Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[luckymouse] 18/1/2015 14:01

Well, it sailed through the 100WMA - oil exposure I guess - I make the next btm 485 - which it just bounced off - but we need to see that a decent btm formation & some green volume spikes

[salpara111] 15/1/2015 13:35

It is not so much about its direct exposure to the oil sector, rather their exposure to middle eastern countries whose expenditure is heavily dependent on the oil price.
IRV are pretty diversified.
I am happy enough with my entry at 505 but I accept that it may drift a little lower.

[the juggler] 15/1/2015 11:34

I see Interserve facilities have won a £32 million 7 year contract to provided cleaning and security services on the Docklands Light Railway.
A very diversified group indeed!

[philo124] 15/1/2015 08:35

Modest top up sub £5.

[edmundshaw] 14/1/2015 20:21

That is a good question and tricky to answer as it is not separated in results. Similarly, one is interested in the percentage of the business and the profit from OPEC countries.

However, IRV also gets profits from managing its PPI contracts, so working out the overall effect of the oil price slide is a bit of a nightmare... My estimate is under 20% of revenues are directly OP sensitive, but how much of those are vulnerable and to what extent is tricky. Some stuff might actually get more profitable on a lower energy cost - but again that will depend on how contracts are written...

[adamb1978] 14/1/2015 18:14

Does anyone know what % of IRV's business is exposed to the oil sector?

[wad collector] 14/1/2015 15:13

Looks like your Buy has woken up the market and heading North for now!

[the juggler] 14/1/2015 14:46

Just topped up another 400 bought. No idea why it is in decline. No good reason. Fingers crossed it recovers again soon!

[edmundshaw] 14/1/2015 14:30

51000 trade at 488.1p marked as buy but looks a sell and one cause of the drop.

Added a small number more myself down here, there is some chart support around the level 460-490p I think.

[salpara111] 14/1/2015 12:54

Sentiment driving the stock down.
If you were to give it a similar rating to the likes of Capita then the share price would be over £9.
There is going to be quite a bit of volatility in the markets over the next 4 months in the run up to the election and I guess that a Labour win would be viewed as negative for IRV with their large outsourcing business.

[wad collector] 14/1/2015 12:10

Added some more at 499. I cannot fathom this fall , hard to believe the Middle East contracts are not going to be honoured. I don't supppose there will be many new contracts awarded at the moment , but the timescales are so long that it makes no sense for the share price to tumble this much.
If I cannot see any logic , then I sometimes resort to a traders approach of assuming it is illogical volatility and buy at what appears to be low. I have rather a lot of these and probably should not have so many eggs in one basket so hope I can make a quick 5-10% on the last 2 days buys. The worry of a catastrophic share price collapse is impossible to completely deny , but there are few truely safe havens.
If I am right and there is no logic then might expect to see some director buys.

[nurdin] 14/1/2015 11:09

Baffled by the decline to under £5....makes no sense

[jlo10] 14/1/2015 10:57

Is this an oiler
Heading under 500

[edmundshaw] 13/1/2015 13:55

Added also just above that. Irrational indeed, but IRV can be a bit volatile - in a small way...

[wad collector] 13/1/2015 13:23

515 limit triggered. An irrational weakness in my view.

[wad collector] 12/1/2015 17:25

Tickled but did not bite my 515 limit buy . You never know...

[philo124] 09/1/2015 19:14

Quite a retreat from the high.

[wad collector] 09/1/2015 17:52

It does look tempting again. It seems to me that less bullishness is appropriate after such a good rise.

[salpara111] 09/1/2015 17:37

Well, I have set a limit order for 505p so will have to wait and see if it gets filled next week.
I still like the business but am not as bullish as I was when I bought heavily below £2 several years ago.

[philo124] 07/1/2015 10:25

Thanks Guys.

[wad collector] 07/1/2015 10:20

"Since the Interim Management Statement on 12 November 2014, the Group has continued to perform in-line with expectations. "
As you say , that will do.
Hard to predict the oil price effects ; a lot depends on the duration of the price dip ; which no-one can forecast any more than they forecasted the dip itself.
Happy to hold , and will add some more if any more weakness.

[edmundshaw] 07/1/2015 09:06

Trading update today seems fine.

Oil services is a relatively small part of the business, and ME business is unlikely to fall off a cliff - what is contracted is going to get done in all but extreme cases - so I still maintain this is undervalued given the progress over the last few years and the Initial earnings boost to come.

[thorpematt] 06/1/2015 20:15

i believe 23% revenue came from Arfica and Mid-east for last full year.

The issue is not so much about how much profits come from oil services directly but more about how those countries in the mid-east to which IRV is exposed are/ will be effected by a significant oil price drop.

Countries that rely on oil to any significant degree are seriously reliant on strong oil price to enable a balancing of their individual fiscal budgets. Whilst the sovereign wealth of country as a whole can be evened out (and indeed many have significant reserves to draw upon), it is also the case naturally that their economies are also affected and will suffer.

(In profitability terms), the present oil price is not sustainable for virtually all countries barring Kuwait and Norway. The oil majors cost of sales are well detailed in the Opec report if you want them, but ultimately the oil sector AND investment prospects in those countries made wealthy by it, is something of a damp squib at the moment.Thus both CLLN and IRV are likely to drag IMO until a bounce ensues.

[philo124] 05/1/2015 11:55

Fairenufski.

[lambeater] 05/1/2015 10:50

Bought in today at 544.50 spot, adding to recent purchases of REX and RICA, both on their lows. A little bird at Interserve has informed me of imminent good news that is not yet in the price. Although I am taking it with a pinch of salt, I am hedging my bets by dipping a toe in at what looks like a cheap price. Oil factors a tad overdone at these levels imo. Half weight on CLLN also contributed to my decision.