Greene King Share Discussion Threads

[jon827] 19/1/2012 18:00

52 week high for this today, is something good happing?

[wad collector] 19/1/2012 17:57

3 yr high now , but still way off the 2007 peaks .One day I will be back in the blue ; not this year !

[jashunter] 17/1/2012 09:57

Encouraging Interim Management Statement. All positive.

[stevemarkus] 05/12/2011 10:43

Increase in debt of £91M, purchase of CPUB £96M. Plus a few other incidental capital expenses, pretty much seems to spell it out for me. Overall I felt the results were quite strong.

Cheers,
Steve.

[jeffian] 01/12/2011 16:34

That's a bit harsh, bend1pa. The things you mention are a direct reflection of their acquisition on the Capital Pub Company. The increase in debt is balanced by a corresponding increase in the assets acquired and all the comparable trading figures are up if you strip out acquisition costs.

[bend1pa] 01/12/2011 14:12

Pretty mediocre results after all that with slight dip in H/T eps. That debt pile is starting to creep up once more. They really do need to keep a handle on that. I suspect another rights issue may be in the offing in the not too distant future

[jeffian] 30/11/2011 16:29

Will also be a reflection of MARS results out today as their businesses are very similar models.

[bend1pa] 30/11/2011 16:13

Decent rise today in line with the market which also had a great day. Doesn't look like tomorrow's results will disappoint.

[libertine] 30/11/2011 12:23

Yes tomorrow

[yf23_1] 30/11/2011 12:03

I thought interims were today, must be tomorrow then.

[libertine] 14/11/2011 09:00

Pubs and restaurants defy the gloom, says Peach Factory
14 November 2011 | 07:47am
StockMarketWire.com - Leading pub and restaurant groups saw collective like-for-like sales ahead 0.9% in October, according to latest Coffer Peach Business Tracker figures.

Total sales, which include the effect of new openings, were up 5.1%, In contrast, retail sales figures for the month were down.

The modest uplift comes despite bleaker news for the economy and consumer confidence.

However, the October figures also come on the back of a 2.8% like-for-like rise in September, a 0.6% increase in August and a 1.0% advance in July.

"People may be reluctant to go out and buy more 'stuff', but they are still willing to go out to eat and drink. It's about the experience, especially if it's good quality and great value," commented Peter Martin of Peach Factory, which produces the sector Tracker, in partnership with KPMG, UBS and the Coffer Group. In all, 24 companies contribute data.

"Quality is still the main factor in choosing where to go out, but value is becoming increasingly important, and with the cost of eating-in and eating-out narrowing in many parts of the market, it remains an attractive proposition even for those with families," Martin added.

Bigger operators were continuing to invest in their concepts and offers, and competition remained fierce, he said. Consumers were increasingly turning to brands, which offered quality, value, consistency and reliability.

As a result, the eating and drinking out-of-home market had continued to out perform the retail sector.

Trevor Watson, director at Davis Coffer Lyons: said "The figures show that operators have been able to sustain and indeed grow top line sales. Some operators have benefited from the unseasonably warm and dry autumn. Management emphasis continues to be focused on defending margins against a background of rising costs in just about every key line of the P&L account." Richard Hathaway, KPMG's Head of Travel, Leisure & Tourism, added: "Despite the turmoil in the eurozone, the performance of Britain's leading pub and restaurant operators remains remarkably robust. Although like-for-like growth remains modest, continued positive figures in the current environment are a credit to the quality of the sector's brands and customer offerings. Total sales growth of 5.1% demonstrates that operators continue to invest in new sites and upgrading or refreshing of existing portfolios.

"Looking forward, however, weak consumer confidence, high inflation and the on-going squeeze on personal finances remain the biggest threats to underlying growth for pub and restaurant operators and, unfortunately, these are not likely to go away anytime soon. The Chancellor's Autumn Statement will therefore be eagerly awaited and the sector will be keen to see some growth stimulus measures that would encourage confidence during the festive season."

Jonathan Leinster, Head of UBS European Leisure Research, observed: "The +0.9% like-for-like increase is comparable to the +1.1% recently reported by JD Wetherspoon for the quarter ended October 23. Consumers are still allocating discretionary spend to pubs and restaurants, however, UK pubs stocks have continued on their downward trajectory over the past three months.

"In part, this is due to ongoing concerns over UK consumer spending. However our UK household cash flow indicates that cashflow pre-savings should rise 2.5% in 2012, which would be similar to 2010 and a significant improvement on 2011. We believe that consumers do find value in some of the pub offerings and we maintain 'buy' ratings on JD Wetherspoon, Marston's and Greene King."

Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

[wad collector] 14/10/2011 12:59

I find the brokers earnings forecasts more use than their recommendations.Sure , these are fallible too , but they have more analyst resources than I do.
I am happy to sit on my GNK -5.1% yield - safe sector- always a possibility of a takeover.£5 wouldn't tempt me.

[bend1pa] 10/10/2011 17:09

I don't take too much notice of brokers. Most targeted GNK above 500 last spring. To be fair, it briefly got there end June then fell back quickly again. Didn't see any brokers bar 1 advising a 'sell' once it reached 500 last June.

I'll be looking to sell 490+, and hope it doesn't get there too quickly as I want to be in this for at least a year.

[wad collector] 10/10/2011 12:47

2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Panmure Gordon
06-10-11 BUY 148.00 50.70 24.40 154.00 53.30 25.60
Peel Hunt
06-10-11 BUY 149.53 52.07 23.70 154.65 54.56 24.84
The Royal Bank of Scotland NV
03-10-11 HOLD 145.55 50.68 24.72 154.17 53.68 26.45
Shore Capital
23-09-11 HOLD 151.50 52.40 24.70 156.00 53.90 26.00
Execution Noble
22-09-11 BUY 146.11 50.87 25.00 154.24 53.70 27.00
Investec Securities
16-09-11 SELL 140.00 48.10 23.10 136.10 46.94 23.4

[bend1pa] 05/10/2011 15:00

Correction: RiskMetrics factor for GNK was last computed at 142.

[apad] 05/10/2011 14:49

bend
debt is long-term, covered by property.
Nature of the business I believe.
apad

[bend1pa] 05/10/2011 14:46

Just bought some GNK shares today in a smallish way. Aware of their debt situation but their gearing has improved substantially from where it was 3 years ago. Interesting thing is that Riskmetrics gives them a risk factor of 128. That's unusually low for a company with their size of debt. Would have expected at least 180 - 200. However their operating cashflow seems pretty consistent over the years despite bleak times.

I think GNK will survive, and have basically bought as an income stock (yield currently 6%). Here's hoping that div won't be cut in the short/medium term at least. Only their debt pile remains a possible threat to that at the moment, should they decide to reduce it further

[yf23_1] 13/9/2011 12:38

If you're so sure, go ahead and short it instead of gas bagging.

[dugganjoe] 13/9/2011 09:17

down again

[dugganjoe] 10/9/2011 12:35

3 month libor rising steadily which will make their debt more expensive imho

[hyden] 07/9/2011 19:40

Greene King raised £200m in May 2009 to fund expansion. Greene King has spent £70m to £80m a year out of earnings on doing up its existing estate. Much of the rights issue cash went on premium pubs in London and food-led outlets elsewhere. The shares, not far from where they were a year ago, sell on about nine times this year's earnings and look like one of the best plays in the sector longer-term, although worries over consumer spending may prevail for now, the Times says.

[skyship] 07/9/2011 13:13

dugganjoe - a message for you from the CIC thread:

Dugganjoe - What a total plonker! If you are still around and dare to perhaps give some cogently argued reason for such an absurd opinion - I would be most interested to consider your reasoning.

I suspect however you are just another B/b waste of space...

Try to prove me wrong why don't you.

[jeffian] 06/9/2011 18:56

Pub Partners is the name for GNK's tenanted estate which is quite separate from their Retail (Managed) Estate. It is well known that tenanted estates (ETI, PUB etc.), where the income is derived purely from rent and wholesale beer profits from tenants, are struggling whilst directly Managed pubs (JDW, MAB etc.) are doing relatively well, mainly by offsetting falling drink sales with additional food sales. PUB recognised the problem by splitting themselves into two quite separate businesses recently - Punch (Tenanted) and Spirit (Managed). All the focus of GNK's investment over the past few years has been into the Managed Estate and pure restaurant brands such as Loch Fyne.