Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 02/2/2017 16:32

Dek/Atlantic,

re the drilling results (as you suggested I might comment).

Worth remembering that these are down-hole widths of mineralisation encountered as the drill intersects narrow veins - so rarely actual true widths!

This is important, as narrow veins have physical limits for practical mining. eg. 'shrink stopes' have a minimum of c. 1.25m and 'room & pillar' stopes have a minimum of c. 1.5m at Co-O.

From the Dec16 quarter drill results we can see that the higher level holes (ie L2 and L3 ones) were all drilled horizontally. So the down-hole widths are likely (but not definitely) going to be close to the actual widths of the intercepts. However, if we assume these are for room & pillar stoping then we must also assume a minimum mining width of 1.5m. Hence the stated results would, after applying dilution for sterile rock on either side of mineralised ore, translate to a head grade of approximately the following when all this sterile rock is unavoidably included:

L2-16W-003 0.45m @ 137.6g/t translates to c. 41.3g/t
L2-17W-001 0.25m @ 12.2g/t translates to c. 2g/t
L2-19W-001 1m @ 4.47g/t translates to c. 3g/t
L2-24W-002 0.45m @ 7.07g/t translates to c. 2.1g/t

L3-37W-001 0.9m @ 7.6g/t translates to c. 4.6g/t

But worth remembering that the veins shrink, expand and split according to the original cracks and faulting in the native rocks that existed when the mineralised fluids first boiled up millions of years ago, so a single intercept may not represent the average width over the full 50m elevation of a mining stope.

The L8 holes were drilled at a variety of dip angles and may well have intersected veins suitable for shrink stoping. However, for simplicity I will assume a minimum mining width of 1.5m for all these holes.

Rather than list all these 24 L8 holes I have just averaged the dilution and resulting ore head grade from a quick and dirty spreadsheet and get the following:

Average ore dilution of c. 47% resulting in an average ore head grade of 10g/t.

Clearly, the final mined ore (some years hence!) is likely to be somewhat different but the above average of c. 10g/t does appear to be in accord with historic results for Co-O, so the mine would appear to be providing reasonably consistent potential ore as it prepares to mine at ever lower levels.

Chip

[deka1] 02/2/2017 14:54

A release from Oceanagold today 2 Feb

2 February 2017

OCEANAGOLD PROVIDES COMMENTS ON RECENT PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT PRESS CONFERENCE

(MELBOURNE) OceanaGold Corporation (TSX/ASX: OGC) (the “Company”;) notes that a press conference held today by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (“DENR”), Secretary Gina Lopez named OceanaGold’s Didipio operation as the subject of a proposed suspension order citing alleged declining agricultural production. No further details of such an order were forthcoming at the press conference. We understand Didipio was one of 6 mining operations listed for proposed suspension, with another 23 mining operations listed for closure.

The Company confirms that it has not received any formal suspension order from the DENR. Accordingly mining and processing activities are continuing unabated at the Didipio Mine. There is no legal basis for any proposed suspension. The Didipio operation is not in violation of any laws, rules or regulations, and the operation is not posing any threat to public, security, health, safety or otherwise.

Mick Wilkes, President and CEO said, “This decision announced by the DENR Secretary is unjustified nor has any basis in law. We have not received any show cause notice from the DENR nor have we received a suspension order. Should we ultimately receive a suspension order as suggested today we have very strong legal grounds to have it overturned.”

“Our Didipio Mine is a partnership with the Government of the Philippines through the Office of the President and has a strong social license to operate. We are a large employer of Filipino nationals, and our Operation delivers significant benefits to the local communities. As proof of this, Didipio was announced as the joint winner of the Presidential Mineral Industry Environmental Award in recognition of our exemplary performance in safe and environmentally responsible mining” added Mr. Wilkes.


- ENDS -

For further information, please contact:

Investor Relations Sam Pazuki Tel: [phone]

Jeffrey Sansom Tel: [phone]

Media Relations Jill Thomas Tel: [phone]

[roguetreader] 02/2/2017 14:00

Oceana's Philippines mine is Open Pit transitioning to underground. As I understand it it is the Open Pit that's causing them problems. However,the unease around mining generally in the Philippines doesn't help MML's current woes.
RT

[hectorp] 02/2/2017 13:22

speed - just read it too... half of all nickel mines, and a large gold mine, not Medusa. Not good.

[stevea171] 02/2/2017 12:13

>>>>>chapv 2 Feb '17 - 10:18 - 36957 of 36958
>>>>>To my knowledge Chip has never offered advice only information

Yes, biased information which is misrepresentation. Misrepresentation because only positives are discussed, the other side is both suppressed and ignored ....

Speedsgh. This is the headline in Auz:
Manila also suspended operations at another five mines, including the country's top gold mine operated by Australia's Oceanagold.

btw. Don't expect Chipperfrd to mention or comment on the high country risk of mining in The Phillipines for Medusa as he has, to my knowledge, not mentioned this subject once since the new government implemented policy changes from July last year.
Why should a 'glass half full' guy (more like 'glass full') broach any subject if it gets in the way of profits with his investments?

[chapv] 02/2/2017 10:18

To my knowledge Chip has never offered advice only information we all make our own investment decisions, don't blame others you pressed the buy button!

[stevea171] 01/2/2017 18:06

Hi Justin.
Thanks for your observations which I've just noticed. Everyone has their own point of view which is the basis of markets and life. To a casual observer and even yourself all may not be as it seems here. My view of this MML saga will remain as I have posted. Chipperfrd does a lot of research and number crunching on many companies which I have not commented on but am obviously aware of and many find valuable. All of that is separate as far as I'm concerned from Medusa.

Chipperfrd has an infallible, oracle, cult like status with some, incl some on this Board. Few dare to challenge him. Obviously his support of this company is in tatters but that is the company's own doing and circumstances. When the story changes over the past 5 or 6 years compared to the early years of success here, the story from him unfortunately has never changed and this BB is engineered to promote his view with the banning of Elban (now Augustusgloop) to the other thread and last year his attempt to get rid of me when I would not toe the 'party line'. ie criticism of the company is not to be tolerated. Justified or not.

I was also caught up in the de-listing saga of MML from the LSE and likewise chose to leave things as they were but that was a mistake for me also only resolved when I sold out last year where alternative choices are easier to come by.

I have Australian and British citizenship and lived there for 23 years. For many years I have lived in the UK but have family in Auz and a property there but am out of touch with the investment scene which is constantly changing.

As you know, like you, I have attended the MML Mayfair presentations for the last couple of years and asked plenty of questions but the answers are, not surprisingly, designed to convey the impression everything is under control and the PR is convincing that you should stay on board for better times. The final straw for me was the new CEO's RNS a few weeks ago late reporting he was going to miss the 2017 FY production guidance which was supposed to be set in stone given the history of failed guidance and failed implementations here under previous management.

So since then I have resolved the situation personally by switching my ASX investment from MML to BLK - thanks very much for flagging it up a few weeks ago. I have finally got this woeful company out of my hair and out of my life after years of grief.
All the best with your investments and best wishes personally.

[ilostthelot] 01/2/2017 07:40

Looks to be finding a floor here.

If they continue to burn cash this Q like they did last Q they may well h need cash quite soon after. It's probably all in the price to be fair.

If they turn this around its dirt cheap here. The market won't be giving them a decent multiple until they restore Confidence.

[ilostthelot] 31/1/2017 23:28

Cheers to Chip and all the good guys that help us all with our investments including yourself Justin.

[justinjjbuk] 31/1/2017 23:13

Steve

I do sympathise with your frustration. I lost of large slug of money on MML before I bailed. Although I am now retired, I used to be a professional fund manager and am a CFA, so I can blame only myself. MML has not been my finest hour.

I think you are being rather harsh on Chip. I have found his posts over the years knowledgeable and useful. I am only 4 years into investing in gold mining stock (after 30 odd years in Japanese equities), so have been coming up my own learning curve. There are few mining stocks in Japan (only two, Sumitomo Metal Mining and Pacific Metals, spring to mind) so I have had to learn the technical and geo side of the mining industry from scratch. Posters like Chip have helped me up that learning curve.

From my experience in the investment industry, the best investors are those that can inoculate themselves from any affection towards the stocks they invest in. In short, you must act like an absolute TART. Profess love, but move on the moment another stock waves a bigger wad of cash at you.

Unfortunately, I got stuck in MML when it delisted from LSE and moved to ASX. TD told me that the procedure would be seamless and take a few weeks. It was anything but and by the time my shares got resisted on ASX, the MML story had imploded.

But at the end of the day, this was my fault and poor risk management on my part. First, I shouldn't have believed anyone telling me that something is going to be 'seamless' and, second. even if it was 'seamless' and had taken only 3 weeks, 3 weeks if an awfully long time in gold mine investing and anything can happen (just look at the chart for $1 billion + cap New Gold (NGD)on TSX over the last few days, a bullet I only just managed to avoid). What I should have done with MML is sold out and bought back in on ASX and paid the commission. Then, when the MML story soured, I would have lost big but not lost as much as I did. You learn from your mistakes. Won't do that one again.

Going back to Chip, it is posters like him that have found all the good stocks I have invested in over the last 12 months, a period when I have had my best performance in my entire investment career. Almost every stock I have liked over the last year, like MOY, RMS, RSG and BLK has had a Chip-like poster who knows the stock back to front, the history of the stock going back to the end of time and all the technical aspects of the geo and drill results.

But these posters will never ring the bell and tell you when to get out. Almost by definition, these types of posters are longer term investors and have a strong affection toward the stocks they have spent so much time researching and know so much about (no disrespect to Chip, who may have a great long term track record across his entire portfolio).

My gut sense is that there is no such thing as a long-term investment in the gold mining sector. The stories can turn on a dime. And, yes, there are exceptions like CEY on LSE and NST on ASX, but these are exceptions that prove the rule. And this rule applies in spades for new frontier miners. Just look at the performance of the new frontier ASX small cap names over the last 12-18 months:

MML: Costs totally out of control since moving from open pit to underground and all new prospects disappeared
KRM: Mine sprung a leak in Indonesia and company went bust
KCN: Thai government says "what is yours is now ours"
TRY: Unstable pit in Guyana, costs out of control, burning through cash
PRU: Just can't seem to get AISC under control at Edikan in Ghana; company burning through cash at a spectacular rate
SBM: Almost bankrupted by its PNG foray. Saved by Gwalia operation in Aus

While SBM came back from the dead to be the star of 2015/16 (due to its Aus mine), and another Aus name, RSG, has done well in West Africa, the overall hit rate is awful.

But there is one thing that links all these doggy names apart from them being in frontier areas: I have been invested in every single one! Yet I have had my best period of performance ever. The reason for this is at the first hint of trouble I am out (except with MML because I got stuck). And, like a good tart, I am always, always looking to trade up to a better story even before there is a hint of trouble (my current favourite is still BLK on ASX).

The other thing in common with these stocks is that the knowledgeable Chip-like posters who led me into these stocks never sounded the bell to get me out. So I will propose a toast to Chip and all those like him who are great sources of where to find a BUY. But when it comes to SELL, you are on your own.

Justin

[atlantic57] 31/1/2017 18:17

Thanks Dek !

[deka1] 31/1/2017 17:52

Hi Atlantic, I was mech commissioning till I retired 8 years ago,hydrocarbon recovery mainly,never worked in mining, but the drill results from the latest level 8 holes look good to my untrained eye, from 24 holes 6 are returning gold grades of under 10gt,18 are returning grades above 10gt with 2 holes well over 100gt, perhaps chip could help to make more sense of it

[atlantic57] 31/1/2017 14:46

Hello Dek i understand from our past discussions that you have an engineering background.i failed to interpret the reports on vgm when they were carrying out underground drilling.

Do you have a technical view on mml underground drilling report.

cheers

[deka1] 30/1/2017 16:23

Co-O MINE PRODUCTION  Production: 17,350 ounces at average head grade of 4.75 g/t gold (Sep 2016 qtr: 21,157 ounces at average grade of 5.26 g/t gold).  Cash Costs: of US$625 per ounce (Sep 2016 qtr: US$592 per ounce).  All-In-Sustaining-Costs (“ASIC”): US$1,498 per ounce (Sep 2016 qtr: US$1,334 per ounce).  Mill Performance: gold recovery averaged 94.2% (Sep 2016 qtr 94.5%).  Mine Development: Total advance was 5,758 metres of horizontal and vertical development (Sep 2016 qtr: 4,960 metres).  Mine Infrasturcture Projects: o E15 Servie Shaft: Shaft, headframe and Winders commsioned with 9.2 metres of sinking completed. o Main Levels and Winzes: Development on Level 9 totaled 409 metres. Level 10 development was 6.5 metres to stub out the level. o Mine Ventilation: Upgrade completed, fans commsioned. Second fan idling while replacing defective vibration monitoring hardware. o Mine De-Watering: Level 8 chamber develop and ground support completed. Removing broken rock, pumps received.  Revised Production Guidance (2016/17): The production guidance was revised down to a range of between 85,000 to 95,000 ounces at ASIC of between US$1,250 to US$1,350 per ounce of gold.
Co-O MINE EXPLORATION  Underground resource drilling o Reserve drilling from Levels 2, 4 and 9 targeting the Royal, Great Hamish, Central, Jeremy, Breccia, Catto and Don Pedro East Veins aggregating 1,965 metres were completed. o Resource and Definition drilling from Levels 2, 3 and 8 this quarter totalled 13,585 metres. o Results from the resource drilling include 2.35 metres @ 56.96 g/t Au, 1.35 metres @ 32.84 g/t Au and 1.50 metres @ 14.44 g/t Au.
REGIONAL EXPLORATION  Near Mine Exploration (MinEX): continued with on-going reconnaissance activities within the mine environments.
COAL EXPLORATION  No field work was undertaken this quarter. All data for the completion of a Scoping Study were received during this quarter.
CORPORATE & FINANCIALS  Total cash and bullion on hand at the end of the quarter of approximately US$12.9 million (approximately US$19.6 million at 30 Sep 2016).  On 9 January 2017, Mr Boyd Timler, then Medusa’s CEO joined the Board of Medusa and was appointed Managing Director.

[ilostthelot] 30/1/2017 13:58

Thanks Eintracht.

[eintracht] 30/1/2017 10:46

Quarterly report out.

[chipperfrd] 28/1/2017 14:17

Thanks RT and DD, I have been a fan of Grant Williams for years so it would make perfect sense for me to follow him in this RV initiative.

I will let you know how I get on.
Chip

[roguetreader] 28/1/2017 13:55

Chip
Off topic re RV I believe you still get a week free trial, so you can cancel if you don't believe it's value. There is a significant back catalogue of videos now available going back two or three years, where a lot of the older ones I believe are still worth a watch and relevant. Gold is a hot topic and widely covered, but RV just about covers every area of the macro and to a lesser degree micro areas of the economy and to be honest it is the other areas I have found most interesting. My most recent favourite for instance was an interview with a guy called Michael Oliver on 'Momentum Analysis' which involved using a series of methods and tools for identifying trends in different markets. Enjoy if you subscribe. All the best.
RT

[doobydave] 28/1/2017 12:29

I can back those views on RealVision. They label it disruptive technology in the financial space - perhaps a slight exaggeration but not far wrong.

[chipperfrd] 28/1/2017 10:46

That is useful feedback about RealVisionTV from you two. I hesitated over the subscriber button a few months back - sounds like I need to get back to it!
Chip

[roguetreader] 27/1/2017 18:28

Allyp
I subscribe to REalVision and enjoyed the Fleckenstein interview this morning. One of my better moves subscribing to RV, I love the variety and breadth of subject matter and interviewees, well worth the investment IMO.
RT