Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[1712notout] 28/12/2016 14:09

Invoice 'final forms'
Anyone for completion accounts ?
Buy
Hold
Wait
All the best
🈲🈲🈲🈲7538;

[1712notout] 28/12/2016 14:08

An EV

Of $250m

On a net debt free e and p

With significant arrears
Capital recovery
Tiny marginal capex to add 15.000 bopd
And lots of interest from trade


With analysts at 4x
CPR at 6x
And host wi the same


Bermuda corporate law like the Wild West IMO to boot

Hence
Buy
Hold
Wait
All the best
🚀🚀🚀🚀8640;🚀

[paul the tube] 28/12/2016 13:54

Re 538041 I couldn't agree more....

[1712notout] 28/12/2016 11:49

Invoice 'final forms'
Anyone for completion accounts ?
Buy
Hold
Wait
All the best
🈲🈲🈲🈲7538;

[1712notout] 28/12/2016 11:46

An EV

Of $250m

On a net debt free e and p

With significant arrears
Capital recovery
Tiny marginal capex to add 15.000 bopd
And lots of interest from trade


With analysts at 4x
CPR at 6x
And host wi the same


Bermuda corporate law like the Wild West IMO to boot

Hence
Buy
Hold
Wait
All the best
🚀🚀🚀🚀8640;🚀

[oilman63] 28/12/2016 11:41

Just to add

Bob you are obviously concerned about some of the points in my above post because you got members of teambob to ask the same questions at the AGM in Dublin.

But let's not let the real world interfere with the picture you want to paint.

[1712notout] 28/12/2016 11:24

​The KRG feels that this offers a higher guaranteed interest rate to the Turkish Side plus the potential for a significant uncapped upside as well. The KRG wishes to allocate $800m from this amount to the Turkish contractors, $94m to settle the back costs of the Shaikan 20% Government Interest, and the balance of $1,000 to be received over 18 months also to be allocated to the Turkish contractors to complete the projects.
==
This On the 19/3
Agreement in principle with GKP on second amendment etc 16/3

All good stuff

Buy
Hold
All the best
Simples
🍾🍾🍾🍾7870;

[oilman63] 28/12/2016 10:55

Just a couple of points Bob.

When did Dodds leave MOL ???

What is the current relationship between MOL and Cashti ???

What are MOLs NEW managements thoughts on plans going forward for SH ???

How close are we to getting 55k a day ???

Where is the money coming from to take us passed 55k ???

I would like to see your working out and timelines.

[hearts1] 28/12/2016 10:52

Is there a competition for most boring post ever today?

[nestoframpers] 28/12/2016 10:46

The problem, according to Azzam Alwash, an Iraqi-American civil engineer who has served as an adviser on the dam, is that “it’s just in the wrong place.” Completed in 1984, the dam sits on a foundation of soluble rock.

To keep it stable, hundreds of employees have to work around the clock, pumping a cement mixture into the earth below. Without continuous maintenance, the rock beneath would wash away, causing the dam to sink and then break apart. But Iraq’s recent history has not been conducive to that kind of vigilance.

[pocopicu] 28/12/2016 09:49

What an obvious massive buy this is. Great for those of us who can afford to buy and hold :-)Shame for those who can't :-(;-)

[pocopicu] 28/12/2016 09:47

Good morning genuines :-)

[1712notout] 28/12/2016 09:31

Personally I think the sale price will be higher than £5.10

I wonder if the mnr closed that deal?

Buy
Hold
Especially
Hold
All the best
🚀⛄A039;🚀⛄️🚀 924;️🚀;⛄️8640;⛄️🚀🚀😊😊8522;😊

[1waving] 28/12/2016 09:26

.
Iraqi Kurdistan will not reduce oil exports under OPEC agreement: official

Posted on December 28, 2016 by Editorial Staff in Economy, Economy, Oil & Gas


HEWLÊR-Erbil, Iraq’s Kurdistan region,— A Kurdish official dismissed claims that Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has shown willingness to abide by an accord reached between OPEC members in early December to reduce oil exports.

“The Kurdistan Region will continue its oil exports as before and has not decided to abide by the OPEC accord to reduce the exportation of oil,” Dilshad Shaaban, deputy head of the energy and natural resources committee in the Kurdistan Parliament, told Rudaw on Monday.

His remark comes as Iraq’s Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi had claimed at a meeting in Egypt that the majority of international oil companies alongside the Kurdistan Region would commit to reduce oil exports in order to fulfill the OPEC accord.

“Kurdistan is within Iraq and we are in agreement,” Bloomberg quoted al-Luaibi, as saying at a meeting of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OAPEC.

Shaaban added that the Kurdistan Region is not a member of OPEC and currently has no oil deal with Baghdad to force it to abide by the agreement.

He explained that “there is only one way through which the KRG will commit to reduce its oil exports in case of it reaches an oil accord with Baghdad. But it is unlikely to happen.”

According to the November oil production and export report from the KRG, the region has exported an average of 587,646 barrels of oil per day.




.

[1712notout] 28/12/2016 08:57

Personally I think the sale price will be higher than £5.10

I wonder if the mnr closed that deal?

Buy
Hold
Especially
Hold
All the best
🚀⛄A039;🚀⛄️🚀 924;️🚀;⛄️8640;⛄️🚀🚀😊😊8522;😊

[ny boy] 28/12/2016 08:35

Super move to 510p has begun, either enjoy the ride or be extremely upset, sitting and watching the rise. EVRH is moving up nicely btw.

[gkphero] 28/12/2016 08:28

Here's the final draft attachment from -



"Strictly Private and Confidential 19th March 2016


Explanatory Notes Regarding the KRG Requests and Offers
Prepared for HE Minister of Energy and Natural Resources
Ankara, Republic of Turkey



Background:

Since 2012 the Turkish and the KRG Sides have established strongbilateral strategic and long-term relationships includingalignment of their interests on many critical issues of interest to both side. Their cooperation, amongst other things, has paved the way for KRG’s independent oil exports to the international market.

During the last couple of years, many internal financial problems have occurred that contributed to KRG’s budgetary hardships.The impact of these problems was compounded by the collapse of the oil price in 2015. This coupled with the arrival of ISIS, the flux of Syrian refugees and the IDPs has resulted in aserious economicdeterioration within the KR. Recognising these difficulties, the Turkish Side hasfrom time to time extended direct financial assistance to the KRG and also agreed to the deferment of TEC’s entitlementsin relation to the operations of Kirkuk - Ceyhanpipeline and other services that TEC offers to the KRG at the Ceyhan Terminal.

To date, the total amount of the Loan paid to the KRG by Turkish Side stands at $1,150m (the payment was made in 3 instalment of $500m, $500m and $150m). No interest was mentioned on the first Loan, but the agreed interest on the second and the third Loans is around 5% to 6%. From the outset, it has been the understanding of both Sides that the Loans shall be repaid either in Kind (for example by assignment ofoil and gas assets) or in cash when the KRG’s cash flow improves in the future. In addition to these Loans, now the total amount due to TECfor services provided to the KRG is in access of $514m, and this amount is rising every month.

More Assistance Needed:

In addition to the above amounts, the KRG now needs further financial assistance from the Turkish Side, particularly with respect to the following matters:

A) Payments to Turkish Construction and other Turkish Contractor:
The economic cooperation between the two Sides has led to the Turkish private sector companies to contract with the KRG for many construction projects throughout the KR. However, with the deterioration of KRG’s financialsituation, the Turkish contractors have not received any payments during most part of 2014 and all of 2015. The work on almost all the projects has been suspended for some time now, so the KRG needsimmediate funding of around $800mplus a further $1,000mover the next 18 months topay the contractors to restart and complete these vital projects.

B) ChemChemal and KorMor Gas project:
For various reasons, including KRG’s financial problemsthe current Operator of these fields has not been paid by the KRG for its entitledremuneration, which the Operator estimated to be a very large amount, but even by KRG’s own calculations the income realised by the KRG, but withheld from the Operator is around $700m, which needs to be settled soon, or at least by instalment over the next 9 to 12 months. So, the KRG seeks financial assistance from the Turkish Side to reengage the Operator to boost the gas production from these assets for export.

C) Implementing the Gas and Oil Pipeline Constructions:
In order to tie in the new oil discoveries like Shaikan to boost KRG’s oil export and to construct a new strategic gas pipeline to export a 20 to 30 BCM of gas from the ChemChemal/KorMor and Miran/BnaBawi projects, the KRG needs to fund the pipeline infrastructure, particularly to enable the gas assets to be developed within the next 2 year. The total costs of these pipeline is estimated to be around $750m, butfor this purposes the KRG will put in place a tariff-based system to enable this infrastructure to be financed. However, the payment to the Operator referred to in item (C) above is required to gain confidence that there will be a gas flow and that the gas pipeline can generate an income from the tariff payments.

D) Other Needs
The KRG is also in need of around $540 to support KRG’S reduced budget shortfalls and to protectthe 20% Shaikan Government Interest due to KRG’s non-payments.

In summary, in addition to the current Loan amounts and the TEC unpaid entitlements, the KRG requires a total amount of $3,740mto fund these requirement, hence a total of $4,704m.


The Way Forward:

There are 3 Options in for the Turkish Side to consider in expanding its support for the KRG side.

Option 1: Extend the additional Loans of $3,740m to the KRG in the same way as the existing Loans, to be repaid as the financial position of KRG improves, butperhaps with a clearer defined schedule for the Loan repayment, for example commencing in 2019 and repaid by 2021.

Option 2: Extend the additional Loans of $3,740m to the KRG provided that the KRG allocates certainidentifiable streams of cash flow from an agreed list of Oil and Gas Assets, or even some Oil Cargos in Ceyhanto the Turkish Side to ensure that all the Loans plus agreed interests are repaid, again the time line to be agreed.

Option 3: Rather than just being offered the cash flows of the Oil and Gas Assets, the KRG prefers and proposes that the Turkish Side be assignedthe long-term working interests and benefits of these Assets. In this case the Turkish Side may benefit more from any upside profitability of these Assets, but the KRG will also offer a guarantee to the Turkish Side, against any possibility ofunderperformance of the Assets. For, example the Turkish Side can be guaranteed that the performance of the Assets shall not at any time be less than a level of minimum returns as proposed later onin these Explanatory Notes.

A Fair Deal for Both Sides:

Here are a few points to keep in mind in supporting the KRG in this regard:

• The current Loans are just interest bearing Loans with no pressure or demand for repayments, except if and when the KRG’s financial position improves in the future.

• The relationship of the parties is strategic and not financial or just economical, the relationship will last well beyond any projects, we are neighbours and more…

• The outcome of any financial support must not undermine the position of either Side, a Win-Win scenario is needed, hence the political decision makers on both Sides must be able at all time to be proud of the deal and be able to defend the outcome.

• Regardless of which of the 3 Options the Turkish Side may wish to go for, there are a number of significant direct benefits for Turkey, for example a quick and early access to gas supply of 10 BCM to 20 BCM (and more in the long run) from the KR to the Turkish market. The Turkish financial support to the KRG also directly benefits a large number of Turkish contractors. Also, if Option 3 mentioned above is exercised then there would be the potential for the Turkish Side to participate in a number of profitable Assets, with any downside being underwritten by the KRG.

• Of course, it goes without saying, all of this support also greatly benefits the KRG Side (a deserving dependable partner of Turkey in many ways) and helps to ease the pressure on the KR and to maintain its stability, which is currently under threat due to the KRG’s financial difficulties.

Accompanying these Explanatory Notes, I have enclosed the following presentations to be considered with respect to either Option 2 or more likely Option 3as outlined on the next page.


1. Document on Tawke, TaqTaq, Shaikan Asset Summary Valuation
a. This documentcovers the valuation of the 20% Government Interests in each of these three producing Fields
b. TaqTaq is based on remaining 2P–reference Genel RNS dated 29 Feb 2016 - Mc Daniel CPR Report
c. Tawke is based on 2P remaining reserves – reference DNO RNS dated 18 March 2016 – De Golyer and MacNaughton CPR Report
d. Shaikan is based on remaining 2P reserves –reference GKP RNS dated 1 October 2015 - ERC Equipoise CPR Report
e. All the development costs for TaqTaq and Tawke are fully carried by the other PSC holders
f. The development costs of the 20% Government Interest so far has been carried by the IOC holder, but on assignment of the interest the past costs must be repaid (around $94m outstanding) and all future forward costs related to this 20% must be covered by the its holder. The overall future net cash callson this asset are very small as can be seen in the presentations attached to these notes.

2. Document on Khurmala Summary Valuation
a. This document covers the valuation of 50% net Working Interest that the KRG Side proposes to offer to its Turkish Side
b. Khurmala is basedon the 2P reserves of 2200 mmbbls in the Shallow Reservoirs and 898 mmbbls of potential reserves in the undeveloped Deep Reservoirs
c. The reserves and the development costs are KRG’s own estimates, which are also consistent with all the available reports from KAR.
d. There is a significant requirement for funding to develop these reservoirs, so the Turkish Side has to be prepared to also contribute to the development costs of these assets.
e. In 2013-2015 period certain proposals were made with respect to these assets, but because of the Loans/new financial support requested we now have doubled the profit share to ensure that the repayments are aliened with cash payment considerations.

3. Document on Miran and BnaBawi Valuations
a. This document covers the valuation of KRG’s share of free cash flow from Miran & Bina Bawi Fields. This includes 100% Upstream share of the KRG and 15% cash flow that the KRG expects to generate from the Midstream part of these projects.
b. The valuation is based on the assessments made by Genel, the Operator of the two fields.
c. The upside potential of these projects is not reflected in these valuations.

The KRG’s Offers:

Option 1 or 2 are easy to deal with should the Turkish Side choose either of these options. Therefore, below we are only discussingOption 3 for the Turkish Side to consider. It is recognized that there are many uncertainties with respect to oil reserves, and the costs andthe profitability of these assets. There are also uncertainties with respect to the future oil prices. Therefore, the KRG proposes to underwrite the downside of the collective cash flowsof each group of projects as outlined in the three-part proposalbelow.

Part 1 Proposal: The KRG proposes that the Turkish Side considers converting the current outstanding Loans and the TEC outstanding entitlements to a long-term investment in the TaqTaq, Tawke and Shaikan producing Fields. The 3 Assets together are expected to yield $1,829 based on a 6% discount (6% interest rate), which is the current maximum level of interest agreed by both Sides. The KRG proposes to transfer these assets to the Turkish Side on an 8% discount basis(i.e. for $1,664),and the KRG shall at all times guarantee that the yield of these assets shall not be less than 6%, and any shortfall shall be paid for in the form of top-up cash flows from KRG’s remaining share of oil production derived from these assets. The upside return shall not be capped up to 12% and shall be kept by the Turkish Side, but only if the return is in excessof 12% the balance will go back to the KRG.

The KRG is not requesting any new payments towards these assets, but wishes to offsetthe $1,664m consideration against the current $1,150 Loans and against let us say $514m of payments due or fall due to TEC.

Part 2 Proposal: KRG proposes that the Turkish Side considers advancinga new payment to the KRG, and this time not as aloan, but against KRG’s 100% Upstream free cash flows in Miran and BnaBawi projects, plus 15% of KRG’s free cash flow from the Midstream part of the same projects. These two streams offree cash flow are expected to generate $2,705m at 7.5% discount (7.5% interest rate). The KRG proposes to transfer these assets to the Turkish Side on a 10% discount basis (i.e. for $1,894m) and the KRG shall at all times guarantee that the yield of these assets shall not be less than 7.5%, and any shortfall shall be paid for in theform of top-up payments from KRG’s remaining share of the cash flow derived from the Midstream part of these assets. The upside benefit derived from the assignments shall not be capped up to 14% and shall be kept by the Turkish Side, but only if the return is in excess of 14% the balance will go back to the KRG.

The KRG feels that this offers a higher guaranteed interest rate to the Turkish Side plus the potential for a significant uncapped upside as well. The KRG wishes to allocate $800m from this amount to the Turkish contractors, $94m to settle the back costs of the Shaikan 20% Government Interest, and the balance of $1,000 to be received over 18 months also to be allocated to the Turkish contractors to complete the projects.


Part 3 Proposal: KRG proposes that the Turkish Side considers advancing a further new payment to the KRG, again not as a loan, but against KRG assigning 50% net working interests in the Khurmala Field - in both the Shallow and the Deep reservoirs. The current operator to retain 30% working interest and the KRG to hold 20% carried interest. The field requires investment to develop it further and increase its production potential. The KRG requires $1,146m from the Turkish Side against this assignment and will also offset$688m against the outstanding development costs incurred by KAR. The figure of $1,146m is based on a 15% discount, but the KRGshall also at all times guarantee that the yield of these assets shall not be less than 10%, and any shortfall shall be paid for in the form of top-up payments from KRG’s share of the cash flow derived from the same assets. The upside benefit derived from these assignments shall not be cappedup to 17% and shall be kept by the Turkish Side, butif the return is in excess of 17% the balance will go back to the KRG

The KRG feels that this offer is very fair considering the downside would be capped at not less than 13% rate of return to the Turkish Side, plus the potential for a significant uncapped upside as well. The KRG wishes to allocate $446m from this amount to fund its current income shortfalls and will allocate the balance ($700m) to settle the Operator of the ChemChemal/KorMor entitlements.



Your Excellency, I thank you for your attention and dedication to these matters, and I really look forward to discussing these proposals in person with you during the second half of next week, and to hopefully to conclude them shortly after that.


With my best regards,
Ashti Hawrami
Minister of Natural Resources
KRG- 19th March 2016"

[gkphero] 28/12/2016 08:25

Looks like it's time to buy again here.

[gkphero] 28/12/2016 08:25

The above email was sent on 19th March 2016.

Funny that GKP needed to be "quickly restructured" around that time.