Goldenport Share Discussion Threads

[anusol] 30/8/2013 09:52

One thing puzzles me - looking at long term assets (the boats!) vrs the long term debt, the company seems to have approx £200m of shareholder value i.e. if it sold all the ships at 'book value' then it could pay off debts and be left sat on almost £200k. Yet the company is currently valued at only £33m with 93m shares in issue.
AM I missing something obvious? I know the ships might sell for less than the book value (although no impairments were deemed necessary this time) but?

Is this a case of the company being valued lower than assets because its assumed to be a going concern, losing money and paying what looks like a fairly high interest rate on it's long term debt (and will be in trouble if int rates start rising? as it's going to take 18 years to pay long term debt off)

[valueman6] 30/8/2013 08:25

Had a quick look at the results - am a long term holder (in the red but been averaging down). Although still lossmaking, I interpret the following comments from the update as cautious optimism:
- 'Asset values appear to have turned a corner and are slowly beginning to rise in anticipation of a future recovery in freight rates'
- 'In anticipation of a recovery, we have opted to employ our fleet under 3-6 month time charter'
- 'Net debt to book capitalisation as of 30 June 2013, 49% (31 December 2012: 49%)' IMHO - this is no worse than Dec despite losses
- 'Confidence in the business, political and financial environment is improving'
- 'weighted average age of our dry bulk fleet dropped to 4 years'. (was 11 yrs at Jan'13) - IMHO this is particularly impressive if the metric is like for like
- 'Having concluded the amendment of our loan agreements in early 2013, we are confident that we are well positioned to take advantage of the eventual market recovery'
c1d - your comments on breakup value also make sense (although haven't tried to calculate a figure).
As a PI, I have no idea as to when sentiment will turn but prefer to stay invested as I'd be sure to 'miss the boat' otherwise!

[anusol] 30/8/2013 08:17

Thanks c1d.I sold out few years ago at around 80p but have kept an eye on GPRT. I'm thinking the time might be right to get back in, but there could be another year before any real upturn in SP?And so many other better short tem buys at the moment?

[c1d] 30/8/2013 08:05

My assessment is results reflect difficult trading as expected but they are generating sufficient cash to pay down the debt as it falls due so look like they will still be around to enjoy the good times when the cycle turns (who knows when this will be).
No impairments to the carrying values of the ships was good news, and with the share price way below book value giving a 'margin of safety' I still think this is significantly undervalued.

[anusol] 30/8/2013 07:36

Anyone up to date with GPRT?Interims don't look too good.Bit EBITDA reduction and revenue down 27%.Forward looking statement implies the bad times are not over, so at least another 6 to 12 months of losses on the cards?

[jonntara] 22/8/2013 18:55

Yes c1d I noticed that.

[hmt] 22/8/2013 07:41

Looks like a lot of buying going on before the results next Friday, also being a very il-liquid share , any large volume will push the share price up!, i'am also guessing the results may be inline with expectations, thus allowing further progress with strengthening their balance sheet.

[jonntara] 21/8/2013 21:44

Any clue what happened today? The only thing I saw was the rns advising that they had sold another boat.

[the skunk] 20/8/2013 14:00

Nice tick up so far today. Long may it continue.

[hmt] 04/8/2013 08:26

Kfp, wouldn't personally read too much into ic's view , most of the time they are wrong, yes BDI is not too great , but gprt will reap the rewards on potential and future rise in BDI. I am sure you will recoup and also make money on this, but unfortunately it is a matter of time and more of a waiting game.

[kfp] 03/8/2013 09:12

I dont have much hope for an improvement judging by baltic dry index, I bought these on an IC tip and now they have them as a sell , after they halved !

[hmt] 02/8/2013 13:26

Any views on the results out end of the month anyone?

[jonntara] 27/6/2013 20:19

I agree with both of you. I am slowly adding. If it gets down to 25p I will add some more.

[hmt] 27/6/2013 13:56

C1D, thanks for your view, I hold a few , but am now looking to add, my sentiments are very similar, I think this def has potential to reap the rewards any any future upturn, the positive still lies with its net asset value. Regards hmt

[c1d] 27/6/2013 10:49

I did a back of the envelope liquidation value a couple of months ago and got to an estimate of around 45p per share. When shipping turns around (it is a cyclical industry after all) provided Goldenport is still around it should do well.
I don't think that anyone can predict when this will happen, but because I believe that Goldenport will survive to reap the rewards after years of pain, and if things don't work out as I expect and it goes out of business the breakup value should be higher than the current share price I am happy to hold. My timeframe is years rather than months BTW.

[hmt] 27/6/2013 09:57

Any views on this being a turnaround in the middle to long term?

[jonntara] 07/6/2013 15:27

Just bought nearly 2000 shares at 33.99p. This is one for the patient types. Am a follower of Howard Marks of oaktree capital - his book is really great -and saw that he has been buying some distressed shipping loans from Lloyd's banking group and so I have topped my holding by nearly half. There is value here but I think it will take time to come out.

[wotreally] 23/5/2013 13:55

15 day moving average just crossed 45 day moving average, and approaching the 100 day moving average. Bought some for the long recovery in son's ISA.

[muffster] 17/3/2013 13:14

Bought more, huge valuevjustvawaiting pick up

[anusol] 01/3/2013 08:16

Getting hit this morning yet 2012 going to be as expected. Sounds like shipping is still in the doldrums but they're using this to buy cheap ships which should mean excellent prospects once the shipping rates pick up... Guess its a bide your time strategy here. Not invested but keeping a close eye on things ready for signs of upturn

[the skunk] 24/2/2013 16:27

Been tucking some away steadily now, price action appears linked to BDI action, so any real pick up in world economy should lift these. IMHO.

[499budgie] 22/2/2013 10:18

mulling over buying some more...bring my average down.....looks like we have it a bottom....maybe !

[the skunk] 06/12/2012 18:02

Been here some time too, would like to buy more but will wait for downtrend to stop and an up trend to form beforehand. No point in catching a falling knife.