Moneysupermarket.com Share Discussion Threads

[salpara111] 04/2/2015 13:04

I have learnt to ignore analysts and just go with the trend.
Look at how Greggs, has been bought up to a p/e of 20 and a divi of less than 3% to me that is crazy for a sandwich shop but that is where momentum has taken the share price
I have expectations of a special divi here so will hold on for the moment.
I would probably exit if it rose above 300p but happy to hold at the moment.
The whole Google competition thing is red herring. Google would never be allowed to run a similar product in Europe due to competition law which I imagine is why they have never sought to launch a service.

[eastbourne1982] 04/2/2015 12:15

For once I agree with the so called experts, it is expensive, should be on a PE ratio of around 14 - 16 imho.

[funkmasterp12] 04/2/2015 12:10

Numis flip-flopping again:

Following further share price appreciation (predominantly re-rating) and now even ignoring our view of the Google threat, we believe MONY is over-valued. We believe a 20x/19x adjusted FY15/16 P/E is expensive: i) vs. its own historical one year forward average (14.5x, stdev 2.8x), ii) vs. forecast EPS growth (FY14-16 CAGR: 7.6% our est., 7.9% consensus), iii) vs. online listed peers (trading at 0.94x peer group P/E multiple vs. 0.78x average) and iv) vs. recent transactions (Esure recently paid 9.7x P/E for the 50% of GoCompare it did not own). We re-iterate our negative recommendation (downgrading from reduce to sell due to the price strength) and note that we would now have a negative recommendation at the current price, even if we thought there was no Google risk.

Put simply, we think a c.20x P/E is the wrong multiple for a company with these current growth prospects and qualities. We think it is even more over-valued if you believe Google will at some point prove to be a disruptive competitor in the industry.

Expensive vs. historical averages: MONY's average 1 year forward P/E since IPO has been 14.5x, with a 2.8x standard deviation. It is currently trading on c.20x. Moreover, during c.2/3 of its listed life it operated with a substantial net cash position(currently near flat), probably biasing up the historical average P/E by 1-2 P/E points.

Expensive vs. forecast growth: Our FY14-16E EPS CAGR is 7.6% and consensus is 7.9%, putting the stock on a PE/g ratio of c.2.5x. Consensus estimates for Rightmove or Hargreaves Lansdown for example would put those companies on 1.75x/1.35x PE/gs.

Expensive vs. online peers: Since IPO, MONY has traded at a c.22% P/E discount to the average P/E of online peers Rightmove, IG and HL. It is currently trading at just a c.6% discount. We think MONY is a lower quality business than this group, by virtue of being a transactional (rather than recurring fee driven) model and through a lower operating margin (lower margin of safety: MONY c.35% currently vs. peers c.64%).There is nothing inherently "wrong" with this model, we just do not think it is as valuable.

[isis] 04/2/2015 09:42

Traffic all good for all three sites on Alexa and ad gone Viral.

They seem to come out cleaner than other comparison sites and I use themself as I find them to best.

Expect shorting and profit taking here.

[salpara111] 04/2/2015 09:22

Pull back doubtless due to the non news yesterday about price comparison websites making commission from their business.....imagine that.... a business taking commission for generating new customers!
As I mentioned in a previous post Moneysupermarket is OFGEM accredited unlike the other big players.
The business has grown revenue at a double digit rate and pays a decent divi so for me it is worth hanging onto for the moment.

[eastbourne1982] 04/2/2015 08:43

Why would you add ?? This company is hardly good value at the growth rate it is now limited to. At £2.55 it looks expensive to me.

[deadly] 04/2/2015 08:37

Pull back today. No news? Good time to add perhaps.

[isis] 29/1/2015 10:26

New ad got nearly a million hits.

[adelwire2] 24/1/2015 02:32

Gd to see share price on move upwards. Gd company but anyone aware of why this decent rise?

[salpara111] 21/1/2015 15:34

Very interesting.
I did not realise that OFGEM published a list of accredited price comparison websites and even more interestingly neither Gocompare nor Comparethemarket are on the list but Moneysupermarket is!
I have looked at exiting my holding here at 250 but price momentum seems to be taking this up quickly so I may well hold back for now.

[salpara111] 16/1/2015 20:54

Solid day in the end.
Solid growth and divi will keep me here for a while.

[jeffcranbounre] 16/1/2015 19:32

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Moneysupermarket.com #MONY
GlaxoSmithKline #GSK
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JD Sports #JD.
HSBC #HSBA
Google #GOOG
Standard Chartered #STAN
Vedanta Resources #VED
MyCelx Technologies #MYXR
IG Group #IGG
Shire #SHP
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[isis] 16/1/2015 16:29

Wouldn't have said this was an obvious short.

Not sure why you're telling us we don't get scared!

lol

[eastbourne1982] 16/1/2015 16:25

Good day in the end, up strongly with the European market, interesting to see if this breaks out, will then monitor hoping to short the top.

[isis] 16/1/2015 14:35

This ad might turn a few heads!! lol

[isis] 16/1/2015 14:27

They beat forecasts:-

[isis] 16/1/2015 13:12

For dividends they remain reasonable value.

Competition is a factor and Google is often mentioned but I think Google would have issues if they tried to drive comparison quotes to their own sites.

[eastbourne1982] 16/1/2015 12:38

Fair enough isis, would you be a buyer at £2.29 though ?

[isis] 16/1/2015 12:34

Eastbourne - they don't have much cash to hand as they pay it all out in Dividends - they are very cash generative and no debt.

Profits of £95m suggests a P/E of around 13 - look at other internet leaders and they are much higher multiples so not a straightforward short.

[eastbourne1982] 16/1/2015 10:49

Seems overpriced to me, growth is limited here now, I've got it on my radar to go short however I'd like to short around £2.35.

Net cash at £10.5m seems ridiculous to me, not a lot in the locker is it.

Can't think too many reasons why you would pay £2.28 a share, I'd say fair value would be around the £1.85 mark.

[isis] 16/1/2015 10:45

Double digit growth for Moneysupermarket.com
Jan 16, 2015 08:36 By Neil Hodgson
Good fourth quarter sets up comparison website for strong year

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Peter Plumb, Moneysupermarket.com chief executive.Peter Plumb, Moneysupermarket.com chief executive.
Price comparison site Moneysupermarket.com expects double digit growth in annual revenues and earnings, it said today.

In a trading update for the year to December 31, the Chester-based business said full year revenues should grow by around 10% to £248m, while adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) is expected to increase by around 13% to £95m.

It said its financial position remains strong and by the year end it had net cash of £10.5m.

The update said trading in the fourth quarter saw revenues from insurance, and money from credit cards and loans, continued to grow.

Motor insurance rates flattened, which is increasing demand from motorists looking to compare prices and features.

Banks and loan providers are competing hard to attract customers for credit cards, the update said, and, as expected, home services and the group’s MoneySavingExpert.com arm suffered a fall in revenues compared with the same quarter in 2013 when very high demand for energy switching gave an uplift of £7m after energy price increases.

Chief executive Peter Plumb said today: “This has been a good final quarter to another strong year.

“I’m particularly pleased to see our core insurance and money channels in healthy growth as a result of the savings we offer and the help we give customers to choose the best products for them.

“MoneySavingExpert and TravelSuperMarket are thriving. MoneySuperMarket group is set to save more people more money in 2015 thanks to our investment programme.”

[salpara111] 16/1/2015 10:04

Solid statement and little market reaction.
I will continue to hold as I am looking for around 250p before I would consider exiting.

[grabers] 23/12/2014 15:25

This is going top break out from its 5 year high very shortly. Still an undervalued stock

[don carter] 22/11/2014 10:48

Agreed Salpara111.