Luminar Group Share Discussion Threads

[bahrain2] 21/6/2011 11:06

Chaps, lets try and keep these Boards factual, and well spirited.

We all want LMR to survive. If Greece can negotiate a banking deal, I am sure LMR can as well.

We should hear more about this on July 12th - is anyone here going to the AGM?

[baldeagle5] 20/6/2011 17:09

Red - what a c*nt.

[redordead1] 20/6/2011 15:36

The manger of ABerdeen has just run off with last weeks sales...belive she has taken them to Spain with her and Sunderland 80p drinks all week, Dundee down 50%, Newcastle now closed!!! These were their KEY units!!! there is no way out but


POP

[jeffian] 15/6/2011 10:46

bahrain2,

You are in complete denial. Which bit of the above posts did you not understand? "Property discussion is based on assumption that current values are correct." Well maybe, but if they're not "correct" it'll be because they're too high!

Look, LMR had Net Current Liabilities of -£62m in the last results. They are only solvent because they claim to have Non-Current Assets of £162m of which the vast majority is "Property" (£125M) and "Goodwill" (£34m). As already explained, only £35m of that £125m actually relates to freehold property and the largest element (£64.3m) is for furniture, fixtures & fittings which is worthless to anyone else. Goodwill? Phhh!

Whilst theoretically you are right that improved profitability at the clubs should improve their value, the reality is that that's not happening. In fact the sickening decline in trading continues with like-for-like sales for the first 9 weeks of the new year -14% (an 'improvement'(!) on the -14.7% recorded in H210) so values are likely to continue on down before they go up. Stand by for more 'impairments' at the next results.

The only way this can survive is to trade its way out of its difficulties and the signs of that do not look too good. The idea that a White Knight will ride to the rescue and buy it for asset value are fanciful IMHO.

[bahrain2] 15/6/2011 09:56

Property discussion is based on assumption that current values are correct. Of course they vary depending on the trading of that venue. That in turn is related to the overall performance of the economy and youth unemployment levels. If unemployment starts improving, and then trading at the venues begins to improve, so those sites will become worth more.......

It is just a waiting game now, but Luminar needs to be strong enough to play it or have a good enough backer to support it until trading does improve.

Anyone looking over the portfolio of properties now also knows it is possible to negotiate forced rate reductions so this must also affect values.....

[jeffian] 14/6/2011 18:42

Not quite all, hotfinance, but certainly most. Freeholds account for £34m out of a total of £125m declared property value (depreciated from £390m last year!). Besides the short leaseholds, which are more liabilities than assets IMHO, the largest single element - £65m - is for fixtures , fittings, furniture and equipment! That'll be worth a big, fat zero then!

[hotfinance14] 14/6/2011 18:01

All property is rented.

[jeffian] 14/6/2011 17:48

"...whilst Schroders ends up with the property portfolio at a knockdown price...."


LOL! What "property portfolio" is that, then?

[bahrain2] 14/6/2011 16:19

Perhaps Schroders are preparing to bid?

They need to buy very little more before they are OBLIGED to bid, and this could be an excellent way for LMR to get the financial backing it needs whilst Schroders ends up with the property portfolio at a knockdown price....

And once recovery starts, this has got to rise. I see unemployment has now reached its peak - presumably that also applies to youth unemployment.....

IT CAN ONLY GET BETTER...........

[bahrain2] 14/6/2011 16:17

My source at HQ says there seems to be a level of excitment in the financial dept at the moment. Do not know if that means an offer is coming in or that the banking facility discussions are going well?

Any clues anyone?

Something is going on...........

Just seen another 40000 buy go through just after 4pm..

[hotfinance14] 14/6/2011 12:14

Sub 5p soon folks.

[jeffian] 14/6/2011 10:44

Same old, same old, baldeagle. Is this another "approach" or the same one you saw last year? Or the year before? What's to buy here after the banks have had their pound of flesh?

[baldeagle5] 14/6/2011 10:23

For the first time in months some 50k & 100k buys going through and an ongoing buyer on the book.... Wintefloods also bidding for stock.
With a notable absence of BoD buying at these levels then I think it is a reasonable supposition that the company has been approached and the insiders are trying to tickle in...

[mafia music] 25/5/2011 18:08

what happens coming august they have agreed to keep facility open until then ....

[jeffian] 25/5/2011 16:13

bahrain2,
I think you are confusing 'cash generation' with EBITDA. Last year it didn't generate anything like £23m; it generated less than £8m before the effects of sale/purchase of property and refinancing, which hardly covers the interest bill never mind anything else.

There are 2 killer problems which it has yet to address successfully. Firstly, it needs to stabilise revenues and although the trend is improving, to hail like-for-like sales of -15% as a success is a bit of a laugh. Secondly, there remains a huge question mark over the value of the assets despite years of 'impairment charges' and a Balance Sheet which now barely balances. Many of these clubs are leased, have little or no alternative use and have an asset value based largely on goodwill and the cost of fixtures & fittings, both of which are of little value to any purchaser and are likely to be written off on sale.

It can only save itself by stabilising and then growing revenues, and we still appear to be some way from that.

[bahrain2] 25/5/2011 15:23

Cash generation

LMR generates approx £23m a year and this is enough to pay off interest payments, staff costs etc, but does not leave much left over at all to cut debt. So the group is at an impasse. It needs to restructure the banking facility to allow it to move forward. The banks however want to take control without making a takeover bid and structuring the breaching of covenants at a low level is their way of doing this as LMR cannot avoid then breaching them.

Hardly supporting the British economy is it?

[hotfinance14] 25/5/2011 08:40

Increased losses.

[mafia music] 24/5/2011 21:08

anyone got an idea how this will pan out over the next few months. The banks involved until august so what you expecting to happen after

[hotfinance14] 12/5/2011 17:39

I cant see LMR being cash generative for longas the losses are going to increase.Glad I am not holding.

[adam] 12/5/2011 10:05

The banks effectively own this one. There may be a debt/equity sway for some of the debt that will all but wipe shareholders out. It doesn't make sense to put the group into administration as it is still cash generative and although trading not stabilised it is shwoing some slight signs of the trend reversing. Administration would only make it a lot worse. The main thing is the banks want their money back and the best way to do that is to swap out a portion of the debt for equity, wait for some stability of trading and then sell the company and debt.

[gdasinv2] 12/5/2011 09:53

With Current inflation rate 5% as per BOE, no one goes for dancing...with current debt, short the, , worth 1p only.

[hotfinance14] 12/5/2011 08:49

Losses of £1.5m for the year.

The share price will soon be 5p.

[hotfinance14] 04/4/2011 11:37

You must be mad.