Inditherm Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 09/11/2013 12:28

Why have a 3.3% stake on Cfd's, why not just buy the shares outright. Or am I missing something?

[lfc4ever] 07/11/2013 11:06

£23m annually, or is that a total capital spend figure if everyone were to buy in one go? If the latter, what is the replacement cycle?

[davidosh] 06/11/2013 22:33

As Marlint111 raised the question a couple of days ago about the scale of the global medical market I asked the company what their overall view was of the addressable markets for the various medical products.

They think the UK market is worth about £23m so my £15m guesstimate was some way off.....Globally though they think it is in excess of £700m but they qualified that by stating that conservatively only half may be in countries that they would sensibly look to deliver into. I hope that helps but do remember that there are additional annual replacements and maintenance revenues to consider. So overseas sales and export potential is huge as we have not even covered 1% of the overall potential market yet.

[lfc4ever] 04/11/2013 10:33

have to remember here they have 1.5m in cash, so the mkt cap valuation is much less challenging that it could appear.

[davidosh] 01/11/2013 11:36

Shanklin...Yes always wise to keep it sensible but I was merely providing my thoughts not giving any specific figures that were target sales or profits so I think investors do need to set their own expectations and reasonable targets alongside sensible research. Most will do but I accept that some are jumping in without really knowing the company or its markets.

With regards to ESR....I could not agree more. In fact on pure valuation and assets it is still probably the cheapest of the ten. They all have different situations though and I like having a wide portfolio as it allows me to be patient and wait for each to harvest their potential.

[davidosh] 01/11/2013 11:28

marlint111....The size of the global market is considerably more than £38m and growing rapidly in the developing countries. The UK market alone must be worth £15m and there are annual maintenance contracts to think about.

That said if IDM get 20% of the global market I will be ecstatic and even £7.6m in revenues will convert to a very healthy bottom line profit figure sufficient to see the share price five or six times higher than it is now. They have huge tax losses to carry forward too !

[shanklin] 01/11/2013 11:22

David

I understand where you're coming from with IDM. It was certainly cheap when you started buying it - the only question I have relates to whether the share price is now getting ahead of itself. IMHO, if all goes well, IDM will multibag from current levels; if however IDM just trudges along, as their financials have in the past, their share price could fall significantly.

Given the moves yesterday and today in the share price of several of the shares you listed in your top 10, I suspect your influence on other investors is quite significant. Hopefully the people following you into these shares understand what they are getting involved in, on a company by company basis, rather than just buying in blindly. For example, I certainly think ESR is particularly good value even if a little illiquid.

I'm still holding a fair few IDM, which I would never have bought had it not been for your very helpful steer, so I'd probably be wiser not highlighting my perception of the risks with IDM, but it seemed the right thing to do.

All the best. Cheers, Martin

[marlint111] 01/11/2013 11:13

My concern here would be the size of the market. I've seen numbers suggesting around £38 million pa globally. Even if Inditherm capture 20% of that (a big ask), that's only £7.6 million pa of turnover.

[davidosh] 01/11/2013 11:02

I'm sure its all due to David's ramping of it by comparing it with LOQ.

It could happen but its certainly quite an extrapolation to compare it with a 100-bagger.


Shanklin...I think ramping is a bit strong. I merely compared my thoughts on LOQ when I first bought with my thoughts on IDM at exactly the same stage as the two companies just crossed from break even into profit.

In actual fact LOQ have only tripled revenues and profits over the last five years and that has given a substantial rerating due to the size of market and patented products that they have to go at. The share price has multiplied by about 30 in that same period.

Inditherm have exactly the same scale and market opportunity ahead of them IMHO. They are already showing that sales can increase by at least 20% and a few big orders from hospitals can increase that figure much further and repeat useage is not unlike LOQ as they capture market share and attention as these products are sticky once in place in hospitals. They are also taking partners around the world to get the necessary licensing approvals and rollouts just like LOQ.

I see similarities enough to be confident that it was mispriced when trading in the pennies...from here who knows but with good growth in sales your spreadsheet will give you a figure that would certainly justify my multibagger aspirations even if it does not quite hit the LOQ level just a quarter of the way there would be a fine achievement and definitely not impossible.

[battlebus2] 01/11/2013 08:58

That was my pun lol :))

[shanklin] 01/11/2013 08:57

bb2,

Agreed although at this stage the only guaranteed warming up is limited to babies in neo-natal units.

[battlebus2] 01/11/2013 08:36

LOL you never know we could only be warming up!

[shanklin] 01/11/2013 08:32

LOL S13

I'm sure its all due to David's ramping of it by comparing it with LOQ.

It could happen but its certainly quite an extrapolation to compare it with a 100-bagger.

Cheers, Martin

[sundance 13] 31/10/2013 16:33

I suspect it's largely just the impact of David's post on the motley fool, a lot of people buying on the hope this is the next LOQ.

[lfc4ever] 31/10/2013 16:28

we all know that idm can move very quickly on very small volume, but is this something else? i have often wondered about the takeover potential, once they starting focussing on the medical business and became less of a rag bag of ideas.


anyone heard anything?

[extrader] 31/10/2013 15:07

Hi lfc4ever,

To enter data, click on the link.

Then scroll to bottom,where you'll be asked to input your data.

People's holdings are in the spreadsheet. I don't think carmensfella has SRT in his top ten, but others do.

HTH

[lfc4ever] 31/10/2013 14:59

how do you enter data?
Are you in srt at all?

[davidosh] 31/10/2013 12:12

Here is the final analysis and top ten btw...
Inditherm is a new entry for obvious reasons over the last six months
It is amazing however that a small cap like IDM features in so many top holdings across a hundred investors. If any of you have not done your entry then do please add it here..

[chuffin billy] 29/10/2013 16:25

hxxp://www.istanbulmedical.com/

[glennborthwick] 28/10/2013 12:00

indeed

David, put these on your watchlist; ARTA



Looks like a good turnaround story but early days. I reckon they need another 6 months of good newsflow but cashflow suggests a bottom

[davidosh] 28/10/2013 10:12

I am sure lots of companies do heated blankets or even mattresses for general purposes but are they specifically for the medical market and have they been approved for patient warming in the same way that IDM have been recommended by NICE...big difference ?

[chuffin billy] 28/10/2013 08:57

Company my brother uses overseas, not seen them myself but he said they are a Turkish manufacturer of heated mattresses, will try to find their name

[fugwit] 27/10/2013 18:34

chuffin billy, what is that product & who is behind it, some details would be useful and much appreciated.

[davidosh] 27/10/2013 17:00

chuffin billy....Who exactly has stepped in with a much cheaper product so far ? The healthcare and hospital market is incredibly slow moving due to all the hoops and hurdles you have to jump just to be considered for use on patients. Inditherm will be protected for a number of years once the commitment to purchase the product is made. The maintenance contracts and replacements over future years are valuable and so the recurring revenues are not mentioned but will increase sales significantly as they kick in.

[chuffin billy] 27/10/2013 15:03

Problem is, someone has appeared with a higher performing product and it is half the price, that point you mentioned "in the future" has rrived-IDM have created the market and then someone else will step in with a much lower price.