Invista Share Discussion Threads

[hosede] 05/9/2011 15:30

I think it has something to do with the weather as the Northern Italians are quite different from those in the South (and actually wanted/ may still want to secede)
Of all the PIIGS I think the Irish are the mostly likely to recover. They were traditionally poor for centuries - sudden wealth and then back to poverty - easier to bear perhaps. Also it was their banks that caused the problem a bit like Iceland's

[skyship] 05/9/2011 14:55

Hieronymous.

Sorry - I have to side with Hosede on that one as I think you are being a tad unfair. You cannot equate modern Italy & Greece to the glories of two millenia ago - to do so is naive.

I haven't known closely many of either nationality - just two Greeks, one of whom worked every hour granted him and did very well for BP; and another, an entrepreneur, who did likewise but held everything offshore; though through companies registered in Greece because he paid no tax!!!

[hieronymous1] 05/9/2011 13:14

Hosede

Read your history on:

"the glory that was Greece
And the grandeur that was Rome."

Edgar Alan Poe is also worth a look but less directly relevant.

I have met, worked with and counted as friends a variety of Greeks and Italians all of whom were honest, intelligent and hard working. Perhaps I just choose my friends carefully.

But really, such sweeping generalisations as yours serve no purpose beyond a cheap laugh. If that was your purpose then I grimace and look away.

[hosede] 05/9/2011 12:25

Hieronymous
"As the PIIGS become responsible citizens" . Can you really EVER see the Greeks Italians etc. working 40 hour weeks, paying their taxes and retiring at 65+? It's just not in their nature.

[aliveli] 05/9/2011 12:15

German economy is driven by export - so I cannot see how Germany could come out of Euro.
I believe it has now a lower unemployment than during better times.

If the weak countries leave the Euro - then what? The Euro will be very strong and they will have problem exporting. This will be good news to US and other countries. Even Switzerland is struggling with strong CHF.
Accordingly, I cannot see a change in status quo, unless they are forced to do something.

[hieronymous1] 05/9/2011 11:04

asmodeus

I don't know if the PIIGS will stay in the EURO zone or not. If everyone sees sense soon enough, they will. If they leave then the rump will be more like the old DM zone and be stronger than the present uncertainty. But the increased transaction costs of trade, the disruption of change will be a drag on growth. If the PIIGS stay in, there will be less disruption now but probably slower reforms to their social, economic and political structures, so slower growth longer term. In the very long term we are all dead :-)

If the PIIGS attempted to return to using their own currencies they would fail and end up doing all their external trade and much internal trade with either dollars or EUROS. Convenience and transaction volumes suggest that the rump EURO would dominate. So they would still be subjected to the influence of EURO zone policies but with even less input on their content and implementation. They are better off trying to stay in.

The EURO will continue in some form and will fluctuate in value against other currencies. The short run is unknowable because markets are swayed by noise, the long run depends on the success of reforms.

Reform to the PIIGS internal structures and reform of the EU to federalise fiscal policy are both essential. The faster they come the better. IMHO.

[asmodeus] 05/9/2011 11:01

Hiero.- re my 306 - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says today in the Telegraph - "The IMF must know .....that Greece needs a 40% devaluation AND 50% debt forgiveness to claw back viability"! And Roger Bootle, in the same edition, implies that the apparent "willful blindness" regarding Euro problems is actually the need for "absolute secrecy" to avoid precipitating a banking collapse.

[skyship] 05/9/2011 10:23

Enviro - I have to disagree with you on that one. At the time France was becoming the sick man of Europe - not the UK.

[envirovision] 05/9/2011 09:53

asmodeus, he writes in todays times that the lisbon treaty should be torn up and a closer union is wrong.

I guess he is a very bitter man, after all Europe wiped the floor with him and his disastrous attempts to align an enfeebled sterling with marks and francs.

[envirovision] 05/9/2011 09:39

The good news sounds like a certainty via independent article today:

[skyship] 05/9/2011 09:02

Nigel Lawson - not a popular figure with many; but in my view speaks a lot of good economic sense. Asmo - pls let us know if you find out where the article was published.

Made a small top-up again @ 36.15p this morning - good news re Planation House; and also the AGM tomorrow could bring some statement on the future.

[asmodeus] 05/9/2011 08:37

Many thanks, Hiero., but I'm not sure whether you believe that , although the Piigs will be allowed to default, they will still retain the Euro, but with continued financial support? And do you think your ideas, if they come to pass, will strengthen, or weaken the Euro? N.B., I just caught the gist of news that Nigel Lawson has written an article about the future of the Euro somewhere.

[envirovision] 05/9/2011 08:30

An excellent post Hieronymous1.

[asmodeus] 04/9/2011 22:32

Thanks for your view, Hieronymous1. I'm not as knowledgeable as I would like to be about sophisticated international finance, but just feel, as a matter of simple financial housekeeping really, that, even if there is another bail-out, or bail-outs, that Greece, and, perhaps others, will still not be able to generate enough income to pay off debts and live within their means without being able to de-value. But do you think that there could be a scheme in effect permanently to bail-out these countries?

[horndean eagle] 04/9/2011 16:50

If IFD can drag the completion date out to 31st Dec and get £500m net after costs then their share of NAV would be 500-430.5-29*0.29 = £11.5m or 3.5p per share. The longer they can drag it out the better as the swap liability will reduce by circa 4m a quarter until expiry.

[hieronymous1] 04/9/2011 16:38

tiltonboy and asmodeus

The other alternative, more likely in my view, is that after huffing and puffing, the Germans and other relatively well off Eurozone countries will offer enough new finance to bail out the weaker sisters. The conditions attached will extend EU oversight of the economies of those bailed out by enough to satisfy the Germans and not so much that it forces the periphery to choose any of the other options you moot.

The bailout and the oversight will be billed as temporary measures but will eventually be adopted as part of a revised federal constitution of the EU. Nationalism is an artificial construct, doomed by its own limitations.

[jimbo3352] 04/9/2011 12:08

Article in today's Sunday Times suggests Jamie Ritblat has improved his offer for Plantation Place to c£500m. Latest value in IFD's June '11 quarterly report is £494.1m which gave their 29% stake a value of c£7m not recognised in the accounts because of the LTV breach. A nice cushion of c2pps on nav.

[asmodeus] 02/9/2011 08:48

My thoughts are that Greece, and perhaps others, cannot, from what I read, possibly become solvent without devaluing, and this they can't do while in the Euro. Therefore they are likely to pullout, and therefore, at the very least, the Eurozone would have to be reorganized and there would be chaos. The implications of this are too complicated for me to assess. But, I too am certainly not investing in any "Euro" stocks (or, indeed any others) for the time being. But, as someone else pointed out, there seems to be a lot of "Willful Blindness" regarding the Euro in the market, and amongst Politicians at the moment. Many thanks for giving us your views, Tilton. Always much valued.

[tiltonboy] 02/9/2011 08:31

asmo,

I am not buying Euro related stocks generally as I have profound worries as to what will happen to the currency.

Three scenarios could play out.The staus quo could be maintained, and nobody drops out. However the other two options are my concern. Weaker countries re-adopt their own currency, and see it collapse, yet still have debts in Euros which soars. Stronger countries leave the Euro, which itself would collapse.

Depends on what you think the chances of the Euro surviving are.

[asmodeus] 02/9/2011 08:19

Tilton, what are your views on the the possibility Euro chaos, and how it might affect property companies like this?

[gary1966] 01/9/2011 16:58

Interesting trades today. Nasty UT at the end there. May try and pick up some more first thing by switching my holding in MCKS if I can pick them up sub 36p.

[skyship] 31/8/2011 18:00

However you look at it and however biased I might be - 36.64p for a 9.6% yield and a 35% EPRA NAV discount is absurdly good value. Even with a Board which seems to have things other than shareholder value on their collective minds!

PS - They touched 37p bid mid-morning, so you did well there Tilts

[tiltonboy] 31/8/2011 15:53

Just picked up a small holding for one of the kids, paying 36.639p. Could have bought more at the price as well.

[skyship] 31/8/2011 09:39

Scburbs - I agree with the tenor of your post - on the face of it Duncan Owen has been behaving pretty badly and putting his own interests way ahead of both his employers and his shareholders. Certainly seems like that.

What I found unedifying in the 19th August RNS from IFD was yet again no mention of maximising shareholder value. Seems they just want to shoe Duncan Owen into Schroder so as to ensure Duncan Owen's future. What about the many alternative strategems for producing value for IFD shareholders?

Maybe I'll give a little more notice to what PCTN have to say; assuming they pursue matters of course...