Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sludgesurfer] 04/4/2017 22:02

I emailed the Laurel Hill advisory group (email address in the takeover circular) in Toronto today who confirmed that the 10 day extension is mandatory should the bid be successful.

[bountyhunter] 04/4/2017 17:30

and Delek's road block offer currently equates to just £1.17 and ignores successful Stella start up and the companies future potential :-(
Dalek took just 19.7% of the risks but expects 100% of the rewards, certainly not a done deal yet though

[oilandgas1] 04/4/2017 17:18

Brent back above $54.. and WTI above $51

[bountyhunter] 04/4/2017 08:49

good post O&G, also BP up around 2% today could be a positive sign for the sector

[oilandgas1] 04/4/2017 08:47

Key news due within 7 days:

Key Extra numbers due out:
1. OPEC and non OPEC production numbers for March! Russia confirmed 202k out of 300k target.
2. Updated OECD numbers
3. OPEC MOMR and EIA drilling prod reports
4. Global rig count( down possibly by 80+ rigs)
5. EIA STEO
6. IEA OMR

POO will rise in Apr17 with oecd global inventory drawdowns.. news due

Oecd = 3.006bn (feb17)
Us = 1.336bn (24mar)
Us inventory for Mar17 down 12.8m so far

Likely that with OPEC/ non OPEC deal we will see Oecd inventory drop 30m-40m)in Mar17

It's getting interesting now with 20apr deadline approaching for the vote.. some updates to my previous comments

If the bid fails ( good) then

1) delek can up the bid
2) iae shares without another bid will be 1.50 by q3 if Poo around $60. Iae will invest in growingvthe Stella hub in H2

POO has started to recover but will stay in the 50-65$ range for the year..


However I would maintain that:
1) non OPEC will step up to their commitments in Apr i.e. Russia 202k drop
2) OPEC will build a quorum for extending the cuts .. 80% chance IMHO ( and OPEC prod cuts compliance will increase in mar/Apr) eh Iraq recent statements for 4.35mbopd target.
3) floating storage keeps coming down
4) OECD inventory will start to drop again in Apr and continue for the next 4-6 months.
5) Us prod increases cannot offset global prod decreases, declines, 1.4mbopd demand and we should see this start to impact in apr/may.
6) Libya and Nigeria .. production dropped by 252kbopd and 200kbopd resp.
7) Venezuela likely to have dropped 150kbopd in Mar17

Oil will stay in the 50 to 65$ range for 2017 and will be back at $55 this month

[bountyhunter] 03/4/2017 07:44

Brent chart updated, now back up to $53.47

[dozey3] 01/4/2017 17:58

Disappointed to see the Chronic Investor advises acceptance, but with no sensible analysis or rationale. The short article regurgitates bits of the very good results but with no attempt at valuation or future prospects, not even mentioning poo which is the crux of future oil co sps. Much lower standard of reportage/analysis than even my low expectations.

[freddie ferret] 30/3/2017 17:38

POOs firmed a bit over the last few days.

[bountyhunter] 30/3/2017 12:17

Thanks ss, indicates Cavendish/Artemis sticking to their guns.

[sludgesurfer] 30/3/2017 08:46

Some mention of Cavendish/Artemis stance in this interview.

[bountyhunter] 30/3/2017 07:58

I'm not planning on accepting this offer by the deadline - if their lowball offer does get 50% re shares they don't own they have said there will be a 10 day extension period (so can always accept then) but if not then they will have to up their offer to bag IAE

[hopeful holder] 29/3/2017 21:39

Oilandgas1. Nice summary and thank you.In business terms, the first generally accepted rule is to offer low knowing the first offer should be knocked back.I hope that us pi's have enough clout to ensure a second offer has to be made. Good luck to you all whatever you decide to you

[oilandgas1] 25/3/2017 11:45

If the bid fails ( good) then

1) delek can up the bid
2) iae shares without another bid will be 1.50 by the end of the year.

POO has dipped recently but will stay in the 50-65$ range for the year..


However I would maintain that:
1) non OPEC will step up to their commitments in Apr i.e. Russia
2) OPEC will build a quorum for extending the cuts .. 80% chance IMHO ( and OPEC prod cuts compliance will increase in mar/Apr)
3) floating storage keeps coming down
4) oecd inventory will start to drop again in Apr and continue for the next 4-6 months.
5) Us prod increases cannot offset prod increases, declines, 1.4mbopd demand and we should see this start to impact in apr/may.
6) Libya and Nigeria .. production stable or moderate small increases.

Oil will stay in the 50 to 65$ range for 2017 and will be back at $55 in apr.

[oilandgas1] 25/3/2017 11:41

runwaypaul..

A recent post from someone..which most shareholders should know.. could you just be working for delek?

IAE share value estimate:

"here are some basic maths
1) Audited reserves - 57 million barrels
2) oil price $55
3) Operating cost $18
4) net margin $37
5) net revenue 37 x 55m = $2bn
6) less debt of $600m = $1.4bn
7) FX of 1.25 = £1.1bn
8) shares outstanding 420m
9) value per share = £2.6
These are conservative - oil prices could go higher and reserves will increase with the new tie backs. Also, there is the time value of money - so £2.6 should be more like £1.6 today. Its difficult to find a way to go to £1.2 unless oil is $30. Its a judgement call on where oil prices are going and what might happen to production. The share price would be £1.2 anyway so you have the choice of selling in the market at £1.2 now or hanging on if you feel positive about oil price and the company to continue delivering projects. The deleveraging effect would increase the share price anyway over the next year - so share price would inevitably go up absent anything else.... Need I say more"

[runwaypaul] 25/3/2017 10:21

personally id sell here. why risk the deal falling through?if that happened and with downturn in oil price this would probably halve pretty quikly. whats the point of holding?

[sf5] 25/3/2017 10:18

Charles Stanley sent their corporate action notification on Monday. Their deadline for acceptance is 13 April.

It's not a major holding for me. Disappointing there's no counter-bid, but haven't lost too much from not exiting at the bid announcement. 'll probably accept close to the deadline.
In the (unlikely?) event that the offer is increased, can we assume the higher price would apply also to shares tendered at the original offer price?

[dozey3] 24/3/2017 13:06

Let's hope other institutional holders are as keen on their customers interests as Mr Mumford, and that Delek don't have the influence over them that they apparently have over our directors. Scandalous.

[ziblot] 24/3/2017 12:21

ITM options are part of the deal.

[bountyhunter] 24/3/2017 08:05

I believe they are not allowed to exceed 20% at this point directly however who knows what may be going on behind the scenes.

[jimbobaroony] 24/3/2017 08:01

Will Delek be buying the shares being sold on the market at the moment?

[bountyhunter] 24/3/2017 07:52

Another interpretation would be that he is looking forward to exercising options early and staying on regardless ;~)

[speedsgh] 24/3/2017 07:31

Ithaca Energy boss backs Delek takeover after $54m loss -

...The deal has been challenged by major shareholder Cavendish Asset Management. To acquire Ithaca, Delek has to secure approvals representing more than 50pc of the shares that it doesn’t own. Shareholders have until April 20 to respond.

Paul Mumford, a fund manager at Cavendish, which holds a 3pc stake in the company, has said he will vote against the deal and still believes that the current market offer of 119p a share values Ithaca at a discount to its reserves and cashflow.

“Following Ithaca’s latest results I still believe the current market offer of 119p a share would mean Delek buying the company at a discount based on the value of its existing reserves and its strong cashflow.

“The current cashflow is $147m this year and will rise sharply as Stella reaches full production. I believe that 150p a share would be a much fairer offer but will still not reflect the full potential,” he added.

Mr Thomas said that he plans to meet with Mr Mumford “in the coming days” to discuss the takeover with him, and other institutional investors.

“We gave a lot of information today about the net asset value of the company, and compared that to the price that’s being offered, and I think it’s quite compelling. We’re confident that this will go ahead because in the end it comes down to a cool rational analysis of value,” he said...