Indian Energy Share Discussion Threads

[htrocka] 01/5/2011 20:11

The market is certainly there...

[baldeagle5] 01/5/2011 14:14

Well we said it last week, so I'll say it again - the odds are shortening on the bid resolution as each week passes - maybe this week is our week?!

[baldeagle5] 27/4/2011 22:23

Has anyone actually spoken to RS recently?

[the stinger] 27/4/2011 21:48

Baldeagle - yep your prob not far off,,,,makes you wonder what plan b is though if they dont get it?...

[baldeagle5] 27/4/2011 21:11

Stinger - I can't do you wrong with your analysis there. I still maintain that 45p is required to appease Utilico and other shareholders. Let's hope RS gets it!

[the stinger] 27/4/2011 21:03

Tough one to call this now baldeagle,,,,DD done, 4 months has gone by,, no offer, other interested parties?,, an update to shareholders promised shortly - 3 weeks ago!........god knows whats going on lol.

I suspect that someone is willing to bid but at around 35-40p mark and the team are after better......will they get it though??

[baldeagle5] 27/4/2011 20:27

I sure hope that what Rupert Strachwitz pulls out of the hat is worth it! This wait is immense..........

[baldeagle5] 25/4/2011 18:14

Speculation on the iii board that finalisation will occur this week.... here's hoping so.

[htrocka] 24/4/2011 08:00

I took this from the `update`...posted this time last year..



`As such, the Board of IEL expects to have 41.3 MW of operating assets in place
for much of the forthcoming monsoon which should bring the Company to cash flow
neutrality in the year ending 31 March 2011. `





..and this was before the cut backs in overheads...

[finkus] 19/4/2011 22:24

I am pretty sure that there has been a better bit from another party after giving exclusivity to one party. That is a very obvious solution for the expiration of the exclusivity without any further comment.

[baldeagle5] 19/4/2011 13:48

Arden partners (the co broker) seem very happy to keep absorbing these at 28p - they obviously believe a bid is at a meaningfully higher level.

[htrocka] 18/4/2011 22:40

from the last company rns....


`Indian Energy has been engaging with a number of parties regarding the future of the business. In January the Company announced that it had entered into exclusivity with one party in order to enable them to complete due diligence on the Group. This exclusivity period has now expired and the party in question has concluded its due diligence. Whilst the Board believes that this party may well make an offer for the Company, it has received further approaches which the Company is now actively pursuing with a view to securing the best outcome for shareholders`


I personally doubt it will be this week, too many plurals, ie, engaged with a number of parties`....and received further approaches..the plural, ie number of parties, at the beginning of the paragraph indicates more than two, with...`further approaches`, at the end of the paragraph, infers to at least another two. So we could be talking of up to at least four possibly five parties. Whereas the first plural indicates that the parties were approached by the company whereby the final plural indicates that the parties themselves approached the company....so these are two sets of different parties. There`s going to be a lot of `horse trading` in the offing. My guess is probably another month. The rhetoric behind the last piece of the paragraph would suggest that the late bidders have put in the best bid..so far.

[naviskram] 18/4/2011 20:16

Nobody around today????

[solardave] 17/4/2011 22:31

Yup; I think that this is the week; am also expecting 45/47p. I hope that Htrocka is closer; his analysis is always very sound.

Dave

[baldeagle5] 17/4/2011 19:48

This week must surely be the week....?

[htrocka] 17/4/2011 19:31

ps...
`Coupled with India's steady growth, GWEC expects a total capacity of 174.6GW to be operational across Asia by the end of 2010`

Read more:

[htrocka] 17/4/2011 14:34

re-reading the Indian Energy `Proposed Issue of New warrants` document...it appears that had everything gone to plan when the issue of the `£2m loan facility` was made ....then, with the newly issued warrants as part of the deal, UTILICO would have acquired 30+% of the company..and rule 9 of the takeover code would have been invoked, which, no doubt, was their intention.....the problem is that to get to the 30+%, the warrants need to reach 70p by June 30th 2012. A possible reason this is taking so long is that a separate deal may be in the offing for UTILCO`s warrants. The fact that UTILICO has obtained such favourable heavy one sided deal in exchange for the `loan facility` gives an insight to their negotiating prowess.....hence my belief that they will be influential as to the final outcome.....especially with `big guns` recently buying into UTILICO.




UTILICO have their own shareholders to concider and will some how have to justify buying a 20% stake at circa 80p.

[baldeagle5] 16/4/2011 13:39

In todays Telegraph - SSE sold 96.8mw for £173m - almost $3m per mw - applying the same multiple to Indian's comes to £73m!

[htrocka] 15/4/2011 21:59

My gut feeling that an important potential bidder may well be UTILICO....the reasoning being that any potential buyer would have to settle UTILCO`s loan facility so as to eliminate them from the temporary voting seat on the board while the loan remains unpaid. As the major shareholders,. this would not be to UTILICo`s interest....hence may well be the final party that settles the final outcome. The `due diligent` result may just merely give a target to aim at...

[finkus] 15/4/2011 14:51

Baldeagle5 - maybe there are more bidders out there for a better price. That could of course slow down the closing. There might be a couple of investors out there looking for opportunities like IEL.

[baldeagle5] 14/4/2011 19:33

Bookie - IEL is not LDP and £2m does not change the figures.
IMO 45p in the not distant future.

[bookiebuster] 14/4/2011 18:23

Property/equipment figures recorded at cost are not good indicators of resale value. Last year LDP recorded £75m worth of property plant & equipment on its balance sheet and has since entered administration with a resale value put on its assets of £6m

IELs last results showed a shortfall of £0.8m net payables and total debt of £19.6m so its accurate to say -£20m debt/liabilities

[baldeagle5] 14/4/2011 17:51

Has anybody actually called the company to ask how close we are to a resolution?

Bookie - the debt was £18m at the last set of results not £22m. Property, plant & Equip was in the books at £30m - this is the actual cost to the co.
You omit to mention that the co is now to move to cash-flow breakeven - implying debt will not grow form hereon out.

Using Htrocka's no's of $41.3 x 30% uplift = $53.3/$1.6 fx rate = £33m - £18m debt = £15m/25m shares = 60p a share.
Talk is a deal will be done at circa 45p which seems appropriate.

[bookiebuster] 13/4/2011 22:12

The last set of results showed debt of approximately £20m at Sept 2010

BPs sale set a £24m benchmark for IELs assets provided they are of similar standard. This may be optimistic given BPs ability as a major to negotiate a good price whereas IEL is operating from a weak position running on empty with debt up to its eyeballs

The interested party was not that interested having declined to make an offer after carrying out due diligence so that lifeline can be binned. Management say they are working on securing the company's survival, which does not sound overly positive

[htrocka] 13/4/2011 21:34

It`s not rocket science...in 2009 BP sold similar farms at $1m p/MW..selling 41.3 MW, would obviously be $41.3m.....minus,the debt at circa $22m...lets say round numbers...$20m. However. since BP sold, the price of wind farms has increasesd by 30%...so we`re upto $26m..circa(round numbers) £16m....a fair value,in my opinion, would be circa 60p a share......remember this will have to be sanctioned by shareholders who paid in excess of 80p a share....should be interesting.