Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[rrr] 01/3/2017 12:20

I have never seen a straw better clutched deka, good work!

[deka1] 01/3/2017 11:57

BACKend loaded I think means closer to 95kozs rather than 85kozs,so to achieve that they must be thinking that the shaft will be completed pretty soon,
If this turns out to be the case, they will have 3 months of near full production tonnage,with better grades going through the mill,IF they get say 2400tons/day through the mill (best scenario)at 6.5 grms/ton on 6 day working,then over the last qtr that's around 36kozs.
THIS IS STRAWCLUTCHING AT ITS VERY BEST , I HOPE YOU LOT APPRECIATE IT

[kimboy2] 01/3/2017 11:16

We expect the L8 Shaft hoisting availability to be resolved in the March quarter, allowing us to deliver to the back-end loaded full year plan, albeit later than the original guidance,

We are into March now.

[speedsgh] 01/3/2017 10:54

Having to rely on the gold price to get them through to completion is hardly ideal but, seeing as it isn't possible to rely on the management, investors don't have a lot of choice but to hold their breath & hope for a continuation of the supportive gold price.

Here's Proactive's version of yesterday's results with positive spin duly applied...

Medusa Mining hails progress on its "five pillars of development" - [...]

[ilostthelot] 01/3/2017 10:35

Hi Deka i dont think they'll need money but there is no room for error now.
Gold price is helping as well as you say.

They really have to see the completion of these projects and watch the market rerate it.

[atlantic57] 01/3/2017 08:17

Medusa desperately needs a rising gold price and of course delivering on its promises.
There is also the political risk factor of trading in the Philippines.

[adyfc] 01/3/2017 07:56

I know what's going on. Liars lining their own pockets.

[deka1] 01/3/2017 06:29

Last time they needed a bit of cash they got a 14 mil overdraught , but if gold holds at around the 1250/ 1300 mark they should be ok, imo

[ilostthelot] 28/2/2017 22:18

Results weren't a surprise really were they? The sell off from 40c was quick and short term who knows where the bottom is. I thought 40c was going to hold up.

Cash is tight and this could well drift on the speculation that a cash call is needed. Medusa would be mental funding any short term cash flow problem with a capital raising.

If they can make it through this Quarter and finally start seeing the benefits of all the Investments made MML will treble in value very quickly so Place your bets it could equally head very low if they need money.

For me there will be plenty chance to buy in here under $1, which I consider to be cheap ,if they're producing 140,000 at AISC around 900.

[arja] 28/2/2017 21:53

augustloop- that sort of things happens in OZ as brokers give clients tips as needs buyers in thinly traded stocks to enable him to sell ! Cahrtwise , MML looks awful now after breaking 40 support . sadly, it lo0ks ominous and one wonders what is going on

[garrymorrow] 28/2/2017 20:45

Chip:

These guys are paid to destroy the BB's. We ALL know this. Keep up your excellent work. Their sheer desperation is very encouraging!

[chipperfrd] 28/2/2017 16:20

All the best to you as well Atlantic.

re the 'buy on dips': I have built an entire LSE trading strategy around it which I call 'the staircase'. So far I have opened 362 positions across 21 stocks and closed 225 of them at an average gain of 35% (IN SHARES). So very happy with how it is going.
Chip

[atlantic57] 28/2/2017 15:53

Hello Chip you were good enough to share emails on vgm and you made in abundantly
clear that there were risks involved.

Your ability to buy on the dips was crucial.

all the best

[chipperfrd] 28/2/2017 15:53

CP (off topic)

I finally bought WWoWS (none of my kids bought it for me for Xmas!).

Wow - what a tome! It should keep me busy for a while.

I am trying to keep the VC1 table up to date on a weekly basis. I still like the methodology.

Chip

[chipperfrd] 28/2/2017 15:48

Atlantic,

Ah yes, VGM!!

I got that one wrong but managed to salvage a bit on the de-listing as the price dipped below the buy-out price for holders. So it could have been worse, although I had to wait around 18 months to get my cash back.
Chip

[cp42kx07] 28/2/2017 13:45

Thanks chip.

As you say, the interims should not come as much of a surprise to existing holders but it rather looks as though one of the larger holders may be exiting which would be a disappointing vote of no confidence.

The non-cash impairment doesn't concern me but unfortunately many shareholders only look at the headline figures and may therefore panic.

Given the political headwinds in the Philippines we could really do without the continuing (justifiable) doubts regarding management competence / credibility.

Apparently the longest recorded attack of hiccups is some 68 years so MML may have a way to go yet!

[4marlin] 28/2/2017 13:32

I keep watching and and am not yet minded to buy.

[atlantic57] 28/2/2017 13:21

Chip Thanks for that excellent post !

As you clearly state this is your own opinion for yourself and does not constitute advice.

i am posting a clip below from you tube.
This is not meant to attack you personally or challenge the validity of your comments.


However in the interests of balance it shows what can happen when you back management and they get it wrong. I lack your analytical skills and took the comments below at the time
they were made at face value with disastrous results.

0 0

[chipperfrd] 28/2/2017 12:22

These results do not make for a pleasant read, but holders would have been expecting poor financials after the January profit warning informed us about the problems with the L8 shaft.

The US$55m impairment is non-cash but obviously hits the P&L report significantly.

Adjusting for the impairment gives an EBIT of US$16m and NPAT of US$14.2m, which equates to an annualised PER of 1.9x, so the share price is already heavily discounted!

The question becomes 'will the price recover' or is MML on a continuing downward spiral?

I am a contrarian and do most of my portfolio purchases on price weakness, but there has to be a clear probability of upside for such trading to eventually bear fruit. So I am currently asking myself whether MML is increasingly a better-value contrarian purchase - or is it the proverbial 'falling knife'!

I can only speak for myself so the following comments are purely my opinion and subject to any further good/bad news emanating from MML.

The L8 shaft issues do not appear to be a long-term game changer and once the shaft guides have been replaced/maintained the full hoisting capacity should become available. Also, the service shaft is within c. 6 months of completion and should then further increase ore hoist capacity by relieving L8 of the need to carry miners.

Thus both ore tonnage and head grade 'should' be improving by the June quarter and approaching the new maximum capacity by the September quarter with corresponding improvements to cash costs and AISC.

They don't look as though they will run out of cash before the mine recovers given that OPCF and CAPEX outflows were within US$900k over 1H, but clearly the ability to both repair L8 and generate OPCF over this current quarter are paramount when cash available was only US$8.8m at the end of 2016 - so this remains a worry!

In valuation terms, according to my calculations, MML are severely discounted.
At the current A$0.34/share:

PER is 1.9x (annualised)
PBV is 0.28x (including asset impairment of US$55m)
PSR is 0.54x (annualised)
Ev/EBITDA is 1.19x (annualised and adjusted for impairment)
PCF is 1.08x (annualised)

In my view, putting it all in the balance, I expect to add to my current holding of MML over the next few months as I consider that the current valuation is too low given the reasonable probability of improved profitability over the next 6-12 months. However, if there is another 'hiccup' in the shorter term, then I will (once again) have to re-assess.

AIMHO of course.
Chip

[cp42kx07] 28/2/2017 09:52

After close and yet over 4m traded during the day. Looks like another egregious example of MML insider trading that the ASX will never investigate.

[rogash] 28/2/2017 08:59

thanks Eintracht.

[eintracht] 28/2/2017 08:51

After close.

[rogash] 28/2/2017 08:44

Was that released before or after trading hours in Oz?

[eintracht] 28/2/2017 07:53

Half year results out if you want to read something depressing.