Indian Energy Share Discussion Threads

[the stinger] 04/6/2011 15:24

We should have a reckon list.... - Mine is..


Greenko @ 50p per share....... (sticking me neck out))

[baldeagle5] 04/6/2011 12:30

Good analysis htrocka. This has been an interesting few months....
What price do you see them going for? I understand calls for near NAV but if I were a bidder, I'd want a discount to NAV. Vice versa if they really want the company then it has to be voted through & Utilico hold the cards here.
A fair and sensible middle ground would be 40p-42p but I still think it will be 38p and the other, original 'exclusive' may then come back and push it higher.

[htrocka] 04/6/2011 11:32

Take a look at the major sharholder in this list.




A smilar scenario to IEL ( and shareholding) whereby they had the final say as to the outcome of a takeover.



They rejected the offer...look in late January...see how this was reflected in the share price




It`s comforting to know that UTILICO have an agenda that revolves around the sharevalue.. and the entry point and shareholding to WIND must have been at a much higher level(as in th IEL scenario)...which was, at the time of the approach, trading at 44p....and they turned down 67p....as being `undervalued`

[htrocka] 04/6/2011 10:30

The last rns stated `an exclusivity agreement`....this must be in additional to the one entered at the beginning of the year....which, when completed, the CEO suggested that an offer may be in the offing.....this was then followed by `further approaches`,...from `a number of parties` culminating in yet another `Exclusivity` period..I`m curious to know if these `Exclusivity` deals work both ways....in that IEL are obviously aware of the intended offer price of the first applicants....would this info be passed onto the second enquirers?. I can only conclude that the second applicants must be aware of what`s `on the table` prior to application...otherwise there would be no point in pursuing a further `Exclusivity` period. If the second applicants are successful...then we have a `premium`...not only to the `current share price`...but to the original applicants price also. With JULY 15th on the horizon...and the issue of results for the last period..we`ll all soon know the score. The `Exclusivity` case studies I`ve researched have generally been of contractual 60day periods and do not preclude the companies from functioning from the normal day to day business... The latest/current one conveniently taking us to the end of June.


I thought I`d post a sample of the implication surrounding `Excusivity` periods.




ps...showmethemoney.....a good post.

[the stinger] 03/6/2011 14:02

Quite possible 100% rise from the current share price ..

[baldeagle5] 03/6/2011 11:04

I thought that too....

[the stinger] 03/6/2011 07:47

Nice article there,,,goes to show the value in iel,,,, may even be greenko who's in exclusive talks??

[showmethehoney] 02/6/2011 15:24

Sector related................



Greenko to raise £50m for wind farm projects

By David Blackwell

Published: June 2 2011 04:34 | Last updated: June 2 2011 04:34

Greenko, the Aim-quoted Indian clean energy specialist, is to raise £50m ($82m) to expand its wind farm projects.

The company has secured concessions to develop wind farms in three states, taking its portfolio under development to more than 1GW

It has also extended its partnership with General Electric, which is to supply and maintain 1.6MW turbines specifically designed to make the most of the lower wind speeds in India. They are 85 metres high, with blades 80 metres in diameter, and should keep the cost of generation relatively low.

The £50m is being raised through the placing of more than 22.2m shares at 225p each, a discount of about 4 per cent to Tuesday's closing price. The directors have agreed to subscribe a further £5m for 2.2m shares within a year of the completion of the placing.

The fund raising marks only the second time the company has returned to the market after flotation in 2007 at 98p a share. Early last year it raised £72m at 140p.

A recent report on Indian power companies from Matrix said growing problems over the supply of coal to Indian generators "gives us increasing confidence that the investment opportunity in the UK-listed Indian power companies remains attractive". Ambrian, an independent broker, said Greenko offered "a more de-risked proposition" than some, and said its wind assets were likely to be at the top end of the average performance in India. The shares closed down 0.62p at 234.6p on Wednesday.

Wind power has become an increasingly important part of Greenko's overall portfolio. When the company joined Aim it was specialising in hydro power and biomass.

In April it announced concessions in the south-western state of Karnataka that allowed it to build a 300MW wind farm. The first stage is expected to be completed, and electricity to be sold in September.

News of further concessions in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan will add a further 650MW of wind power to the group's portfolio, which now totals 1.6GW. Tim Bowen, Greenko's, investor relations director, said that wind had grown in importance, but long-term portfolio would be balanced half and half between wind and hydro.

"Wind technology has advanced, and that's why we have plunged in," he said. "We can see the returns that we want."

The company also said it expected to meet market expectations for the year to March 31 when it reports preliminary results in August. Arden, its broker, is forecasting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of €25m, up from €5m in 2008-09.

The latest fundraising is expected to result in 540MW of wind power being operational in two to three years time, generating enough cash to carry on rolling out the programme. Arden is predicting that if all goes to plan, ebitda should rise to between €200m and €250m, suggesting a rise in the share price to 500p

[baldeagle5] 02/6/2011 15:05

You seem to be well informed Htrocka - you close to the co?

[htrocka] 02/6/2011 06:13

My view is that he `wind farm sale` threat...is a lever over UTILICO`s demands during this process...that`s all.

[showmethehoney] 01/6/2011 23:59

Thanks for that htrocka.....well remembered. Due date for Utilico loan now January 2012

Next month resaults not this month as I said in an earlier post, but im sure you knew that anyway.

They do seem to be sticking by their mantra. Will be interesting to see if an offer is not agreed how they will go about selling off wind farms. Wouldnt that be counter productive for expansion. If they had the dolar they would buy up the 250 mw available to them, surely. Ideal scenario would be exclusivity is with a big Co. with plenty of cash to finance expansion.

[htrocka] 01/6/2011 21:42

It sounds as if they`re still `horse trading`...by indicating an `either or answer`...however, the company indicates that it favours a plan that moves forward with the original 300MW/2013 programme....I`m personally with this one. If the company can pull this off, the share value should recover dramatically...this scenario will also favour UTILIC0...but the outstanding warrants may become a stumbling block...hence the strong possibility of an all cash settlement.What price? I can only quote the CEO, who referred to the 53p NAV value in a previous statement....at least we know what the target is.

from the recent company rns...(yes...it`s still mantra from the IPO prospective...but it`s still being quoted.....and would appear to be their main objective)

`Indian Energy's medium term objective is to own a portfolio of wind farms in India with 300 MW of annual generating capacity by Q1 2013`

[euclid5] 01/6/2011 20:54

intersting after reading the RNS for shareholdings that the above big boys bought in Sept 2009 after the IPO around the 80p area

surely they would want to break even if a TO was placed on the table soon

good to see NAV circa + 50p - so we may see an offer of + 30p from where we are today

[baldeagle5] 01/6/2011 19:25

What price do u expect Htrocka?

[htrocka] 01/6/2011 19:00

baldeagle...what planet are you on...check the list below....they`re still there....and they all paid `top dolar` for their percentages.




Utilico Emerging Markets Ltd.: 5,197,792 20.38%
Scottish Widows: 1,116,791 4.38%
Credit Suisse Private Banking: 1,015,600 3.98%
Union Bancaire Privee: 899,869 3.53%
AXA Investment Managers: 843,000 3.30%

The above shareholdings are as at 7th March 2011 based upon a share register analysis

[baldeagle5] 01/6/2011 15:08

Whats the betting on the end price then - I'm 38p

[liarspoker] 01/6/2011 14:58

What would be interesting is that the party that is doing due diligence now makes an offer only to be bettered by an offer made by the party that looked at IEL a few weeks ago.

A bidding war in other words.

We can only hope. :O)

[baldeagle5] 01/6/2011 10:25

With the look of the share price, NAV & Utilico issue my guess is the figures late 30's. Should know soon enough

[htrocka] 01/6/2011 10:15

showmethemoney...the `link` came with the orginal EGM notice to shareholders regarding UTILICO`s initial £2m loan...that has since been increased to £2.5m...with a delayed settlement date.

[htrocka] 01/6/2011 06:10

Here`s another estimate...

[showmethehoney] 31/5/2011 23:02

23 December 2010

Indian Energy Limited

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2010

Net asset value per share of 53p (2009 H1: 58p).




Year ended 31st of March 2011 results should be this month. Will be interesting to see NAV

[showmethehoney] 31/5/2011 22:33

htrocka - 31 May'11 - 13:32 - 547 of 550

Personally, I can`t see UTILICO the largest shareholders,who bought in at 80p+, losing control of this one, especially now they have a seat on the board...and am certain they`ll be involved in the outcome.

UTILICO having a seat on the board....Do you have the link for that please htrocka?

Interesting articals from Bloom & WSJ.

[htrocka] 31/5/2011 18:09

baldeagle5...I`d rather not say..but what I do know is that any where on this planet..and you`ll be pushed to find comercial wind farms changing hands at less than $1m/MW....hence circa $41.3m...minus (let`s say) $22m of debt....that`s about $20m ( £12m/25mshares)......about 48p a share....then there`s intrinsic value of non binding (but negotiable) projects going forward. I`ll be happy with 50p.





`we are talking weeks....not months.`....sound very positive.



word is getting round...
ADVFN competitor.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4154935


Even the Yanks know about it..

[liarspoker] 31/5/2011 15:07

I bought a few first thing this am. Not a huge amount but enough to keep me interested whether the end result is next month or next year.