Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[bend1pa] 11/2/2016 12:17

That news was announced on Feb 8, yet it took 3 days for the share price to react? IRV made a pig's ear of the Leicester hospitals cleaning contract, apparently putting patient's lives at risk according to workers. Very poor!

[tuscan4] 11/2/2016 10:55

Fall down to early termination of Leicester Health contract. Looks rather oversold in my view. Kwikform business alone is probably worth £350m !

[dogwalker] 11/2/2016 10:46

I'd say it's oversold whatever the results on the 24th.....Doesn't mean it won't go lower still, of course, depending on oil (it seems). I'm going to wait for the results too ,before panicking (for good reason), or not.By then the share price could be below £3 at this rate but hey-ho.Or perhaps the share price will rise ahead of results now that we've had the collapse so far .It's a job to know!

[salpara111] 11/2/2016 10:11

Either the upcoming results are going to disappoint or this is oversold.
I am keeping my powder dry but ready to jump in if they reassure at results.

[bend1pa] 11/2/2016 09:50

Hm! I timed this one well - the 2nd largest faller in the FTSE 250 currently, down nearly 8% as I post but recovering from nearly 10% at one point. Maybe insiders have got a whiff of the results and they're going to disappoint.

[wad collector] 11/2/2016 08:29

Wow that is an impressive drop , testing £4 this morning.
..and the reason is ....because Far Eastern markets dropped , and they fell because Western Markets dropped the day before , and they dropped because Far Eastern......
And one day it will all go into reverse.

[bend1pa] 10/2/2016 15:13

Cerrito. I looked at the more recent interim statement for last June. Operating cash flow before capex was £32.6m (2014 £3.7m). After capex and taxes, £17.9m (2014 -£20.5m) so a definite LFL improvement there. Net interest paid was £8.3 so covered by cash 2.1x), and net divs paid was £17.7m, so yes, not enough cash to cover divs, so they had to borrow. Net gearing then was around 60%, which is on the high side. Not worrying yet but I wouldn't want to see that climb much higher tbh. However, does IRV traditionally make more money in the 2nd half of the year? It's going to be interesting when the finals are announced soon.

[masurenguy] 10/2/2016 12:46

Cerrito - the interim dividend was up by 5.3% compared to last year. Do you expect to see the final dividend this year to be increased by the same factor or to remain unchanged @15.5p?

[salpara111] 10/2/2016 11:59

Cash flow was impacted by acquisitions so it should show considerable improvement going forward.
I have owned IRV twice in the last 4 years but not currently.
The upcoming results will be very interesting as I will be looking to see a substantial improvement in cash flow and if it is there I will invest again.

[cerrito] 09/2/2016 23:21

I do not think you will regret your purchase bend1pa.
You are right that the dividend is covered by earnings but the cash flow shows a different story:ie in H1 2015 net cash from operations was £18m reduced to £8m when you take into account interest paid and the dividend was £22m. For the whole of 2014 net cash from operations was a measly £0.7m to which one has to add interest payments of £16.6m and whole year dividends were £31m.
Reading the interims suggest a different world from today-an increase in dividend and big investment in Middle East Equipment Services.
May well buy more if it gets back to sub 420.

[cerrito] 05/2/2016 22:05

Trying to get a handle on this week’s continuation of the fall in the share price down from 467 to 445 in the week. I see we had the announcement from Standard Life that they had reduced very modestly and this was the first Holdings in Company RNS for two months.
I reread the Nov 13 Trading update which apart from the specific UK construction issues was upbeat; I did notice that they have mentioned Australia which I imagine continues to be v slow but as revenues from Australasia were just £12m in the first half of 2015 it will be pretty inconsequential
Perhaps everyone is talking themselves into a state of doom and gloom but having said that I am reluctant to press the buy button.
I see results due on Feb 24

[the juggler] 03/2/2016 16:31

Back to where it was 3 years ago. The Report later this month will have to be stonking to get this to recover! What the heck are the Exec Board doing?

[salpara111] 03/2/2016 09:39

I really struggle to understand why so many UK construction businesses still continue to compete fiercely for work at no real margin.
There is clearly far too much capacity in the sector but no one seems to be pulling back.
IRV are guilty of this as much as other big players.
I am just concerned as to how their business will perform in the middle east with the price of oil on the floor and national budgets being cut over there.
I am poised to invest if the next update is promising but not confident to take a stake at present.

[dogwalker] 03/2/2016 09:21

Fair enough, Edmund ! My mistake - thanks.

[edmundshaw] 03/2/2016 09:14

It's in the Q3 statement - a better source than the IC if I might say. To wit:

"In the UK, whilst the performance of our building and fit-out businesses is encouraging, this year's segmental result will be impacted by three loss-making energy process contracts within our infrastructure business. This is due in large part to sub-contractor insolvencies and the consequential impacts on project timing and costs. Our involvement in the delivery of these contracts is substantially complete. Expectations for the full year are for a break-even performance in the UK Construction segment."

[dogwalker] 03/2/2016 08:50

According to the IC ' the group's UK construction business is expected to have performed less well ......due to three loss-making contracts caused by subcontractor insolvencies'. Shame if true, & perhaps a prime reason for the share price performance if others were aware of this info.

[thorpematt] 02/2/2016 23:02

numis upgrade.

[ali47fish] 01/2/2016 09:24

this one is up today- is that because of oil?

[salpara111] 20/1/2016 14:19

Nothing like hindsight!
If we could all time our exits and entrances perfectly we would all be sitting poolside in Barbados!
Having owned IRV twice, the first time when I accumulated sub £2 and then cashed out in tranches between about £3.30 and £3.80 I was amazed to see it reach £7.50.
I bought last year and then sold within a few months for a modest gain of about 7%.
I always liked the business and have to admit I never thought they would drop quite so far.
There seem to be so many conflicting signals at present concerning the health of the global economy that I find myself paralysed.
One thing I do think is going to turn is the price of oil but not perhaps until the middle/end of the year. At that point I will be looking at the healthiest oilers I can find and loading up.

[edmundshaw] 20/1/2016 10:33

wad, probably wise. Well I hope so as its not far off my approach.

The only thing I do in a down market are (i) weight up a bit more in shares after a decent drop, and (ii) spot the companies that have fallen most and least rapidly (other factors being reasonably equal - e.g. similar prospects and sector), and if the difference is marked, transfer some money from the latter to the former.

[wad collector] 20/1/2016 09:58

I'm fully invested now too . In this sort of market I just shut up shop and wait for better days. In my 30 yrs of investing sometimes had to wait yrs for my portfolio to rebound . I have learned to resist the temptation to take money out of safer places to invest in stock market bargains ; unless you can be VERY patient. At least this sort of holding will pay a good yield in the meantime.

[mfhmfh] 19/1/2016 16:39

wad collector - you're right but no money left and haemorrhaging cash everywhere in every share although did claw back a bit today.

[salpara111] 19/1/2016 16:20

Hmm, the share price is now testing 3 year lows.
A decent update next month could finally turn this around and if it does I will certainly be taking a chunky stake.
I guess sentiment is not great in this sector at the moment but if that changes it could rise back to the 600 region pretty quickly.

[wad collector] 19/1/2016 15:41

mfhmfh your stop loss has allowed you to buy back in at a discount!