Goldenport Share Discussion Threads

[luckyjonah] 03/2/2014 11:36

They may well make a loss in the next 6 months (personally I think they will be close to break-even), however given the cyclical nature of shipping people will buy ahead of individual company results... any sign of continued strength in the BDI, and also specifically other companies in this sector, will see a sharp re-rating upwards IMO. Interesting to note they anticipate dry bulk recovering ahead of containers, I hold similar amounts in GPRT and HCL as I couldn't pick one over the other for the imminent recovery.

[wotreally] 30/1/2014 11:15

Baltic Dry Index is about 30% below the 1500 it should be at, so a quick jump will get renewed interest.

The loss on the sale of recent ship will have been figured into the price already by the brokers.

If other shippers are doing better (see 8th January post)... so will GPRT.

If you are here for 6 months or more, unless price falls to 30p sit all drops out, it will recover.

If you want a quick profit, sell now.

As ever, Wot

[salpara111] 29/1/2014 17:32

Having thought about it, I have decided not to take a stake.
I anticipate that they will report a loss again for the last 6 months especially as they will have to realise the $3.9M loss on the recent ship sale.
In addition the Baltic dry index has taken a hell of a beating over the last month which won't help rates or sentiment.
Ultimately there is a recovery story here but I am not sure that we are at the inflexion point just yet.
Good luck to all holders.

[cjohn] 28/1/2014 10:19

Hi Meijiman,

I have no special knowledge in the field of shipping (I'm an asset focussed value investor). But as I understand it, it's quite usual for the BDI index to be volatile when things begin to recover. In general, I tend to discount short-term movements in indexes as mere noise. Obviously the BDi could go back down below 1000. But the balance of probabilites looks otherwise. Overall, things look rosier now than 6 months ago.

I certainly don't mind anyone telling me to think more or do more research, by the way.

I've followed both HCL and GPRT for a couple of years - but missed buying HCL in the mid-teens. Greedily, I hoped they'd go lower. At current Price, GPRT looks less risky.

[meijiman] 27/1/2014 10:01

I think shipping will be a good strategic recovery story this year. I see that Goldenport has put out an RNS giving the date of the next figures -Feb 3.
CJohn -sorry to sound a bit like a schoolmaster.! THe BDI rallied strongly at the end of last year and perhaps surprisingly dipped in Jan. I believe it will recover strongly as we move further into Q1. I bt Goldenport around 45p but happy to sit and await developments. Guess the other way to play the shipping cycle is to buy a shipping ETF. There is one in the US.
Could have bt Hellenic but liked this one as it has a large family holding plus a dividend payout policy which apears to be flexible. The earnings multiples look attractive. Let's hope for a positive statement on Feb 3rd.

[cjohn] 26/1/2014 10:57

Hello Meijiman, I'm always happy to do more homework. Good advice.

Regarding the Baltic Dry though, I clearly wasn't giving an update on the most reccent moves. Nor do I follow it (or indeed shareprice movements) day-by-day or even week-by-week. A total waste of time. Not homework of any value, in my view, unless you're a very short-term trader.

The BDI rollercoaster is still up significantly over the recent deep lows - that's the point.

And I'm delighted to hear of the posible positive impact of Chinese New Year, particularly as I've bought more here in the last few days.

[jonntara] 24/1/2014 18:09

Sorry shhhh! Quite agree. Have been holding since 2010 so hasn't been a spectacular investment yet but I feel sure it will ultimately come right and I have been averaging down steadily - my holding is 4 times bigger than a year ago. I currently hold a lot of financials and I like the fact that this stock does not seem correlated with them at all.

[meijiman] 24/1/2014 16:16

you will be well rewarded -please don't shout too loud though. I want this to be a well kept secret.

[jonntara] 24/1/2014 15:48

Just picked up another 12000 shares. If it goes down again I will get some more.

[meijiman] 17/1/2014 15:07

suggest you do more homework CJohn. The BDI has taken a tumble lately. However I believe it to be seasonal and it will recover post end of Chinese New Year -which I think starts 31 Jan. Goldenport is a good way to play the shipping recovery story.

[cjohn] 09/1/2014 11:57

Well, the Baltic Dry Index is looking very healthy and there are signs of life in container prices too.

I have a large position here which I accumulated recently. The deep discount to book value is pretty attractive, particularly as sales over the last couple of years have been - overall - at book value and a bit.

[prop_joe] 08/1/2014 08:11

Thanks triktrak.
I see lots of upside here if the shipping market is starting a sustained recovery. I noticed yesterday that the IMF are planning to up their (previously reduced) forecasts for world economic growth in 2014 which supports the outlook statement from Hellenic.

[triktrak] 23/12/2013 04:59

Panmure Gordon towards the end of last week raised its target price for GPRT from 50p to 60p.

[prop_joe] 09/12/2013 16:13

Thanks paxman, that sounds a likely reason for the rise.
I don't use charts other than to see whether a share is trading at a historic low or high. I just use fundamental analysis. On which basis I think goldenport looks very good value.

[paxman] 09/12/2013 15:52

Prop_Joe

Look at the multi-year chart.

Very bullish breakout.

My guess is this has been spotted by automated trading software and hence the purchases.

Combine that with the strong BDI.

[prop_joe] 09/12/2013 15:37

Thanks triktrak,
I saw the article at the weekend and while I thought it was positive. I didn't expect the share price to react like it has today. I wonder if there is anything else in the offing?
I can see the Baltic Dry Index is on the way up but again I wouldn't have expected it to translate into a 10%+ increase in the share price.
Mind you, I'm not complaining!

[triktrak] 09/12/2013 12:28

David Stevenson in the FT on Friday suggested shipping could be recovering and that Goldenport - along with other shipping companies - might be a share to back.

[18bt] 19/11/2013 07:54

IMS today seems to have an excelllent increase in Q3 for the utilisqation rate and forward bookings have increased a lot. Pays more detailed analysis when I have time.

[flamingo93] 19/11/2013 07:53

definately an improvement in rates for the new charters versus earlier in the year.

[the skunk] 17/11/2013 17:13

picked up 10k meself, been adding steadily, steady as she goes. Any real pick-up in world economy reflected in BDI, normally has a positive effect here. The opposite is true of course.

[jonntara] 16/11/2013 09:36

Picked up 6500 shares yesterday. Will continue to drip buy if the price goes lower. This market will turn around sometime and at that time today's prices won't be on the table...