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Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads
Showing 21201 to 21223 of 21225 messages
|If the bid fails ( good) then
1) delek can up the bid
2) iae shares without another bid will be 1.50 by the end of the year.
POO has dipped recently but will stay in the 50-65$ range for the year..
However I would maintain that:
1) non OPEC will step up to their commitments in Apr i.e. Russia
2) OPEC will build a quorum for extending the cuts .. 80% chance IMHO ( and OPEC prod cuts compliance will increase in mar/Apr)
3) floating storage keeps coming down
4) oecd inventory will start to drop again in Apr and continue for the next 4-6 months.
5) Us prod increases cannot offset prod increases, declines, 1.4mbopd demand and we should see this start to impact in apr/may.
6) Libya and Nigeria .. production stable or moderate small increases.
Oil will stay in the 50 to 65$ range for 2017 and will be back at $55 in apr.|
A recent post from someone..which most shareholders should know.. could you just be working for delek?
IAE share value estimate:
"here are some basic maths
1) Audited reserves - 57 million barrels
2) oil price $55
3) Operating cost $18
4) net margin $37
5) net revenue 37 x 55m = $2bn
6) less debt of $600m = $1.4bn
7) FX of 1.25 = £1.1bn
8) shares outstanding 420m
9) value per share = £2.6
These are conservative - oil prices could go higher and reserves will increase with the new tie backs. Also, there is the time value of money - so £2.6 should be more like £1.6 today. Its difficult to find a way to go to £1.2 unless oil is $30. Its a judgement call on where oil prices are going and what might happen to production. The share price would be £1.2 anyway so you have the choice of selling in the market at £1.2 now or hanging on if you feel positive about oil price and the company to continue delivering projects. The deleveraging effect would increase the share price anyway over the next year - so share price would inevitably go up absent anything else.... Need I say more"|
|personally id sell here. why risk the deal falling through?if that happened and with downturn in oil price this would probably halve pretty quikly. whats the point of holding?|
|Charles Stanley sent their corporate action notification on Monday. Their deadline for acceptance is 13 April.
It's not a major holding for me. Disappointing there's no counter-bid, but haven't lost too much from not exiting at the bid announcement. 'll probably accept close to the deadline.
In the (unlikely?) event that the offer is increased, can we assume the higher price would apply also to shares tendered at the original offer price?|
|Let's hope other institutional holders are as keen on their customers interests as Mr Mumford, and that Delek don't have the influence over them that they apparently have over our directors. Scandalous.|
|ITM options are part of the deal.|
|I believe they are not allowed to exceed 20% at this point directly however who knows what may be going on behind the scenes.|
|Will Delek be buying the shares being sold on the market at the moment?|
|Another interpretation would be that he is looking forward to exercising options early and staying on regardless ;~)|
|Ithaca Energy boss backs Delek takeover after $54m loss - HTTP://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/23/ithaca-energy-boss-backs-delek-takeover-54m-loss/
...The deal has been challenged by major shareholder Cavendish Asset Management. To acquire Ithaca, Delek has to secure approvals representing more than 50pc of the shares that it doesn’t own. Shareholders have until April 20 to respond.
Paul Mumford, a fund manager at Cavendish, which holds a 3pc stake in the company, has said he will vote against the deal and still believes that the current market offer of 119p a share values Ithaca at a discount to its reserves and cashflow.
“Following Ithaca’s latest results I still believe the current market offer of 119p a share would mean Delek buying the company at a discount based on the value of its existing reserves and its strong cashflow.
“The current cashflow is $147m this year and will rise sharply as Stella reaches full production. I believe that 150p a share would be a much fairer offer but will still not reflect the full potential,” he added.
Mr Thomas said that he plans to meet with Mr Mumford “in the coming days” to discuss the takeover with him, and other institutional investors.
“We gave a lot of information today about the net asset value of the company, and compared that to the price that’s being offered, and I think it’s quite compelling. We’re confident that this will go ahead because in the end it comes down to a cool rational analysis of value,” he said...|
|They said in the report that the wells were heavily choked to provide just enough gas to commission the compressors, and due to problems with these, that they would remain choked so as not to excessively flare the associated gas.
Compression problems are the bane of offshore field development.... I was involved in helping to identify & resolve many compression problems across the NS (& elsewhere) during the late 90's & early 00's - it seems the industry hasn't learnt much over the years...!
Re. the point on gas:oil ratio - need to be very careful of the units being quoted.... scf/bbl or m3/m3. Also any reference to gas flows through the compressors are likely to include significant recycling so as to keep flaring to a minimum. I'd need to read the transcript to fully understand what they're actually saying.|
|Stella production based on 2 'heavily chocked wells'
guess u mean choked wells otherwise the brown stuff will hit the fan very shortly.|
|While produced volumes decreased by 23%
in 2016 compared to 2015, sales volumes
decreased to a slightly lesser extent
due to lifting schedules, in particular,
larger oil liftings from the Cook field
in 2016. Sales volumes decreased overall
in 2016 primarily due to the cessation
of production from the Athena, Anglia
and Causeway fields as well as reduced
production on the Dons fields.|
|yes O&G, the usual 'Outlook' statement was conspicuous by it's absence as they might have had to put a positive spin on things in there especially wrt...
- Average production in 2017 is anticipated to be in the range of 19,000 to 22,000 boepd
- Forecast 2017 unit operating expenditure is anticipated to be approximately $18/boe, reflecting the anticipated positive impact on unit costs of Stella field production.
- The Company's commodity hedging position remains unchanged since the start of 2017. As of the start of this year the Company has 7,600 boepd (85% oil) hedged at an average floor price of $50/boe for the 18 months to 30 June 2018. Full commodity price upside exposure has been retained on 60% of the volumes hedged and upside exposure to $60/boe has been retained on a further 25% of the hedged volumes.
- UK tax allowances pool of over $1,700 million at 31 December 2016. At current commodity prices, the pool is forecast to shelter the Company from the payment of corporation tax over the medium term.
- acceleration of the GSA oil pipeline installation operations
- Harrier field development programme underway - development drilling to be completed in 2017, with start-up of production expected in the second half of 2018
- Ithaca's joint operations as at 31 December 2016:
Block Licence Field/Discovery Operator IAE%net Country
2/4a P902 Broom EnQuest 8.00 UK
2/5 P242 Broom EnQuest 8.00 UK
14/18b P1293 Athena Ithaca 22.50 UK
21/20a P185 Cook Ithaca 61.35 UK
29/10b P1665 Hurricane Ithaca 54.66 UK
29/10a (upper) P011 Stella/Harrier Ithaca 68.33 UK
30/6a (Upper) P011 Stella/Harrier Ithaca 68.33 UK
48/18b P128 Anglia Ithaca 30.00 UK
48/19b P128 Anglia Ithaca 30.00 UK
48/19e P1011 Anglia Ithaca 30.00 UK
49/2a P1013 Topaz RWE 35.00 UK
9/28a D P209 Crawford EnQuest 29.00 UK
211/18b A P236 West Don EnQuest 17.28 UK
211/18a B P236 SW Don EnQuest 40.00 UK
211/22a B P201 Fionn Ithaca 100.00 UK
211/23d P1383 Causeway Ithaca 64.50 UK
23/22a P111 Pierce Shell 7.48 UK
98/6,98/7 P.534 Wytch Farm Perenco 7.42 UK
SY/88b,SY/98a,SZ/8a PL089 Wytch Farm Perenco 7.42 UK
211/18e, 211/19c P2137 Ythan EnQuest 40.00 UK|
|I haven't accepted fwiw|
|Debt as at dec16 = 598m
Debt at Mar17 = 615m
We need Stella prod to rise to 22kbopd asap for debt to start to reduce - refinancing also coming..
"As previously guided, average production in 2017 is anticipated to be in the range of 19,000 to 22,000 boepd (approximately 75% oil)"
Wrt the board comments (lack of) on future potential and value not mentioned anywhere which would drive the share price (imho) from 1.20 to 1.60 this year ( assuming Poo above 55$), norpipe, 5 wells drilled, reduced cost base, vorlich, Austen and harrier fields.|
|Net debt down as expected.
" The Company had a UK tax allowances pool of over $1,700 million at 31 December 2016"
That will shelter IAE from paying corporation tax for quite some time. Let's have some tasty cash flow, enjoy the fruits of the GSA development. Christ we've waited long enough !|
|I won't be accepting the offer that's for sure, no advice intended. I believe we are currently worth 150p+ . Going forward the valuation will only increase even if the POO remains range bound, IMHO .Good luck holders|
|Dozey3 - agree 100%, as far as risks are concerned Delek took < 20% of the risk but now want 100% payback!|
|Absolutely nothing in the report supports the Dalek offer. Of course there are risks, we knew that when we invested and now future success looks highly probable the board want to take it from under our noses.
Costs down' production up, and increasing'; hedges in place; Harrier to come. No way am I giving in to highway robbery.|
|lol, pretty much as anticipated then speedsgh, the only thing that does surprise me is that they didn't actually capitalise that in the RNS! ;-)
"Forecast 2017 unit operating expenditure is anticipated to be approximately $18/boe, reflecting the anticipated positive impact on unit costs of Stella field production."
which is pretty good with much of production hedged at a floor price of $50/b maintaining upside exposure
"The Company's commodity hedging position remains unchanged since the start of 2017. As of the start of this year the Company has 7,600 boepd (85% oil) hedged at an average floor price of $50/boe for the 18 months to 30 June 2018. Full commodity price upside exposure has been retained on 60% of the volumes hedged and upside exposure to $60/boe has been retained on a further 25% of the hedged volumes."|
|Les Thomas, Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"...Having reached this important milestone and after weighing up the potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead, the Board considers the takeover offer tabled by Delek as providing full value to shareholders and WHOLEHEARTEDLY recommends its acceptance." [said he while rubbing his hands with glee at the riches he hoped to be receiving in the short term at the expense of other shareholders]|
Following completion of the necessary offshore preparatory works on the FPF-1 floating production facility, first hydrocarbons from the Stella field was achieved in mid-February 2017. Production was initially started from one well on the field in order to commission and stabilise the liquid processing systems on the FPF-1 and commence oil exports to the shuttle tanker.
Continued progress is being made with the FPF-1 dynamic commissioning programme. The key outstanding tasks involve commissioning of the fuel gas system and the two gas export compressors, in order to commence gas exports to the CATS pipeline.
Initial load testing on the first of the two gas export compressors identified the requirement for modifications to the instrumentation on the machine in order to complete the commissioning scope. This work is in the process of being completed and it is expected that the planned commissioning programme will shortly recommence. Once load testing of the compressor has been satisfactorily proven, this will enable gas to be routed to the fuel gas system and initial pipeline exports to begin. Following this, testing of the second gas export compressor will commence.
Once both export compressors are operational the ramp-up to full production rates will commence, followed by optimisation of production across the wells on the field. While it was anticipated that the dynamic commissioning and ramp-up programme would take up to eight weeks to complete, it is likely that these activities will take longer, with the ramp-up phase of operations now expected to commence in April 2017.
Initial load testing on the first of the two gas export compressors identified the requirement for modifications to the instrumentation on the machine in order to complete the commissioning scope.
not surprising ?|