Kibo Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lurker5] 02/6/2017 12:40

"SEPCO III would not have an equity stake in the Mbeya project going forward."
What could be clearer ? And what 'slant' do you think I am putting on it ?
Even Kibo then admits that it has 100% - ie no-one else including Sepco has invested.
That leaves Kibo having to find the £500m capex - or someone else to put it up
Again - what coud be clearer - except to anyone doesn't understand what an equity stake is.

[guitars4stars] 02/6/2017 12:09

I do wonder how NCCL is doing these days... Lurker care to comment?

[bionicmanfromwestham] 02/6/2017 11:32

Some interesting points raised there lurker and I appreciate the post as it all helps in making our investment decisions one way or another.This is why were here for open discussions and trying to find out what can help us moving forward.Thank you once again its very much appreciated and I'll catch up with you all next week.Kindest regardsBMFWH

[lurker5] 02/6/2017 11:17

In a Sept (or thereabouts) RNS - a long way into it - LC says 'Sepco will no longer invest in the project' (haven't got it in front of me) His 'answer' quoted by some loon on the other side at the April Investor Show completely obscured and muddled up the very different contracts for 1) Sepco to draw up the plans etc for which it will share the cost with Kibo (giving Kibo the freedom to share it with some alternative partner) and 2) to invest in the project itself. Its the latter is not going to happen acc to that Sept RNS and nothing has been announced subsequently to change that

[bionicmanfromwestham] 02/6/2017 11:08

Signing off now as im catching a flight upto manchester early evening for the Benefit concert in memory of the Manchester victims.3 night stay and so looking forward to it.Very fortunate being able to buy a ticket should be great and at the same time emotional for many people.Catch up next week boys and girls Kindest regardsBMFWH

[uknighted] 02/6/2017 10:52

Where has it been stated that Sepco have withdrawn? You should not make such definitive statements without being able to back it up.

[electrick] 02/6/2017 10:51

Interesting comment from a poster on LSE today

"I'm not convinced that any of the licences will have much of an impact on share price (obviously a refusal would be bad, but we've been told it's just a ,albeit long drawn out, formality).
In my mind a favourable PPA could get things moving a bit, but things will only really pick up when we hit Financial Close and the project gets confirmed funding.
So I'd be interested in why you expect the SML to have such a big impact?"

[lurker5] 02/6/2017 10:50

Moved here from LSE where posts are deleted by believers who can't face doubting views.
Why should Kibo will boom when the licences are awarded ? The only thing will interest investors beyond those LSE believers who ramp(ignoring the lesson from others who don't post but sell in large quantities on spikes) is solid information at financial close. Then, LC can't avoid disclosing all the numbers, together with the institutions he will have had to have persuaded to stump up around £500m (a process will take 6 months plus - after any PPA is agreed: SEPCO has withdrawn for reasons he hasn't told us - but probably due the low irr of the power plant)
If LC discloses a credible plan to commercialise the coal outside Kibo's commitment to supply the power plant (which seems to need all the coal reserves delineated so far) it might deserve a higher value than for MCPP alone. But the MCPP's economics - once diluted by the outside investors paying the low price they will for their shares in a non-growth, short life, utility in a developing country - means the present shares will be worth no more than 10-15 p (as agreed by a few others who + seem able to do the maths. But only when up and running in 4+ yrs time.)
The believers don't seem to understand what financing MCPP involves or what its NPV means. Currently there is no MCPP and no NPV for Kibo to own - only the plans for it. 'It' has no value until someone stumps up around £500m (in loans or equity) to get it up and running. Does Kibo have £500m ? Will anyone else putting up £500m not want a commensurate share of the project's profits ? Answers on a toytown postage stamp.

For the same reason Kibo has nothing to 'sell'. And thinking it will get a 'free carry' is for fairies. The project isn't profitable enough for other investors to allow Kibo not to contribute its fair share to the capex. Kibo might come up with some scheme to separate ownership of the power station from its coal. But the power station itself has no value until it is paid for and Kibo seems stuck with an 'integrated' project where the economics only works if power and coal are one.

But we can rely on some fool to push the shares up for yet another spike (on very little volume) when they think a licence or the PPA is coming. To repeat. No-one will take any interest until the full picture is known. So far LC has obscured every single bit of it - unlike the other CTP's whose BOD's have given pointers to the financing, or have people on board who can do so.

[electrick] 02/6/2017 10:37

bionic... I believe you have forgotten a key element (2.5) to your great analogy... there is still to be a pest infestation which will have a dilutive effect....

[guitars4stars] 02/6/2017 10:37

What a load of tosh & straw clutching ... A strategic decision to save cash becomes 'a cash flow problem' viewed from a deramping numpty's stand point. You guys need to raise your game :)

[electrick] 02/6/2017 10:28

I don't think there is opportunity for a short squeeze... I don't believe there are short positions taken on Kibo..

The share price is reflective of its natural trading point based on its current value...

If it were different the share price would be higher..(doh)

The recent RNS's does nothing to dispel the suggestion that the cash flow is tight. I would hasten to add given the amendments to timescale recently from LC... given the lack of sign offs which ensure payments do not need to commence and given todays RNS which is pointing to the requirement to preserve cash I believe everything I have said about the cash position of the company and the inevitable requirement for Cash either from Loan , placing or (low poss) a third party buying in early has a very high chance of being correct.

the consequence I believe is that it will afford the chance to buy these shares at a greatly reduced price than they are today...