Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[jimbowen30] 15/12/2016 16:56

Atlantic

You're right it's been a long time. I agree with what you say and the million dollar question is the timing of when people lose confidence in Central banks. Anyone who needs their capital in the next year or two should not be putting it in gold, stocks or bonds for that matter.

Global debt continues to increase and it's taking more and more debt for each $ of GDP. Trees don't grow to the sky but who knows where the limit is.

I attended the mines and money show the week before last. The highlight of the show was a presentation from Grant Williams who writes 'Things that make you hmmmm' and is an adviser to Vulpes investment management in Singapore. It was literally one of the best presentations I have heard. The gist of it was that whilst everyone is assuming things will be good under Trump, don't jump to conclusions. He sees a scenario where the Trump infrastructure spending, inflation and rising debt pushes yields on US Treasuries up. China is lowering their exposure to Treasuries and we are likely to see an abundant supply over the next ten years. Rising yields will led to a huge issue with US debt payments. China is also likely to start trading oil is yuan, which is a game changer. All this leads to downward pressure on the dollar and is very bullish for gold long term.

Will post link to slides if I receive anything, as well worth a listen. Sure it will be on YouTube at some stage too

[atlantic57] 15/12/2016 16:21

Jim Bowen we have exchanged posts over 10 years i believe.
i recognise the validity of the intellectual argument you are making.

However to date:

a) Central bankers have succeeded in keeping the balls in the air.

b) All the predictions that were made about a Trump victory have proved to be complete
nonsense.

c) The truth is that the emperor has been naked for years. Numerouse countries are
bankrupt and insolvent especially when you add on unfunded liabilities..im talking G20 nations.

The truth is that no one has any real idea when markets will roll over.Yes it may be next week next year but it could be years and years away. As for golds day in the sun the same applies.

[cncventure] 15/12/2016 11:17

Everyone is watching the US and Janet Yellen, but I think it's China (using Hong Kong and Taiwan as proxies) and Japan that should be the focus.

Commodities don't go pop until the world's biggest buyer (China) hits the brakes (at the moment it's stimulating like crazy).

But china's 10 year bond is up 65 basis points in 6 weeks!

Kind of a big deal IMHO.

Gets real hard as a Chinese property developer to sell a property for $500k to $1m to a chinese factory worker earnings between $10 and $25k when interest rates start jumping up like that...

As Warren's old saying goes - you only get to find out who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out. Looks like the tide has turned, but so far the water has only drained to waist deep...

Taiwan property transactions and prices seem to be rolling over... if it continues in 6 to 12 months it's going to become increasingly obvious that there are some bad debts in the system and trust in the financial system will deteriorate again.

Owning miners like MML (and other low debt decent margin gold miners) at these prices will look like a bargain in 24 months time.

But I'm expecting A LOT of volatility between now and then (so going to try and buy well and sit tight).

[jimbowen30] 15/12/2016 08:56

Polaris

Good post. The key point is that the global economy is massively over indebted and can't tolerate much higher rates. The US has $20 trillion of debt and the interest on this debt would start to take up a big part of the budget.

At some stage gold and the gold stocks will recover strongly but sentiment is pretty negative right now. The bigger picture hasn't changed imo.

[polaris] 15/12/2016 08:46

cncventure,

I don't disagree with you in the long term but right now, MML has broken support, flagged some new delays to the upgrade process in the last presentation, has costs above the current pog and pog is in a downward trend. MML have also flagged that production will be back end of the FY-loaded (so Jan-Jun17). I don't think the HY numbers will look good at all and gold looks like it is heading for $1060 and possibly lower, at least in the short term.

How the US economy deals with the 0.25% interest rate increase will be crucial here. Yellen's words to me suggest that further rises are on the backburner for now. That could also lead to a base price in gold being established if it becomes clear that interest rates may have to come down again as the system is screwed. That would lead to move of cash to safe havens. The bond market is a horrible mess but somehow seems to be sailing on. If we see that break down in 2017 then it will also be good for safe havens.

I sold my position in MML progressively when we broke the 60c mark, as i would rather sit on the cash and look for a more positive general environment for PMs. Chart says 30s are back on the cards and i cant find a good reason in recent news and presentations to argue with that.

I'll keep an eye on this and look for a suitable entry point. As long as Timler can deliver in this FY then the costs will indeed finally start to fall, de-blocking of haulage will be achieved and plant will be better utilised. The drilling programme from level 8 is also necessary as MML has not replaced reserves on the balance sheet and, even though the gold is obviously there as its a vein operation, most investors don't look into the details and will just see 3-5 years LoM. I think Timler knows his onions but there have been so many false dawns since the glory days of the rise from a few p to several GBPs that almost no-one will believe the improvement even when it comes. That will be the time to load up again for the new ride north.

If you have the cash to pick them up and leave them in the bottom drawer then fine as a few c here and there at the bottom will not make much overall difference. I like to margin trade and so those few c can be very lucrative... or painful.

regards,

Paul

[cncventure] 15/12/2016 05:37

I picked up some MML at these levels. In my opinion its the best value its been in a LONG time.

Rising interest rates are not the friend of a heavily indebted governments, households and businesses around the world, with a slowing china, most governments are still running deficits and most economies are being increasingly weighed down by their aging populations and their unpayable commitments to them.

I finally think we might begin to see some cracks open up in mainstream markets in the coming weeks and months and it will force more market participants both at a government, corporate and household level to get real about our present situation.

All the while MML sold off again today, yet it has a significant amount of cash on its balance sheet (rather than being heavily indebted), is about to become very free cash flow positive in the coming months, in an industry where the supply of gold from mines is already in decline and I suspect demand for gold will increase globally when savers around the world realise that their choice will quickly become one between bonds that are defaulted on or restructured such that the repayments will be in monies not worth what it is today...

Higher interest rates hasten the process.

The setup is becoming increasingly obvious (especially for myself as an Australian who is watching the local economy slow with its eyewatering household debt levels and China who I suspect will soon find itself not needing Australian commodities to the degree it once did in its industrialization phase)...

I think investors in MML at these levels will be rewarded HANDSOMELY for their conviction.

[jimbowen30] 14/12/2016 21:26

HUI gold stocks index got smashed today

[nielsc] 14/12/2016 21:23

The interest rate hike has just seen the cost of new debt double. Doesn't look like the Dow will reach 20000.$63 spread between comex and sge. Will see if that changes once the sge opens.Cheers,Niels

[nielsc] 13/12/2016 17:06

Peak Euphoria. That sums it up for the market.



" S&P trading at 25x actual GAAP P/E"

" we showed that the Dow was the most overbought in the past 20 years"

The DJI has risen over 11% since Trump won. I reckon we will see it above 20000 before the avalanche of selling starts. This rally is based on hope.

Cheers,
Niels

[atlantic57] 12/12/2016 18:53

Edj I think edelson understanding of human nature and economic cycles is second to none.In the past he has made some good calls on turning points in the cycles
For both gold and oil.

However his recent record is an unmitigated disaster.
However I do like the fact that when he gets things wrong he does not offer bs,
He does take responsibility.

[jimbowen30] 12/12/2016 18:39

Chip
Thanks for your table. Valuations are just one part of it though. IMO the quality of management is by far the most important factor. Compare Randgold for example to MML for example. Mark Bristow and his team have a track record for delivering and make MML look like Cowboys in comparison. I don't own Randgold but I would rather own a PM stock with world class management even if it is on a much higher multiple than some of the junk companies in the sector (I'm not including MML). The good thing about this sector is that there aren't many outstanding management teams with good track records, so you can focus and invest in a handful of companies.

[edjge2] 12/12/2016 18:07

I'm quite impressed with Edelson myself but he does get it wrong. Currently touting 1000 gold. And oil to collapse next yes on non collaboration.
Gary too ignores events but goes on charts and pretty good mondays will be available late tonight, this was weekend's
hxxps://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

[atlantic57] 11/12/2016 20:08

Hi Blue,
I hope you are right I have been waiting for the piper to be paid but so far
Central bankers have succeeded in keeping the show on the road.i have been a big fan of lary edelson.He has very accurately predicted the coming together of various economic and geo political cycles.

Howvever he tipped mining shares and gold literally just before the us election so now has large amounts of egg on his face.

[bluelynx] 11/12/2016 19:52

Hi altlantic

I believe this Trump exuberance will end soon when, the reality that we still have massive debts, rising interest rates, extremely over value equity markets etc.

Hopefully PM will then improve.

[chipperfrd] 10/12/2016 21:58

I have now completed the Value table (included below).
I intend to update it regularly with market moves and fresh financial reports.
It will be contained in Table 2 in the header of my gold stock comparison thread "CHIP".

Table 2: VALUE Composite Table of PM Producers. TOTAL = relative under/over valuation.

Updated 10/12/2016
Stock name ...... Code .. PER . PBV . PSR . Ev/EBITDA .. PCF . TOTAL . Mult
Medusa .......... MML . ... 1 ... 3 ... 2 ......... 1 .... 1 .... 9 .. 9.9
Trans Siberian .. TSG . ... 3 ... 6 ... 4 ......... 3 .... 4 ... 20 .. 4.1
Caledonia ....... CMCL. ... 4 ... 9 ... 3 ......... 3 .... 3 ... 21 .. 4.5
Harmony ......... HMY . ... 8 ... 4 ... 2 ......... 5 .... 3 ... 22 .. 4.3
Highland ........ HGM . ... 4 ... 6 ... 6 ......... 6 .... 3 ... 25 .. 3.5
Serabi .......... SRB . .. 12 ... 6 ... 3 ......... 3 .... 3 ... 27 .. 3.8
Petropavlovsk ... POG . .. 10 ... 6 ... 2 ......... 6 .... 5 ... 29 .. 3.1
Goldfields ...... GV .. ... 9 .. 11 ... 5 ......... 6 .... 5 ... 35 .. 2.5
Resolute ........ RSG . ... 3 .. 20 ... 5 ......... 4 .... 4 ... 35 .. 3.3
Anglo Asian ..... AAZ . .. 27 ... 4 ... 2 ......... 3 .... 1 ... 37 .. 7.1
Centamin ........ CEY . ... 5 .. 12 .. 10 ......... 6 .... 6 ... 38 .. 2.2
Kirkland Lake ... KL .. ... 8 .. 15 ... 7 ......... 6 .... 5 ... 40 .. 2.3
Mandalay ........ MND . .. 19 ... 9 ... 4 ......... 5 .... 4 ... 41 .. 2.7
Avocet .......... AVM . ... 1 .. 33 ... 0 ......... 6 .... 1 ... 42 .. 9.2
Patagonia ....... PGD . ... 6 .. 20 ... 3 ......... 6 .... 8 ... 43 .. 2.1
Yamana .......... AUY . .. 20 ... 5 ... 5 ......... 9 .... 4 ... 43 .. 2.8
Silver Standard . SSRI. .. 15 ... 7 ... 6 ......... 7 .... 9 ... 43 .. 2.0
OceanaGold ...... OGC . ... 8 .. 11 ... 9 ......... 9 .... 8 ... 45 .. 1.8
Hochschild ...... HOC . .. 14 .. 15 ... 6 ......... 6 .... 5 ... 45 .. 2.2
Shanta .......... SHG . .. 33 ... 7 ... 2 ......... 2 .... 2 ... 46 .. 5.2
Pan African ..... PAF . ... 7 .. 18 ... 6 ......... 9 ... 11 ... 50 .. 1.6
St Barbara ...... SBM . ... 4 .. 32 ... 6 ......... 5 .... 4 ... 51 .. 2.6
AngloGold ....... AU .. .. 21 .. 14 ... 4 ......... 8 .... 5 ... 51 .. 2.2
Orosur .......... OMI . .. 33 ... 4 ... 1 ......... 8 .... 6 ... 52 .. 3.7
SilverCorp ...... SVM . .. 14 .. 14 .. 11 ......... 9 .... 6 ... 53 .. 1.8
Regis Res ....... RRL . ... 7 .. 25 ... 9 ......... 7 .... 7 ... 54 .. 1.8
Troy Res ........ TRY . .. 33 ... 5 ... 5 ......... 8 .... 3 ... 54 .. 3.1
Tahoe Res ....... TAHO. .. 11 .. 10 .. 13 ........ 10 ... 16 ... 60 .. 1.4
Pan American .... PAAS. .. 14 .. 16 .. 11 ........ 10 ... 11 ... 62 .. 1.3
Acasia .......... ACA . .. 33 .. 10 ... 7 ......... 6 .... 6 ... 63 .. 1.9
Newcrest ........ NCM . .. 19 .. 13 .. 11 ........ 13 .... 9 ... 65 .. 1.4
Gold Res ........ GORO. .. 14 .. 20 .. 10 ........ 10 ... 11 ... 65 .. 1.3
Coeur Mining .... CDE . .. 11 .. 23 ... 8 ........ 13 ... 12 ... 67 .. 1.2
Northern Star ... NST . ... 8 .. 40 ... 9 ......... 5 .... 5 ... 68 .. 2.0
Newmont ......... NEM . .. 33 .. 11 ... 9 ........ 11 .... 6 ... 70 .. 1.6
Evolution ....... EVN . .. 33 .. 15 ... 7 ........ 11 .... 5 ... 71 .. 1.8
Barrick ......... ABX . .. 34 .. 16 ... 7 ......... 8 .... 7 ... 72 .. 1.6
Hecla ........... HL .. .. 21 .. 14 .. 12 ........ 15 ... 10 ... 73 .. 1.2
Silver Lake ..... SLR . .. 41 .. 15 ... 5 ......... 7 .... 6 ... 73 .. 1.9
Kingsgate ....... KCN . .. 33 ... 5 ... 1 ........ 33 .... 1 ... 73 .. 6.5
Sandstorm ....... SAND. .. 10 .. 10 .. 32 ........ 10 ... 15 ... 77 .. 1.4
S&P 500 avge .... S&P . .. 11 .. 25 ... 7 ........ 14 ... 23 ... 80 .. 1.0
Klondex ......... KDX . .. 23 .. 19 .. 13 ........ 13 ... 12 ... 81 .. 1.1
Avino ........... ASM . .. 36 ... 8 ... 6 ......... 9 ... 26 ... 85 .. 1.4
Endevour Silver . EXK . .. 22 .. 30 ... 9 ........ 12 ... 14 ... 87 .. 1.0
Agnico Eagle .... AEM . .. 38 .. 16 .. 13 ........ 13 .... 9 ... 89 .. 1.2
Endevour Gold ... EDV . .. 33 .. 15 ... 8 ........ 18 ... 15 ... 89 .. 1.0
Randgold ........ RRS . .. 19 .. 17 .. 21 ........ 18 ... 17 ... 92 .. 0.9
Fortuna ......... FSM . .. 28 .. 18 .. 14 ........ 14 ... 23 ... 96 .. 0.9
Eldorado ........ EGO . .. 33 ... 5 .. 11 ........ 21 ... 27 ... 97 .. 1.4
Silver Wheaton .. SLW . .. 19 .. 14 .. 32 ........ 21 ... 15 .. 103 .. 0.9
First Majestic .. AG .. .. 33 .. 20 .. 17 ........ 15 ... 19 .. 105 .. 0.8
Fresnillo ....... FRES. .. 19 .. 38 .. 21 ........ 16 ... 13 .. 108 .. 0.8
Avesoro ......... AUE . .. 33 ... 7 ... 6 ........ 33 ... 33 .. 112 .. 1.0
Polymetal ....... POLY. ... 7 .. 50 .. 12 ........ 11 ... 32 .. 113 .. 0.9
Goldbridges ..... GBGR. .. 33 .. 13 .. 13 ........ 33 ... 33 .. 125 .. 0.5
Goldcorp ........ GG .. .. 80 ... 7 .. 11 ........ 14 ... 15 .. 126 .. 1.3
China Nonferr ... CNG . .. 33 .. 38 .. 33 ........ 33 .... 2 .. 139 .. 2.9
Excellon ........ EXN . .. 33 .. 30 .. 15 ........ 33 ... 33 .. 144 .. 0.3
Alexco .......... AXU . .. 33 .. 12 .. 38 ........ 33 ... 33 .. 149 .. 0.4
Royal Gold ...... RGLD. .. 33 .. 17 .. 41 ........ 41 ... 26 .. 157 .. 0.6
Franco Nevada ... FNV . .. 34 .. 21 .. 55 ........ 25 ... 22 .. 158 .. 0.7
Kinross ......... KGC . . 139 ... 8 ... 4 ......... 7 .... 4 .. 161 .. 2.6
Americas ........ USA . .. 33 .. 10 ... 5 ........ 85 ... 33 .. 166 .. 0.8
Perseus ......... PRU . .. 33 ... 7 ... 8 ....... 138 ... 19 .. 205 .. 1.2
Great Panther ... GPL . .. 33 .. 35 .. 16 ....... 121 ... 29 .. 234 .. 0.4
Beadell ......... BDR . .. 15 .. 15 ... 6 ........ 10 . 3492 . 3539 .. 1.0

Metrics scores are rounded to whole numbers to reduce table size, so Total may not appear as exact sum.
S&P 500 averages for the 5 metrics are included in order to provide a calibration to a general stock index.
MULT is the gain required to bring each stock into line with the S&P averages (a bit 'tongue in cheek').

Chip (10/12/16





I think it will prove useful (at least to me) as it corroborates my existing method.
Obviously, low valuations can remain as they are subject to market sentiment and perceived risk levels. Likewise, stocks at lofty valuations can still be eagerly supported for similar but opposite reasons.
Chip

[augustusgloop] 09/12/2016 22:57

arja

98p - see the chart in the header

[atlantic57] 09/12/2016 22:18

Chip thanks for your thoughts.
Blue that is a fascinating link.The Dow looks way overbought all based on what Trump
Is going to do before he has done anything.

Let us see what the first quarter of 2017 brings..

[chipperfrd] 09/12/2016 20:05

Presumably, there is a limited amount of across-bank communications within the HSBC investment banking!

HSBC are right at the centre of PM price manipulation. So I doubt that the analyst who penned that article had checked what was likely to happen as the highly shorted December Comex contracts loomed large in November.
Chip

[arja] 09/12/2016 19:42

the MML chart tells the story and now 50 cents ( 30p) . A really disastrous investment sadly and I can not remember the price at time it was delisted in UK . I suppose the smart ones holding at THAT time got out on last day it was listed here .

[atlantic57] 07/12/2016 15:43

I'm Sorry Niels !

Yes a number of commentators are predicting exactly That.

However back in the mid 1990's it was obvious that the dot com bubble would end with a bang ! However the madness continued for many years before the child spoke and it was acknowledged that the emperor was naked.

Therefore it is anyone's guess how long we have got and it could be many years!!

[nielsc] 07/12/2016 15:15

Atlantic,

It is Niels.

Not sure if it was you that posted about Jim Sinclair recently. Finally rather than predict when a big bang might happen he said

“Markets do not exist anymore . . . and you can’t time what does not exist.”
Sinclair contends a huge transition is underway, and the old system cannot be fixed. A new one is on the way, and the old one is going to end with a bang. "

Cheers,
Niels

[atlantic57] 07/12/2016 15:10

Neil C

The main emails i receive at the moment are from

a) Larry Edelson

b) Casey Research

c) Occasionally Jim Sinclair

[nielsc] 07/12/2016 14:51

atlantic,

It that just my posts ;-)

It has for Indian population of 1.25b.

I think the recent crash in gold has been overdone and it will start climbing a wall of worry again. Never keen to describe anything as exploding higher. Was that a King World article you read? ;-)

To be fair all the recent events were deemed positive for gold, yet the opposite happened. I would say the shaky banking scenario unfolding in Italy should be positive for gold, but it looks like money is just flowing into the gold old US dollar.

You are doing the classic things so many people do to my name.

Cheers,
Niels

[atlantic57] 07/12/2016 10:49

Neil c i am being Bombarded on a daily basis that Gold is about to explode higher.