Equivalents was transferred from 'Cash at bank and in hand' to 'Short term deposits' possibly attracting a better rate. Interest received this year has also increased suggesting that may be the case.

[cockerhoop] 23/7/2013 08:25

WCB,

I take your point about the lack of interest on the cash pile, if its free cash then they could surely utilise it better.

Regards levels of cash, it dropped to £4m at the half year in October 2010 after the purchase of the remaining bit of Global-MSI and has built up pretty rapidly since.

I'm rather frustrated that I missed the AGM this year, recent Agms have been in August which coincides with family holidays so this year would have been a good opportunity to attend and ask some questions. In true MSI style though it wasn't publicised in any RNS that i'm aware of and I unfortunately don't automatically get sent the AR as I hold in a nominee account.

Anyway it's good to get a little debate on the company via this board.

[westcountryboy] 22/7/2013 21:28

The cash pile is a puzzle to me. It appeared in 2006: before then there was nothing to speak of, but in 2006 it grew to £5.2m and by 2008 was at £10m where it has stayed more or less since, until this year when it rose to £13.5m. Yet only in 2007-9 has net interest actually been earned on that sum: in the last four years there has been a very small interest bill. I suspect this has something to do with the line about progress payments in the cash flow statement. If they really have £13.5m free then they should, as Danger says, give some of it back to us!

[dangersimpson2] 22/7/2013 16:45

WCB,

I agree that MSI will never set the world alight but given the EV/EBITDA & EV/FCF metrics it should be able to deliver 10% pa return without any growth in revenue or earnings (assuming they return their surplus cash to investors over time through either an increased dividend or capital return.) I'd be happy with this given the possibility of a re-rating at some point although I was slightly disappointed with the dividend only being held given the growing cash pile.

Overall I think MSI is a solid part of a defensive portfolio but wouldn't overweight it despite the great metrics due to the concerns you raise.

Cheers,

Danger

[pabster] 22/7/2013 16:16

Jakedog2, agree with your point. A stock like this should be part of a balanced portfolio. It's never had a high multiple, but has traded in a p/e range of 7.5 (near where we are now) to 9x, so through multiple expansion alone you will get a satisfactory return and then the added bonus of a divi.

As WCB mentions, we might eventually get some change brought about by younger blood who may look to raise the external profile of the company.

[cockerhoop] 22/7/2013 15:55

I also hold and also agree it's too cheap and completely agree with WCB regarding the reasons.

I was hopeful that with the retirement of David Pyle (Executive Company Secretary!) that approx 600K in pay, bonus and pensions (from 2012 accounts) would be removed from costs going forward but it looks like it's being kept in the family.

[jakedog2] 22/7/2013 15:37

Westcountryboy....good post, agree.
Has been on my radar for while having traded it before.

Yes, it is never going to scream away, but if I get a 10% return and a 4% divi in the next 12 months.... That does me,. Like to have balanced portfolio with some risk but also some 'plodders' like MSI

[westcountryboy] 22/7/2013 15:30

I hold, because I agree it's too cheap, but I'm afraid this has been a value trap for years and unless we're lucky the upside is not going to be astronomical. It's dependent on defence spending, which will be under pressure for a long time. There is no consistent projection of visibility, so no reason to award a high PE ratio. The lack of interest in getting a high profile will ensure that it never gets on most PIs' radar. People come, a bit excited at the metrics, and then they get bored and drift away. Occasionally a journalist puffs it up and there is a flurry of interest.

The most interesting thing is the appointment of Nicholas Bell. If this is indeed MB's son, then it indicates an intention to carry family management into the next generation, so the business is not going to be sold any time soon. But he might bring a new approach: it will be interesting to see what it is. I actually like family-run companies when the shareholding is widely distributed so the shareholders and not just the directors get good rewards.

[jakedog2] 22/7/2013 14:22

Happy to take out a position after update...As Pabster points out £36m mkt cap with a £13m cash pile....with 4% yield, minimises the risk IMHO
MSI have a history of under promising / cautious approach, so revenue guidance of the same for the next yr, is fine by me.

PE of 7 , means minimal downside .... With expectations

Anything north of £1.97 will be needed to break the 18 month down channel ....break that would be bullish IMHO

[cockerhoop] 22/7/2013 13:03

IMS released at lunchtime!



Some chunky defence orders announced - £32m over a number of years.

But revenue unlikely to surpass this years although revenue growth expected at forgings and forecourts.

Nicholas Bell (presumably related) promoted to the exceedingly well paid board.

[pabster] 15/7/2013 17:44

Feels overdone here and panicky seller
Market cap of £36m and cash of £13m on operating profit of £5m
4% div yield too!

[xdavid] 13/3/2013 12:20

They will send you printed reports if you phone them. There is additional info in them but don't expect anything 'glossy'.

WCB, I seem to remember MB being asked once about possibility of getting a company broker for forecasts, etc. and his reply was along the lines of, "why should we pay money for that - the share price will take care of itself."

Maybe he is quite happy to just keep buying the shares himself (last buy last March @ £2.94) but at a 26% holding, he can't go too much higher. 3 directors own 44% of the company so it is unlikely to fall prey to a lo-ball takeover. But then that also opens up a whole new possibility for an unwelcome "exit strategy"!

At this depressed price, even allowing for the "profits warning", it must be on a current year PE of low 7s, nearly 4% divi. PTNAV of 1.8. Crazy, but what can one do? Without broker coverage it is always likely to be discounted (or just fluctuate wildly as it does).

[westcountryboy] 12/3/2013 19:59

I think there are just the websites for the different divisions.

I went to an AGM in Doncaster in 2006. There was just me and a fellow-investor called Jim. We were treated with great consideration - Michael Bell is an old-fashioned Yorkshire gent - but I didn't get the sense that he was a great enthusiast for the ways of the City.

I would love to know what his exit strategy is.

[skanjete2] 12/3/2013 19:38

Does somebody know if there is a website with investor info (annual reports etc.) available?
I can't seem to find the necessary website/information.

[pabster] 06/3/2013 15:56

It is worth remembering the company is 1/4 in cash, paying 3.5% dividend at these levels, trading on a single digit p/e. In the interims they had already forwarned that this year would not match the record figures of 2011.

The fact that the share hasn't traded today at these low levels should give some confidence that weak hands are not being stopped out and we may have found a level.

The company are not great communicators but that might be where the advantage lies for savvy investors who have done the work and are confident in their research.

[rivaldo] 06/3/2013 15:09

Agreed wcb. I was away on hols when the IMS came out so couldn't react quickly.

On balance the shares are worth holding imo. I'd guess they'll report say 24p-25p EPS and £11m-£12m net cash, which would make this share price pretty cheap.

However, I'd never have more than a small holding for the reasons we're all familiar with - illiquidity, lack of narrative from the company, lack of "City" support via brokers etc etc...

[westcountryboy] 21/2/2013 07:40

The market sell-off must owe something to the ridiculously, in fact offensively, offhand statement.

1) It's frivolous to say that the second half bias has become fourth quarter bias without any rationale or firm evidence that the money will materialise then

2) As there are no broker forecasts there is no sense of market expectations, so their own expectations are of no interest.

3) why now say 'inevitably lower' than last year? There is nothing inevitable about doing less well than the year before.

4) it would be truly alarming if they had run out of net cash!

I am very unimpressed.

[johnthespacer] 20/2/2013 15:05

Possibly oversold here given the 'in line' result??

[alter ego] 20/2/2013 12:45

IMS out

"All three Group divisions, 'Defence' 'Forgings' and 'Petrol Station Superstructures' have faced specific challenges in their respective markets. Nevertheless, the net result will be in line with our expectations albeit inevitably lower than last year's record figure.

The balance sheet remains very strong with net cash and short term deposits."

[darlocst] 15/2/2013 16:17

Good to see MSI heading up back up, some chunky trades going through this week as well.

IMS should be out in the next week.

[xdavid] 03/2/2013 15:23

Nice find, Mr T. I love the fact that they continue to invest in state-of-the-art facilities and still remain cash rich!

[mr. t] 03/2/2013 14:44

It's a couple of months old, but here's a press release from MSI forks about their relatively new manufacturing facility in Rock Hill, South Carolina:



MSI Forks have been manufacturing forks in the UK since 1964, and opened a distribution business in Rock Hill, SC in 1996. This was followed in 2003, by opening a manufacturing facility in Sao-Paulo, Brazil.

MSI's commitment to the North American marketplace was confirmed when the Rock Hill, SC facility was converted into a state of the art manufacturing facility in 2011. MSI saw a need for this as

Sao-Paulo
it fitted in with the company commitment of being able to supply fork-arms of any configuration on the shortest possible lead time. As the recession struck MSI identified that their customers were no longer willing to hold large stocks of fork-arms and had a preference for a rapid delivery. MSI perceived that the North American market wished for greater choice than that which was offered by one dominant fork-arm manufacturer.

The manufacturing facility in Rock Hill, SC has now been fully

Rock Hill
commissioned and has demonstrated a reliable and impressive capability. The American forklift truck market now has an option in buying forks that have been manufactured through an entirely North American supply chain.

MSI-Forks has a continuing investment program to manufacture as close as possible to the customers it serves.

[pabster] 29/1/2013 13:50

amazing that this puppy is still trading a such a low P/E - next update should be soon?