Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[wallywoo] 15/2/2016 12:30

was tempted here until I looked at a long term chart. Does not look like much support until share price gets down to 300p

[speedsgh] 15/2/2016 12:04

IRV now looking v interesting from an income perspective. Current consensus forecasts (according to Digital Look):

FY2015 24.45p = 7.0%
FY2016 25.71p = 7.3%

Is the market saying that the dividend is not sustainable?

[hardupfedup] 15/2/2016 11:21

rights issue /placing coming perhaps ?

[deadly] 15/2/2016 09:16

the difference is that ATK has bounced over 5% today, but IRV is stationary.
IRV must be dirt cheap at this level.

[spacecake] 14/2/2016 22:46

FT...

Sector peer WS Atkins, down 7.8 per cent at £11.87, warned on Wednesday that it was facing “increased uncertainty” on Middle East projects, particularly in property and infrastructure.

[wad collector] 11/2/2016 16:24

Batten down the hatches and wait for spring .This ship is not sinking , but is shaking out nervous investors.

[phillis] 11/2/2016 16:21

3 months ago


no single low margin contract can have this effect

[thorpematt] 11/2/2016 15:58

P.S With respect to CLLN that was already off a cliff and MAY have support at its present level.

[thorpematt] 11/2/2016 15:57

FWIW (and don't shoot the messenger - my position is fairly small). I went short last week. I believe fundamentally IRV is too cheap BUT the global news and the chart were too strong for it NOT likely fail to fall through support. (which is what it did).

I like the company and its management and its a long term good investment IMO.

Much depends on your timeframe here really. Support at cica 347p is possible.

[edmundshaw] 11/2/2016 14:59

Because we are down 13-14% and companies with similar exposure such as Carillion are down around 2%.

[dogwalker] 11/2/2016 14:53

Why assume the loss of the NHS contract is the cause of the share price drop? Surely it's more likely to do with concern over Middle East contracts, current & future, & their impact on the company's longer -term prospects.

[edmundshaw] 11/2/2016 14:51

Why is debt an issue if interest rates are set to remain so low? Interserve has had no problems refinancing.

[edmundshaw] 11/2/2016 14:46

If the loss of the contract were material - in financial terms at least - Interserve management would be OBLIGED to have put out an RNS by now to avoid a false market between those who know and those who don't.

So one SHOULD be able to infer that any losse from the loss of the contract are pretty insignificant in the scheme of things.

[masurenguy] 11/2/2016 14:42

In the current climate the debt is probably spooking investors here. Otherwise it looks oversold but then there are many others in a similar position, especially financials. Recently on my watchlist - no position yet.

[edmundshaw] 11/2/2016 14:24

ditto waddy, though at 371. It may be wrong, but most times in this kind of situation it is right, and the balance of probabilities is in our favour.

Several other places I have been adding where value is getting deep. So I am spreading the risk quite nicely (well I think so): AV., CLLN, CNCT, NXR, PHNX, CMS.

Any more ideas welcome. This is what the excess cash was waiting for (though of course timing is personal preference/guesswork).

[forwood] 11/2/2016 14:21

Very oversold - MACD has never been so low; note how the share price has improved every time following a big selloff.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[fangorn2] 11/2/2016 14:19

This as well but hardly justifying of a 13% drop....

"Interserve (LON:IRV), down 12.9%. Liberum Capital has downgraded the outsourced services provider to 'hold' from 'buy'."

Smacks of forewarning of upcoming results....seen it so many times.

[wad collector] 11/2/2016 14:16

Added at 368 even though I have too many ; an opportunity that dose not come often.

[salpara111] 11/2/2016 14:03

Unbelievable!
The market cap has dropped so dramatically that they are actually now in danger of being relegated from the FTSE250!
I find it hard to believe that they have been hit so hard just because of the loss of one pretty small contract.
One hell of an opportunity here....so long as the results are at least "in line"

[forwood] 11/2/2016 13:43

mmm - The nhs has been doing precisely that and what happens is the work is then taken on by more highly paid clinical staff whose knowledge of contracting and commercial acumen is shall we say 'limited'. The number of consultants on £200k plus salaries who are doing little more than elementary service management rather than using their clinical expertise would astound you.

So they've been getting rid of 'highly paid' general managers on about £60 - 75k and replacing them with clinicians on £120-225k. That's really clever!

All so they can show they employ less managerial staff and have increased clinical staff!

[edmundshaw] 11/2/2016 13:23

I wonder if the trust should ever have outsourced. They knew how IRV was going to try to save on costs. A simpler way for the NHS to cut costs would be to remove the section of management that spends its time making stupid deals that won't work out "right".

[forwood] 11/2/2016 12:58

hitting sentiment but probably not the bottom line. Not much margin in these kinds of nhs contracts believe me!

[edmundshaw] 11/2/2016 12:52

So Interserve have tripped up on one of their contracts at last. It had to happen sooner or later.

If one or two more go pear shaped I shall get nervous, but TBH I am surprised they have not fallen foul of one of these institutional deals before in the four years I have been following them (compare what has happened at Serco etc!). Still, it could hardly have happened at a worse time, with general market falls and oil price weakness both negatives for the share price.

[forwood] 11/2/2016 12:41

There was a campaign to end the contract as soon as it started. The staff would have been ex nhs and now that it's been taken back, they will return to the nhs! As former nhs management, I really would not read too much into that!

I suspect they will have been compensated for the termination - the reports were tight lipped on that score.