London Capital Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 09/4/2014 13:14

Marked down by 5% although no trades so far today !

[trikon60dollars] 08/4/2014 15:49

most of these platforms offer pretty similar functionality, but the newer ones allow different front ends to be serviced off the same general ledger, as well as giving the client more ability to quickly change the GUI, and analyse customer data in closer detail. I would be astonished if it is a game changer, but certainly an important step forward, as well as ending the costs of running two systems in tandem

[topvest] 07/4/2014 21:20

Yes, good point. Anyone any views on the new platform..is it a game changer? IF they manage to turn this around then the share price growth will be explosive. They have disappointed so much and for so long that expectations are very low. It's probably a good value play down here. I haven't got the guts to buy any more, but I am certainly not selling.

[canteatvalue] 07/4/2014 08:55

I think a major factor probably overlooked by most people here is how D&A is running way, way ahead of capitalised spend, so I think reported profit is significantly understated relative to real earnings power (assuming the exceptionals are really exceptional, which overall they seem to be to me). If costs fall significantly now they have moved on to the new single platform and the legal situation is genuinely behind them then I think cash flow in the future could be very significant relative to the market price. Ashby's strategy of growth through low-cost entry into less developed markets rather than targeting mature, regulated markets like they did before (Australia) also makes a lot of sense to me.

[trikon60dollars] 04/4/2014 16:55

I 100% agree that they have made important progress in settling the LSCL liabilities, disposing of Australia & Gibraltar, are close to concluding their outstanding FOS liabilities and have restructured the Board (a couple of times!). To my mind though, the verdict is still out as to whether they are really operating profitably - we shall see. I'd like to believe they are, but the market has been disappointed so many times before, that there is a degree of scepticism. More importantly, i just don't see the value for an acquirer in spending £35m on an acquisition, which doesn't give them anything they couldn't build for less. Funnily enough, if LCG are successful in taking costs out of the business, this will reinforce my view as there won't be the same cost saving play

[masurenguy] 04/4/2014 13:23

The only reason that a takeout didn't happen last year was due to purely opportunistic bids being made on what was perceived to be a distressed business when the shareprice was at a similar level to today.

Since then they have settled the LSCL liabilities, disposed of Australia & Gibraltar, are close to concluding their outstanding FOS liabilities and have restructured the Board. They are now on a much more solid base with the market cap all in cash and the ongoing business valued at zero, yet they are still profitable at an operating level (£2.2m).

Once the anchor of FOS has been lifted and at just a modest PER of only 8 plus net cash, they should be worth £35m or 63p a share and, with a 10% premium on a takeout, should ultimately go for at least 70p. That provides an upside of around 100% freom where we are today.

[trikon60dollars] 04/4/2014 12:04

maybe, maybe not - didn't happen last year. If you're an established player with $50m to spare, I would argue that you'd get a lot more value putting that into your own marketing. Also the white label is ultra thin margin, which may or may not have properly allocated central costs, and so may or may not be profitable. Personally, I think the investment case needs to be based on organic growth

[masurenguy] 04/4/2014 11:30

The endgame here will be a takeover. They have good white label assets that have ongoing value. The real issue therefore is when, by whom and at what price (certainly double from it's current level IMHO)!

[trikon60dollars] 04/4/2014 10:04

I have been tempted to buy, but have held off so far; whether this is cheap will become clear when they next publish results. There is a whole new breed of competitors who are growing fast: Plus 500, etoro, UFX etc. Much of the cash held by LCG is needed because of FCA capital rules, while these competitors are operating in lighter capital regimes. Further losses (whether exceptional or ordinary) eat into this capital and at some point have an outsize impact on LCG's ability to write new business. In my view, markets have been pretty kind to spread betting firms in Q1; if this is mirrored in LCG's results, it's probably time to buy; if not, not

[topvest] 01/4/2014 21:06

Yes, it's about time this dog really did turn. Just needs some good management and no more own goals. Markets are looking like they will be more volatile in 2014 which would also help. The price will rocket on any real evidence of improvement as they are priced at break up value, so I'm definitely holding. Haven't got the nerve to buy any more as this is a deep value low quality play at the moment. They raise the quality of management of the business and the we will see a share price surge. Big If, but it is possible.

[hugepants] 01/4/2014 08:49

On the face if it this looks amazingly cheap. Adjusted profit before tax was £2.2M. Say £1.5M after tax gives eps of 2.8p.

But the company also has net cash of 30p per share. 33p to buy.

[spooky] 26/3/2014 22:52

Thanks g8ta.

[g8ta] 26/3/2014 19:59

From the last trading statement, results are 1 April.

[spooky] 26/3/2014 09:05

Has anyone seen a date for the results ?

[praipus] 11/3/2014 16:49

SHRE on a rip too...

[checkers2] 03/3/2014 09:49

plus500 on a rip at the mo, with very strong ii support.

Strong in CFDs but not in spreadbetting and futures...

Does anyone on this thread think that LCG could be a target for them?

[hezza123] 19/2/2014 10:53

Thanks checkers2. Will check it out. :-)

[checkers2] 19/2/2014 07:59

Hezza - Btw wrt blz c CJohn - he seems to have good finger on the pulse on that thread

[checkers2] 19/2/2014 07:42

Yes agreed, I have also recently opened an account with them, and inspires confidence.

Have also been called quite a few times by account manager and impression was very good, and this I think is

(a) good that they mine their database but
(b) gives the impression that they are overstaffed perhaps can cut back on operational costs or have more clients to deal with
(c) Apear to lack abit of "grint" and sense of urgency.

Lots of scope for improvement on marketing and sales imo.

Point b &c can be fixed by leadership at the top, and our returns will no doubt be dictated by how they well their leadership can run the company. Operationally seems to be working fine.

[hezza123] 18/2/2014 23:44

Yes, I need to have another look at BLZ. It appeared on my NCAV filter a while back and I've been meaning to revisit it since seeing it in Jeroen's fund. I'm surprised that EWR has drifted back, yet again. Might have to add again soon.

Incidentally, I've been using Capital Spreads recently to trade some of the more liquid stocks (SBRY etc.) and have found the platform a joy to use. Very straight-forward for a thickie like me and have yet to encounter any problems. Certainly inspires confidence in my underlying shareholding at least!

[checkers2] 18/2/2014 20:47

Thanks Hezza, seems we like many of the same co,s as Jeron, I am also in SPL, Cupid, SPSY and looking at EWR at the moment too.

BLZ looks interesting too I think, also because I think it offers a bet that is hopefully not dependant on market gyrations - the aim being to try and get absolute return with non-correlated stocks.

[hezza123] 15/2/2014 00:31

Hi checkers2. According to the below FT article from 2011, his offshore deep value fund had returned 65.2% over 5 years, compared with a 21.7% rise in the FTSE All-Share over the same period.

hxxp://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/f65b0cce-a348-11e0-8d6d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2tLUZZP1U

[checkers2] 14/2/2014 20:50

Thanks Hezza, had a look, and have also read Jeron's book.

Do you know how good his track record is? I notice from the report you posted that the performance data is only for a short period, would be interested to see a LT track record.

I notice they have also bought into Cupid and Emplaze other stocksI hold too.

[hezza123] 13/2/2014 15:04

Just had a read through CH Deep Value Fund's January factsheet and note that they added to their position here, making it the 4th largest holding.

hxxp://www.ch-investments.co.uk/sites/default/files/DVI%20Facts%20Jan14.pdf